加布里埃尔·迪尼兹·塔瓦雷斯、奥古斯托·德克尔根据最新公布的两项民调,在巴西准备于周日举行投票之际,总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦与右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博索纳罗势均力敌。
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro remain locked in a tight race as Brazil prepares to vote in Sunday’s election, according to a pair of new polls.
《圣保罗页报》周六公布的一项Datafolha调查显示,在不计空白票和无效票的情况下,如果进入第一轮投票,卢拉将获得45%的有效票,博索纳罗将获得42%。
Lula would receive 45% to Bolsonaro’s 42% of valid votes, excluding blank and invalid ballots, in a first round scenario, a Datafolha survey published Saturday found, according to Folha de S.Paulo newspaper.
Quaest的一项民调显示,在第一轮投票中,左翼总统卢拉将以46%的有效票领先博索纳罗的45%。该调查由环球电视台委托开展。
The leftist president would take 46% to Bolsonaro’s 45% of valid votes in the first round, a Quaest poll said, according to Globo, which commissioned the survey.
如果第一轮投票中没有候选人获得过半票数,得票率最高的两人将晋级10月25日的决选。
If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, the top two will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25.
Datafolha的民调显示,在决选情景下,计入空白票和无效票前,卢拉的投票意向率为47%,博索纳罗为46%;与上次民调相比,变化幅度均未超过正负2个百分点的误差范围。
Lula has 47% to Bolsonaro’s 46% of voting intentions in a runoff scenario before blank and invalid ballots are excluded, the Datafolha poll showed, with changes from the prior survey within the margin of error of plus or minus 2 points.
Quaest的民调显示,在决选情景下,博索纳罗的投票意向率为44%,卢拉为42%,两者差距未超过该机构正负2个百分点的误差范围。
Quaest’s poll found Bolsonaro with 44% to Lula’s 42% of voting intentions in a runoff, within its margin of error of plus of minus 2 points.
各项民调始终表明,卢拉与前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的长子博索纳罗正处于势均力敌的胶着状态。
Polls have consistently suggested that Lula and Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, are locked in a tight contest.
这场竞争将决定巴西是否会加入区域政治右转的浪潮。此前,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的保守派盟友已在智利、哥伦比亚和秘鲁的近期选举中获胜。
The race is set to determine whether Brazil will join a regional rightward shift that has seen conservative allies of US President Donald Trump win recent elections in Chile, Colombia and Peru.
市场将密切关注第一轮投票的票数差距,以判断哪名候选人的势头更有可能延续到潜在的决选阶段。
Markets will be watching the first round margins closely for clues on how much momentum either candidate will carry into a potential runoff.
巴西的选举竞争屡遭一宗重大银行欺诈案搅动,该案件的核心人物是已遭羁押的Banco Master SA前老板丹尼尔·沃尔卡鲁。
Brazil’s contest has been repeatedly upended by a major bank fraud case centered on Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed former owner of Banco Master SA.
警方正在调查弗拉维奥·博索纳罗与这位银行家的往来。此前,博索纳罗曾向沃尔卡鲁寻求资金,用于拍摄一部关于其父亲的影片。这位保守派挑战者否认存在不当行为。
Police are probing Flávio Bolsonaro’s dealings with the banker, after he approached Vorcaro for funding for a film about his father. The conservative challenger denies wrongdoing.
与此同时,卢拉因相关披露而受到牵连,这些披露将最高法院与丑闻联系起来,激发了反建制情绪。
Lula, meanwhile, has suffered from revelations tying the Supreme Court to the scandal, which has stoked anti-establishment sentiment.
在竞选的最后几周,总统提高了政府旗舰社会项目的福利待遇,以争取重获势头。他还禁止网络赌博,以应对家庭债务不断攀升的问题。
In the final weeks of the campaign, the president boosted benefits under the government’s flagship social program in a bid to regain momentum. He also banned online gambling to address concerns over mounting levels of household debt.