在过去的72小时里，唐纳德·特朗普彻底撕下了所有伪装，毁掉了数十年的美国政策，并破坏了他自己长达18个月的外交努力。他取消了对俄罗斯柴油进口的制裁，这违反了他亲自签署的法律的字面规定和精神。他威胁称，除非乌克兰同意不把俄罗斯的炼油厂作为打击目标，否则将停止与乌克兰共享情报，从而要求基辅放弃其最有效的武器，却不要求俄罗斯付出任何代价。
In the past 72 hours, Donald Trump has dropped all pretense, torched a couple decades of American policy, and undermined 18 months of his own diplomacy. He lifted sanctions on the import of Russian diesel fuel, in violation of the letter and spirit of laws that he himself signed. He has threatened to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine, unless Ukraine agrees not to target Russian refineries, thus demanding that Kyiv give up its most effective weapon while asking nothing from Russia in exchange.
他没有批评俄罗斯对乌克兰发电厂或工厂的袭击，甚至对美国公司拥有的设施也未予批评。对于最近乌克兰儿童在俄罗斯轰炸中丧生一事，他没有表达任何哀悼。
He has not criticized Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants or factories, even those owned by American companies. He has offered no condolences for the recent deaths of Ukrainian children in Russian bombing raids.
他屡次说谎。他宣称乌克兰和俄罗斯已经同意实施“能源停火”，这一宣布让乌克兰人感到意外，而且俄罗斯人无论如何也立即打破了这一停火，仅仅几个小时后就袭击了哈尔科夫的一座发电厂。他指责乌克兰阻挠谈判，而现实情况是，乌克兰人曾多次提议停火，而俄罗斯从未同意过停火或任何实质性谈判。
He has lied repeatedly. He declared that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an “energy cease-fire,” an announcement that surprised the Ukrainians and that in any case the Russians immediately broke, hitting a power plant in Kharkiv only hours later. He accused Ukraine of blocking negotiations, when in reality the Ukrainians have repeatedly proposed cease-fires and Russia has never agreed to a cease-fire or any meaningful negotiation at all.
他将乌克兰通过民主选举产生的总统描述为谈判的障碍，并叫他下台。但在周五，在做出这些新决定之前，他又与这位实际上今天就能结束战争的俄罗斯独裁者进行了一场漫长而友好的电话交谈。弗拉基米尔·普京只需命令他的士兵停止战斗，战争就会结束。乌克兰人不能停止战斗，因为如果他们这样做，他们的国家就会被征服，他们将遭受被占领土的命运：领导人被谋杀、儿童被绑架，其余所有人则面临镇压和集中营。如果特朗普知道这一点，那说明他根本不在乎。
He has described Ukraine’s democratically elected president as an obstacle to negotiations and told him to leave office. But on Friday, before making these new decisions, he held yet another long, friendly telephone conversation with the Russian dictator, who really could end the war today. All Vladimir Putin has to do is tell his soldiers to stop fighting, and then the war is over. The Ukrainians cannot stop fighting because, if they do, their country will be conquered and they will suffer the fate of their occupied territories: leaders murdered, children kidnapped, repression and concentration camps for everyone else. If Trump knows this, then he does not care.
总统暗示，他新政策的目的是为美国人降低燃料价格。或许他是想让选民相信，高价的根源是乌克兰，而不是他在伊朗发动的由自己选择的战争。但这并不是这些剧烈举动的充分解释或理由。俄罗斯能够出口的燃料数量太少，对定价的影响太微弱，这一叙事也为时已晚，无法塑造选举结果。
The president has implied that the point of his new policy is to lower fuel prices for Americans. Perhaps he wants to convince voters that the cause of high prices is Ukraine and not his own war of choice in Iran. But this is not a sufficient explanation or justification for these dramatic actions. The amount of fuel that Russia could export is too small, the impact on pricing too slight, the narrative too late to shape electoral outcomes.
相反，这看起来像是完全不同的事：这是一次突如其来的、绝望的尝试，旨在迫使乌克兰投降并拯救俄罗斯经济，或许是为了最终完成俄罗斯人已知曾与美国谈判代表及特朗普核心圈子的其他人讨论过的多项商业交易。其中包括涉及“北溪”天然气管道、北极矿产开采、欧洲银行冻结的俄罗斯资产等交易。
This looks, instead, like something very different: an abrupt, Hail Mary attempt to force Ukraine to surrender and to save the Russian economy, perhaps in order to finally complete the multiple business deals that the Russians are known to have discussed with American negotiators and others in Trump’s orbit. These include deals involving the Nord Stream gas pipelines, mineral mining in the Arctic, the Russian assets frozen in European banks, and more.
自特朗普第二个任期开始以来，欧洲及其他地区的美国盟友一直试图向总统解释这场战争的意义，以及俄罗斯对欧洲、中东、非洲的和平与繁荣构成的威胁。现在看来他们失败了，特朗普遵循了他最古老的本能，站在了普京一边。他们会从中吸取什么教训？
Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, American allies in Europe and elsewhere have tried to explain to the president the significance of the war and the threat that Russia poses to peace and prosperity in Europe, in the Middle East, in Africa. Now it looks as if they have failed, and Trump has followed his oldest instincts to side with Putin. What lessons will they draw?
第一条也是最明显的一条是：美国现在是一个反复无常、不可预测的大国，其长期奉行的外交政策可能会在一夜之间被冲动地逆转。美国多年来一直对俄罗斯实施制裁，而现在突然之间，随着总统的一时兴起，制裁不复存在了。还有：加拿大对美国来说是一个比俄罗斯可靠得多的能源伙伴，然而特朗普并未寻求改善与加拿大政府的关系。在乌克兰崩溃或投降的情况下，欧洲安全将直接面临风险，然而特朗普听取的是莫斯科的意见，而不是柏林或伦敦的意见。
The first and most obvious is:. America is now a capricious, unpredictable power, one whose long-standing foreign policies can be impulsively reversed, from one day to the next. The U.S. has been sanctioning Russia for many years, and now suddenly, at the whim of the president, it is not. Also: . Canada is a far more reliable energy partner for the U.S. than Russia, and yet Trump has not sought to improve relations with the Canadian government. European security will be directly at risk in the case of a Ukrainian collapse or surrender, and yet Trump listens to Moscow, not Berlin or London.
另一个教训是：几天前，据报道，作为美俄和平谈判的一部分，一家俄罗斯公司——卢克油（Lukoil）的资产可能很快会被一个商业财团收购，该财团包括特朗普两位乌克兰问题首席谈判代表——贾里德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）和史蒂夫·维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）的中东合作伙伴，以及特朗普的女儿伊万卡（Ivanka）和维特科夫的儿子。
Another lesson: .
（一位政府官员向该报证实，库什纳和维特科夫参与了有关卢克油的讨论，尽管没有证据表明他们将从中获得个人利益。）关于管道、矿产和被冻结资产的拟议交易也仍在考虑之中。即便这些交易最终一项都没有完成，仅仅是特朗普的谈判代表讨论这些交易这一事实，就让俄罗斯政权有理由相信它可以肆无忌惮地继续这场战争。
A few days ago, reported that, as part of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, the property of Lukoil, a Russian company, may soon be acquired by a business consortium that includes Middle Eastern partners of Trump’s two lead negotiators in Ukraine, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, as well as Trump’s daughter Ivanka and Witkoff’s son. (An administration official confirmed to the that Kushner and Witkoff were involved in the Lukoil discussions, though there is no evidence that they will personally benefit.) The proposed deals on pipelines, minerals, and frozen assets are also still on the table. Even if none of them is ever completed, the mere fact that Trump’s negotiators discuss them gives the Russian regime reason to believe that it can continue the war with impunity.
然而，。乌克兰将继续战斗，并且凭借其在欧洲及其他地区的盟友的支持，很可能会继续打击俄罗斯的炼油厂。法国的情报、德国的武器，以及来自斯堪的纳维亚、波兰和其他地方的大规模援助包都将发挥作用。其他所有人都应该注意这一点。在过去几年里，欧洲人、加拿大人和太平洋地区的民主国家一直在彼此之间，以及与印度和拉丁美洲建立更深层次的商业和安全联系。他们刚刚又得到了一个让这些联系变得更加紧密的新理由。
However, . Ukraine will continue fighting, and will probably continue striking Russian refineries, thanks to its friends in Europe and beyond. French intelligence, German weaponry, and broad packages of aid from Scandinavia, Poland, and elsewhere will help. Everyone else should take note. For the past couple years, Europeans, Canadians, and the Pacific democracies have been building deeper commercial and security links with one another, as well as with India and Latin America. They’ve just been given another reason to make those links stronger.
归根结底，无论谁是领导者，特朗普总是采纳俄罗斯的视角。自1987年他首次访问当时还是苏联的莫斯科以来，他就一直在大声重复俄罗斯的宣传并反映俄罗斯的观点。在那次访问返回后，他在三家报纸上刊登了整版广告，攻击美国在欧洲和亚州的同盟。近40年来，他一直在表达大致相同的观点。他在堕胎和加密货币问题上的看法已经改变，他在不同时期支持过不同的政党，但他对美国民主盟友的厌恶以及对俄罗斯的偏爱却异常地坚定一致。
In the end, Trump always adopts Russia’s perspective, whoever the leader. Since his first trip to Moscow in 1987, when it was still the Soviet Union, he has loudly repeated Russian propaganda and reflected Russian views. Upon returning from that trip, he took out full-page s in three newspapers, attacking American alliances in Europe and Asia. For nearly 40 years, he has been saying much the same thing. He has changed his mind about abortion and crypto, he has supported different political parties at different times, but his dislike of America’s democratic allies and his preference for Russia has remained remarkably consistent.
尽管遭到美国军方、美国情报部门以及国内和国会多数派的反对，他依然坚持这些观点。就在他发表关于柴油的言论以及关于弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的评论后不久，一群两党美国众议员和参议员便抨击了这项协议并誓言要将其推翻。今天早些时候，美国驻欧洲最高军事长官、北约最高司令——这一职位历来由美国人担任——美国空军将领阿历克苏斯·格林克维奇向俄罗斯传递了截然不同的信息。
He continues to hold these views in defiance of the American military and American intelligence, as well as majorities in the country and in Congress. Immediately after his statement on diesel and his comments about Volodymyr Zelensky, a bipartisan cohort of U.S. representatives and senators attacked the deal and vowed to reverse it. Earlier today, U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, America’s highest-ranking soldier in Europe and the top NATO commander—a job always held by an American—delivered a very different message to Russia.
格林克维奇在华沙的一次安全会议上发言时表示，任何针对北约的攻击——许多人现在对此感到真正的担忧——都将遭到压倒性武力的回击：“我们将阻止攻击，并剥夺他们实现其目标的（无论这些目标是什么）能力。简而言之，我们将确保针对任何盟友的任何攻击都彻底徒劳。”他暗示，将对“支持、维持和控制”侵略力量的“任何和所有事物”进行大规模报复。
Speaking at a security conference in Warsaw, Grynkewich said that any attack on NATO, something many now genuinely fear, would be met with overwhelming force: “We will stop the attack and deny them the ability to achieve their objectives, whatever those might be. We will, in short, ensure any attack, against any ally, proves utterly futile.”He implied that there would be massive retaliation targeting “anything and everything that supports, sustains, and controls” an aggressive force.
如果这种言辞也出自白宫之口，可能会威慑俄罗斯，使其不敢扩大目前在欧洲的破坏和网络攻击行动，不敢继续援助伊朗，或不敢在乌克兰犯下战争罪行。但这位总统绝对拒绝使用这种言辞，而且就目前而言，我们只能假设他永远不会使用。
This is the kind of language that, if it also came from the White House, might deter Russia from expanding its current campaign of sabotage and cyberattacks in Europe, from continuing to aid Iran, or from committing war crimes in Ukraine. But this president absolutely refuses to use it, and at this point, we have to assume he never will.