你好。人工智能交易的全球抛售正促使投资者涌入政府债券。随着利率上升引发对数十亿投入人工智能是否能带来足够回报的担忧，他们正在寻找避风港。
Hello there. The global selloff in the AI trade is sending investors piling into government bonds. They’re searching for safe havens as rising interest rates stoke concern about whether the billions poured into artificial intelligence will deliver sufficient returns.
美国国债收益率曲线全线上涨，法国债券也获得提振，但幅度不及其他政府债券。这并不意外：人工智能或许面临融资问题，但巴黎同样如此。我本周在《Econ World》播客中聚焦了法国的财政断层，具体来说，是围绕资源的代际之争。
US Treasuries rose across the curve and even French bonds got a boost, though not as much as other government paper. No surprises there: AI may have its financing problems but so does Paris. I homed in on France’s fiscal fault lines in this week’s Econ World podcast, specifically the generational battle over resources.
法国学生因学校破旧、教室拥挤而举行的抗议，是对2023年法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙试图将退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁所引发的示威活动的自然延续。在这两种情况下，抗议者都认为自己正在与政府为资源而战，但实际上，他们是在彼此之间争夺资源如何分配。有趣的是，我的同事利·托马斯（Leigh Thomas），他负责报道法国经济，表示学生并不这么看。
The protests by French students over dilapidated schools and overcrowded classrooms are a natural sequel to the demonstrations that roiled France back in 2023 when President Emmanuel Macron tried to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. In each case, the protesters see themselves in a fight with the government over resources, but in reality they are in a battle with each other over how those resources are divided up. Interestingly, my colleague Leigh Thomas, who covers the French economy, says the students don’t see it that way.
人工智能抛售对债券的提振，或许对寻求为预算融资的政府来说是一大解脱，但正如专栏作家迈克·多兰（Mike Dolan）所指出的，他们应当谨慎许愿。国际货币基金组织正在警示，人工智能投资热潮可能结束所带来的重大增长和金融稳定风险。
You can The bump to bonds from the AI rout could be a big relief for governments looking to finance their budgets, but as columnist Mike Dolan points out, they should be careful what they wish for. The International Monetary Fund is flagging significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom.
从地理上看，韩国是抛售的震中，因为其市场高度集中于芯片股票，并受到杠杆零售投注的放大。周四，当地股市下跌近8%。但就个股而言，CoreWeave正处于风暴中心。
Geographically speaking, South Korea is the epicentre of the selloff because its market is so heavily concentrated on chip stocks, amplified by leveraged retail bets. Stocks there closed down nearly 8% on Thursday. But looking at individual names, CoreWeave is at the eye of the storm.
CoreWeave属于“新云服务商”范畴，这类企业专门向微软、谷歌等科技公司提供计算能力及其他相关服务。这些计算服务供应商为谋求发展大量举债，如今投资者正着手将那些现金流充裕的AI企业与那些依赖债务来扩张的企业区分开来。
CoreWeave is a neocloud, a term used to describe companies that rent out computing power and other services to tech companies like Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google. These computing suppliers have borrowed big to finance their growth and investors are now separating off AI companies that have solid cash balances from those that need debt to build.
目前CoreWeave的债务总额接近500亿美元。周三当天，其股权价值缩水了五分之一。根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，该公司的债券目前以八折的价格交易；为其债券违约风险投保的成本也已飙升至1000个基点以上，这意味着如今要为价值100美元的债券投保，需支付超过10美元的费用。
CoreWeave owes nearly $50 billion and saw one-fifth of its equity value vaporised on Wednesday. Its debt is trading at a 20% discount and the cost of insuring the company against default has blown out past 1,000 bps, according to LSEG data, meaning it now costs over $10 to insure $100 worth of bonds.
为安抚员工情绪，该公司首席执行官在内部信中指出，第二季度公司已获得的订单总额超过1000亿美元，他还表示市场有时会出现“误解与非理性行为”。
In a note to reassure staff, the company's CEO pointed out that it had a revenue backlog of over $100 billion in the second quarter and said markets can sometimes "misunderstand and act irrationally".
特朗普总统与俄罗斯总统普京达成了一项出人意料的协议：俄罗斯将向美国及全球市场投放约225万桶柴油。不过这一数量仅相当于美国交通运输行业一天的消耗量。
President Trump agreed a surprise deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to release around 2.25 million barrels of Russian diesel onto US and global markets. But that amount is less than a day's supply for the US transport sector alone.
“从法国的民意调查来看，民众普遍意识到现有的养老体系在财务层面既不稳定也不可持续，但希望提高退休年龄的人并未占多数。因此，这种情况迟早会出现变化。”目前法国各地的学生正在抗议学校条件恶劣的问题。不过正如利·托马斯在本周的《经济世界》节目中所提到的，他们的不满情绪或许有着更深层次的根源。点击此处观看节目。
"When you look at the opinion polls in France, there's a recognition that the public retirement system is not financially sound and sustainable, but there is not a majority of people that want to increase the retirement age. So, something's got to give at some point." Students are protesting all over France about poor conditions in schools. But as Leigh Thomas tells me on this week's Econ World, their frustrations may go much deeper. Watch it here.