伊朗正在加强防御,动员忠诚分子,并威胁对美国及其海湾盟友采取更广泛、更严厉的回应,因为它正在为中期选举后可能发生的美国袭击做准备,并试图威慑这些袭击。伊朗官员在公开场合以及与地区官员的私下对话中警告称,如果美国发动新的袭击,伊斯兰共和国将在中东地区进一步升级冲突。卫星图像显示,伊朗正在加强敏感地点的防御,包括核设施和边境地区,以使其更能抵御袭击。
Iran is fortifying its defenses, rallying loyalists and threatening a wider, harsher response against the U.S. and its Gulf allies as it prepares for potential American attacks after the midterms and seeks to deter them. Iranian officials have warned publicly and in private conversations with regional officials that the Islamic Republic will respond with further escalation across the Middle East if the U.S. launches new strikes. Satellite images show Iran is strengthening sensitive locations, including nuclear sites and border areas, to make them more resilient to attacks.
政府也在为伊朗人准备重新爆发战争,派遣准军事力量到幼儿园讲战争故事,宣传肩防防空导弹的射击训练,并举行集会。伊朗对抗先进美国喷气式战机、高空轰炸机或巡航导弹的攻击能力有限,这使其有动机通过威慑来阻止此类袭击。这种咄咄逼人的语气也起到了转移注意力的作用,以掩盖伊朗人因美国加强制裁和施压航空公司不飞往该国而导致的封锁日益收紧所带来的日益深重的经济困苦。
The government is also preparing Iranians for renewed war, sending paramilitary forces to read war stories to kindergartners, advertising training in firing shoulder-mounted antiaircraft missiles and holding rallies. Iran has little ability to defend against attacks from advanced U.S. jets, high-altitude bombers or cruise missiles, giving it an incentive to try to deter such attacks with threats. The belligerent tone also serves as a distraction from the deepening economic misery Iranians are experiencing as the U.S. toughens sanctions and pressures airlines not to fly to the country, tightening the blockade.
伦敦皇家国际事务研究所中东主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔表示:“目前由于在外交、经济和政治等多个方面陷入僵局,战争状态对他们来说暂时是有利的。”“如果爆发新战争,伊斯兰共和国可能会摆脱它自己制造的死胡同。”为威慑潜在袭击,一些伊朗官员暗示,他们的部队可能会对邻国进行陆地渗透,这是熟悉这些警告的人透露的。
“The war footing is serving them well for now due to an impasse on many fronts—diplomatically, economically and politically,” said Sanam Vakil, Middle East director at London’s Chatham House think tank. “With a new war, the Islamic Republic could dig itself out of the cul-de-sac it has dug for itself.”In an attempt to deter a potential attack, some Iranian officials have hinted that their forces could conduct land incursions into neighboring countries, according to people familiar with the warnings.
伊朗最高国家安全官员莫赫森·雷扎伊周日表示,德黑兰可能会瞄准阿拉伯联合酋长国——该国自晚春以来基本未遭袭击——以及该地区的数据中心和互联网电缆。
Iran’s top national security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said on Sunday that Tehran could target the United Arab Emirates, which has largely escaped being attacked since late spring, as well as data centers and internet cables across the region.
德黑兰已单独警告阿拉伯官员称,若冲突重新爆发,它可能对包括沙特阿拉伯石油设施在内的地区目标发动袭击,一些知情人士表示。这将增加沙特阿拉伯面临的威胁,该威胁来自也门的伊朗支持的胡塞武装分子,他们在周末袭击了该国首都的国际机场。美国军方也一直在为可能重返战场做准备。第三艘航空母舰打击群和另一支海军陆战队远征部队正驶向中东,五角大楼正在考虑向该地区基地增派防空装备和弹药,《华尔街日报》曾这样报道。
Tehran has separately warned Arab officials that it could strike regional targets including Saudi oil facilities in the event of a renewed conflict, some of the people said. That would add to the threat Saudi Arabia faces from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, who attacked its capital’s international airport over the weekend. The U.S. military has itself been gearing up for a possible return to fighting. A third aircraft carrier strike group and another Marine expeditionary unit are steaming toward the Middle East, and the Pentagon is weighing sending additional air-defense equipment and munitions to bases in the region, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
尽管特朗普总统上周排除了在11月3日中期选举前发动攻击的可能性,但他公开表示正在考虑袭击伊朗的“鹤嘴锄山”核设施,美国官员表示,军方正在为新一轮打击准备多种选择。双方为增强作战能力所做的努力凸显了这样一个事实:战争已进入第七个多月,双方均认为没有必要放弃一场基本陷入僵局的冲突。相反,双方都在试图以有利于自己的方式打破僵局。
While President Trump last week ruled out an attack before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, he has publicly mulled hitting Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, and U.S. officials have said that the military is preparing a range of options for new strikes. The efforts by both sides to shore up their fighting capacity underscore how, more than seven months into the war, neither side feels compelled to give up a fight that is largely deadlocked. Instead, both are trying to break the logjam in their favor.
美国正加大经济施压力度,并成功地引导油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗则加大了对波斯湾地区船只的袭击力度。英国海上贸易行动(该机构隶属于英国皇家海军)称,周末在霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区,至少有三艘商船被击中。周日,一起无人机袭击导致阿曼附近的阿联酋油轮“海豚石油”起火,两名印度水手失踪。胡塞武装分子对利雅得机场的导弹袭击造成至少13人死亡、数百人受伤,这是伊朗战争相关冲突中对美国或其海湾盟友的单次最致命袭击,袭击发生在周六。
The U.S. has ramped up its economic pressure campaign and is guiding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with increasing success. Iran has stepped up its strikes on vessels in the Persian Gulf area. At least three commercial vessels were hit over the weekend in and around the strait, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with the Royal Navy. A drone attack set a fire on Emirati tanker Petro Dolphin near Oman on Sunday, leaving two Indian sailors missing. The missile attack by Houthi militants on the airport in Riyadh killed at least 13 people and injured hundreds more on Saturday, the single deadliest attack on the U.S. or its Gulf allies in the conflicts related to the Iran war.
这些攻击凸显了,如果特朗普决定恢复战斗,该地区主要经济目标的脆弱性。根据一些熟悉警告的人士透露,政府还告诉调解人,它将更积极地针对美国人员,包括试图在中东击沉美国军舰并杀死船员。伊朗导弹在9月的袭击期间曾接近美国军舰。五角大楼上周因担心伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队策划了无人机袭击,将一 dozen 架B-1轰炸机从英国军事基地调走。
The attacks highlighted the vulnerability of major economic targets in the region if Trump decides to resume fighting. The government has also told mediators that it would more aggressively target U.S. personnel, including by trying to sink U.S. warships in the Middle East and kill their crews, according to some of the people familiar with the warnings. Iranian missiles came close to American warships during attacks in September. The Pentagon moved a dozen B-1 bomber aircraft from a U.K. military base last week over concerns that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had planned a drone attack.
自特朗普在7月下旬叫停了大规模升级计划以来,美伊之间的直接冲突基本处于停滞状态,部分原因是人们担心需要用于防御该地区各目标的导弹拦截弹药供应,华尔街日报曾这样报道。伊朗利用这段停火期重建了其导弹和无人机设施,并补充了武器库存。伊朗最高领袖莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊赞扬了这项工作,但在早些时候由与革命卫队有关联的新闻媒体发表的言论中承认了供应链困难。
Direct fighting between the U.S. and Iran has largely been on hold since Trump called off plans for a major escalation in late July, partly because of concerns about supplies of missile interceptors needed to defend targets across the region, the Journal has reported. Iran has used the pause to rebuild its missile and drone facilities and replenish its arsenal. Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, praised the work but acknowledged supply-chain struggles in early September comments published by news outlets linked to the Revolutionary Guard.
伊朗还加强了对其核设施及其他与安全相关的掩体的防护。上个月,根据华盛顿特区非营利组织“科学与国际安全研究所”分析的Vantor卫星图像,伊朗在其斧头山和纳坦兹核设施周围建造了诸如临时土堆之类的被动防御措施,以阻止任何地面部队的突袭企图。伊朗官员正在宣传他们的努力。该国的机场、海港和电厂“已做好战时条件的准备”,安装了避难所和备用物资,以便在危机中继续运作,负责该国应急计划的官员、准将戈拉姆雷扎·贾利利在9月底对记者这样说道。国营媒体还一直在每日播放亲政府集会的画面。
Iran has also reinforced protection around its nuclear sites and other security-related bunkers. Last month, it built passive defense measures such as makeshift dirt mounds around its Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites to impede any attempted raid by ground forces, according to Vantor satellite images analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit. Iranian officials are touting their efforts. The country’s airports, seaports and power plants “have prepared for wartime conditions,” installing shelters and backup supplies to continue operating in a crisis, Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Jalali, the official in charge of the country’s contingency plans, told reporters at the end of September. State media has also been broadcasting daily pro-regime gatherings.
伊朗居民表示,最近几周人群规模不断扩大,并蔓延到更多地点。一位参加示威的强硬派神职人员表示,他预计战争将重新爆发,而伊朗将赢得胜利。该神职人员在接受采访时表示,外交手段已经失效,因此伊朗别无选择,只能进行战斗。德黑兰的广告牌如今宣传平民使用肩射防空导弹和狙击步枪的培训课程。上个月,伊斯兰革命卫队自豪地宣布,根据其精锐部队“法泰因”(Fatehin)发布的影像,该部队已完成首支女兵突击队的训练,内容包括游击战术、枪械使用和无人机驾驶。
Iranian residents say the crowds have grown bigger and spread to more locations in recent weeks.A hard-line cleric who joined the demonstrations said he expected the war to restart and Iran to win it. Diplomacy hasn’t worked, the cleric said in an interview, so Iran has no other choice but to fight. Billboards in Tehran now advertise civilian training courses in the use of shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles and sniper rifles. Last month, the Revolutionary Guard boasted that it had trained its first female commando units in guerrilla tactics, firearms use and drone piloting, according to footage posted by the Fatehin, an elite unit of Iran’s Basij volunteer defense forces.
在伊朗东北部城市萨布泽瓦尔,革命卫队的一个分队访问了一所幼儿园,向孩子们讲述了今年早些时候的战斗故事,并展示了该分队声称已成功拦截的一枚美国“战斧”导弹,这一情况出现在该部队地面部队的社交媒体账号上。“无论是言行,伊斯兰共和国都在积极为下一场战争做准备,”民主防卫基金会伊朗问题项目高级主任贝纳姆·本·塔勒布(Behnam Ben Taleblu)表示。
In Sabzevar, a city in northeastern Iran, a Revolutionary Guard unit visited a kindergarten and told the children stories about the fighting earlier this year and displayed a U.S. Tomahawk missile that the unit said it had neutralized, according to the social-media account of the guard’s ground forces.“In both word and deed, the Islamic Republic is actively preparing for the next war,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank.
“从这个意义上说,该政权的举措既具有威慑作用,也是战争计划的一部分。”请写信至 benoit.faucon@wsj.com 联系伯努瓦·福康(Benoit Faucon)。
“In this sense the regime’s measures constitute both deterrence and war planning.”Write to Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com