距离选举日仅剩不到一个月，两党的各项财政决策似乎表明，当前的关键问题并非民主党能否掌控众议院，而是其能获得多大的多数优势。
With just under a month to go until Election Day, financial decisions made by both parties appear to suggest the question being asked is not if Democrats take control of the House, but how large the majority may be.
目前，共和党在众议院的席位优势微弱，以218对214略占上风。2025年2月，《库克政治报告》对中期选举的初步评估显示，仅有39个选区被认定为竞争激烈，其中18个属于“胜负难料”的选区。如今这一数据有所变化：目前该报告将43个选区列为竞争激烈的选区，其中22个为胜负难料之地。除此之外，从深层层面来看，民主党和共和党的相关组织正投入数亿美元资金，试图影响范围更为广泛的选举格局。
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 seat advantage. In February 2025, the Cook Political Report's initial ratings for the midterms found a small slice of 39 races listed as competitive, with 18 classified as "toss-ups." That topline number has shifted, with Cook currently listing 43 districts as competitive, including 22 toss-ups. But beyond that, under the hood, Democratic and Republican groups are marshalling hundreds of millions of dollars to influence an electoral landscape that is much larger.
NPR对两党的竞选目标、未来的广告投放计划以及与特朗普立场一致的超级政治行动委员会的支出情况进行了分析，发现有90多个选区在中期选举的最后几周内获得了大量资源投入。以下将介绍那些将决定2027年众议院控制权归属的关键选区。
An NPR analysis of both parties' campaign targets, future ad reservations and outside spending by Trump-aligned super PACs finds more than 90 districts where resources are being committed in the closing weeks of the midterms. Here's a look at the types of races that will decide who controls the House in 2027.
表面上看竞争激烈的选区：如果2024年总统选举时的政治环境保持不变，那么无论怎样都会有一小部分众议院选区处于激烈竞争状态，比如那些选民投票支持某一政党总统候选人、却选择了另一政党众议员候选人的10个选区。（此处未计入过去18个月内因选区重划而发生变化的选区，相关情况下文会详述）这些选区包括纽约州共和党众议员迈克·劳勒所在的第17选区、宾夕法尼亚州共和党众议员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克所在的第1选区，以及华盛顿州民主党众议员玛丽·格卢森坎普·佩雷斯所在的第3选区。
另一类选区在2024年的选举中胜负差距极小：比如加利福尼亚州第13选区，民主党众议员亚当·格雷仅以不到200票的微弱优势胜出；艾奥瓦州第1选区，共和党众议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯也仅以799票的差距险胜。
Competitive races on paper If the political environment remained unchanged from the 2024 presidential election, a small group of House races would be competitive no matter what, like the 10 districts that voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee. (Not counting those changed by redistricting in the last 18 months, but more on that below) That includes the seats held by New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17), Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) and Washington state Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03).Another group of seats had very close margins in 2024, like Democratic Rep. Adam Gray's victory by fewer than 200 votes in California's 13th Congressional District and a 799 vote victory for Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st Congressional District.
政治：动荡的国会初选季以创纪录的辞职和落败告终，但如今的政治环境与2024年已大不相同。特朗普总统在选民中的不受欢迎程度已创下历史新高，强烈反对他工作表现的选民比例高于其两个任期的任何时期。
Politics A tumultuous congressional primary season closes with record departures and defeats But this is not the same political environment as 2024. President Trump's unpopularity with voters has reached record highs, with the share of voters who strongly disapprove of his job performance sitting higher than any point in either term in office.
选民对持续的中东战争、不断上涨的油价、关税和移民执法问题感到不满，加上反现任官员情绪的蔓延，导致创纪录数量的国会议员宣布退休，同时今年也有多位在任议员在初选中落败。
Voters are unhappy with the ongoing war in Iran, rising gas prices, tariffs and immigration enforcement, and a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment has driven a record number of Congressional retirement announcements along with a number of sitting lawmakers losing their primary races this year.
选区重划进一步打乱了格局：一场选区重划的“军备竞赛”导致多个州约十分之一的选民所属选区被重新划分。
Redistricting Further scrambling the map: a redistricting arms race that resulted in new district lines for an estimated 1 in 10ed voters across several states.
在特朗普的敦促下，甚至在一些情况下受到其威胁，共和党主导的州立法机构试图绘制新的众议院选区地图，以在得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等州赢得更多席位，而民主党则在加利福尼亚州予以反击。
Republican-led state legislatures, at Trump's urging and in some cases threats, tried to draw new House maps that would give them multiple additional seats in states like Texas and Florida, while Democrats countered in California.
然而，许多新的选区划分都基于对2024年支持特朗普总统的选民在2026年投票行为的假设，而在某些情况下，这种做法可能会适得其反。
But many of the new district lines were drawn with assumptions made about voters who backed President Trump in 2024 and what they would do in 2026, and in some cases, could backfire.
仅NPR报道：中期选举中，特朗普始终萦绕在选民心头——而他们的态度并不友好，民调显示。根据Strength in Numbers/Verasight向NPR提供的民调数据，在佛罗里达州南部以及得克萨斯州与墨西哥边境地区新划分的选区（如TX-28和FL-25），特朗普的工作支持率低于平均水平。
Only on NPR Trump is on voters' minds in the midterms — and they're not happy, poll shows According to Strength in Numbers/Verasight polling data shared with NPR, Trump has lower-than-average job approval in communities that make up newly-redrawn districts in South Florida and along the Texas-Mexico border, like TX-28 and FL-25.
在北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区，民主党众议员唐·戴维斯看到，这个特朗普在2024年以微弱优势赢得的选区变得更加保守。然而，全国性的政治环境——以及一项民意调查显示民主党籍前州长罗伊·库珀领先的美国参议院竞选——使这场竞争变得更加激烈。从现在到选举日，这个位于乡村和沿海地区的选区计划投入超过2000万美元用于广告预订，使其成为全国最昂贵的众议院竞选之一。
In North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, Democrat Rep. Don Davis saw his district that Trump narrowly carried in 2024 become even more conservative. But the national environment — and a U.S. Senate race where polls show Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper leading — has made the contest more competitive. More than $20 million in ad reservations are scheduled between now and Election Day in the rural and coastal district, making it one of the most expensive House races in the country.
追踪资金与宣传信息：在选举冲刺的最后阶段，有60个选区被民主党国会竞选委员会和共和党国会竞选委员会，以及“No Going Back”等与特朗普立场一致的超级政治行动委员会列为优先目标。
Following the money and messaging Heading into the final electoral sprint, there are sixty districts that are listed as priorities of both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee along with Trump-aligned super PACs like No Going Back.
平均而言，这些选区在2024年以8%的差距投票支持特朗普，凸显了竞争性选区已深入保守地区。
On average, those districts voted for Trump by an 8% margin in 2024, highlighting how deep into conservative areas competitive races have moved.
民主党国会竞选委员会（DCCC）的“战场地图”上列有超过90个选区，其中包括“红转蓝”计划中旨在翻盘的46个目标选区、26位可能面临激烈竞争的“前线”现任议员，以及另外19个被视为“有竞争力的选区”。
The DCCC has more than 90 districts on its battlefield map, including 46 targets to flip in its "Red To Blue" program, 26 "Frontline" incumbents in potentially tight races and another 19 it considers "Districts In Play."
共和党国会竞选委员会（NRCC）的“爱国者”名单上列有17位可能落败的现任议员，另有27名候选人参与开放选区的竞选，或作为“MAGA多数派”计划的一部分挑战民主党现任议员。
The NRCC has 17 districts on its "Patriots" list of vulnerable incumbents to support and another 27 candidates in open races or challenging Democratic incumbents as part of the "MAGA Majority" program.
并非所有竞选最终都会势均力敌，或导致政党控制权发生转变。DCCC名单中的许多“有竞争力的选区”在2024年投票给特朗普的比例接近60%，且几乎没有收到任何政党的广告投入。
Not every race will ultimately end up close or see party control change hands. Many of the DCCC's "Districts In Play" gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little-to-no ad spend from either party.
此外，还有像肯塔基州第六国会选区这样的例子：尽管特朗普在该选区以15个百分点的优势获胜，但仍有数百万美元的广告资金从两党涌入，包括来自与特朗普立场一致的超级政治行动委员会的资金。
Then, there are races like Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, where millions of dollars in spending has poured in from both parties — including from Trump-aligned super PACS — in a district Trump won by 15 points.
在特朗普同样以15个百分点优势获胜的阿肯色州第二国会选区，针对民主党候选人克里斯·琼斯并支持现任众议员弗伦奇·希尔的六位数外部支出，促使美国民主党国会竞选委员会（DCCC）将该选区列入其“从红到蓝”目标名单。
In Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, which Trump also won by 15 points, six-figure outside spending targeting Democratic nominee Chris Jones and boosting incumbent Rep. French Hill contributed to the DCCC adding that race to its "Red To Blue" target.
距离中期选举不到一个月，民主党在选举中的优势已十分明显。根据Ballotpedia的追踪数据，DCCC和共和党全国竞选委员会（NRCC）制定的目标名单通常范围更广，但实际成效有限。从2012年到2024年，民主党在其目标选区中总共赢得了34%，而共和党则赢得了29%。
Elections Democrats' advantage is clear with less than a month to go in the midterm elections According to Ballotpedia tracking, the target lists compiled by the DCCC and NRCC are usually broader in their scope and limited in their success. From 2012-2024, the Democrats won a total of 34% of its target districts and Republicans won 29%.
广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据显示，在一些选区和地区，共和党和民主党已开始取消今年剩余时间的广告预订，尽管原因各不相同。共和党最引人注目的例子是停止向北卡罗来纳州参议院选区投入资金，并将资金转向堪萨斯州。
In some races and places, Republicans and Democrats are beginning to pull back ad reservations for the rest of the year, according to data from ad tracking firm AdImpact, though for different reasons. The most high profile example for Republicans is halting the flow of money in the North Carolina Senate race and redirecting funds to Kansas.
一些众议院选区也出现了类似的广告取消情况，例如内布拉斯加州第二选区的空缺席位，该选区既是DCCC“从红到蓝”的目标，也是NRCC“MAGA多数派”的目标。
Some House races have seen similar cancellations, too, like the open race in Nebraska's 2nd District that is both a DCCC Red To Blue and NRCC MAGA Majority target.
尽管如此，数据显示，从现在到选举日，仍有近5亿美元的广告预订已经完成，这表明在这场中期选举中，两大党都没有掉以轻心。
Still, that data shows close to half a billion dollars in ad reservations have been placed between now and Election Day, showing that in this midterm election neither party is taking anything for granted.