石油实际上每桶价格为125美元或更高。这就是一桶石油的真实成本，因为购买实物商品与交易员屏幕上的数字是完全不同的故事。
Oil, in reality, is $125 per barrel or higher. That's the real cost of a barrel of oil because buying the physical commodity is a very different story from a number on traders' screens.
石油期货仅此而已：它们是纸质合约，标示今天、明天、下个月或更远期的价格。如果你想购买实物商品，情况可能完全不同——价格也可能不同。
Oil futures are just that: paper contracts indicating a price today, tomorrow, next month or further out. If you want to buy the physical commodity, it may be a totally different story — and price.
正如我所报道的，石油交付价格已飙升。上周，一艘VLCC（即非航运行业术语中的“超级油轮”）从美国墨西哥湾沿岸租用前往中国，租金为7600万美元。另一艘超大型原油运输船从美国租用前往韩国，租金为7700万美元。这比不到一年前同航线的租金高出10倍。
As I've reported, prices for oil delivery have skyrocketed. Last week, a VLCC (aka a "supertanker" in non-shipper parlance) was chartered from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China for $76 million. Another very large crude carrier went for $77 million from the U.S. to South Korea. That's 10 times more than the price of the same trip less than one year ago.
假设这些船舶可装载约200万桶石油，那么这一租金意味着船上每桶石油的成本比石油本身的价格高出约38美元。
Assuming these ships hold about 2 million barrels of oil, that charter price means each barrel on the ship costs about $38 over the price of the oil itself.
我当然不是说不要关注石油期货价格，但你需要知道，CNBC屏幕或CNBC.com上的价格并不总是实际支付的全部价格。如今，任何需要通过海运、铁路或公路运输石油的公司，都需要为石油本身的价格支付一笔可观的溢价。因此，尽管通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量正接近战前水平，但成本却并非如此。而且目前没有迹象表明成本会下降——只会继续上升。
I'm certainly not saying to avoid looking at oil futures prices, but you need to know that the price on the CNBC screen or CNBC.com isn't always the full price being paid. These days, any company that needs oil shipped by sea, rail or truck will pay a hefty premium over the price of the oil itself. So, while the volume of oil moving through Hormuz is closing in on pre-war levels, costs are not. And there's no sign that they're going anywhere but up.
你知道还有什么在上升吗？船东的股票。看看他们本月和今年的走势。
You know what else is up? The stocks of the shipowners. Look at their moves this month and this year.
言归正传，我想表达对沙特阿拉伯利雅得机场遭遇袭击的哀悼。这一针对平民的懦弱袭击——其中一些人是宗教朝圣者——导致至少14人死亡，300多人受伤。
On a more serious note, I want to express my condolences for the awful attacks on the airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The cowardly strike on civilians—some of whom were religious pilgrims—took the lives of at least 14 people and injured more than 300.
机场在全球旅客和能源行业专业人士飞往利雅得参加世界石油理事会会议期间至少遭到三次袭击。我原定于周六抵达，但因袭击行程被取消。世界石油理事会会议照常进行 — — 以下是周二举行的一个小组讨论 — — 我期待着尽快再次见到我的全球能源界朋友们。
The airport was attacked at least three times as travelers and energy industry professionals from around the world were flying into Riyadh for the World Petroleum Council conference. I was scheduled to fly in on Saturday, but the trip was canceled because of the strikes. The WPC went on as planned — here's one panel that took place Tuesday — and I look forward to seeing all my global energy friends again soon.
感谢阅读 — — 以及观看。在这些疯狂且常常令人害怕的时刻，请保持安全。
Thanks for reading—and watching. Be safe in these crazy and often scary times.
布赖恩 目前值得关注的超级电容油气股是壳牌（SHEL）。壳牌并非昔日的影子。它正重新成为能源投资者所期待的样子：全球能源领域的主要参与者，专注于其擅长的领域。股东们正获得回报。
Brian The supercap oil and gas stock to watch right now is Shell (SHEL). Shell is not a shell of its former self. It's back to being what energy investors wanted: a major player in global energy, focused on what it does best. Shareholders are being rewarded.
壳牌本周股价创历史新高。尽管分析师仍持看涨态度，但股价正接近其目标价。
Shell hit a new high this week. While analysts remain bullish, the stock is getting close to its target price.
壳牌可能因其庞大的液化天然气业务而被低估。皇家银行资本市场分析师比拉杰·博尔克塔里亚写道：“在卡塔尔产量未能持续恢复且欧洲储存水平低于季节性低点进入冬季的情况下，欧洲天然气价格在2026年第三季度继续呈上升趋势。随着亨利枢纽（HH）价格在整个夏季基本持平，出口利润率已升至我们估计的近2022年以来的最高水平 — — 约为2026年第二季度的两倍（约13美元/百万英热单位 vs. 7美元/百万英热单位）。”
Shell may be underappreciated for its huge liquefied natural gas business. RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes: "Without a sustained resumption in Qatari volumes and with European storage levels below seasonal lows heading into winter, European gas prices continued on an upward trajectory in 3Q26. With HH broadly unchanged throughout the summer, export margins have increased to the widest levels seen since 2022, on our estimates nearly double the level in 2Q26 (~$13/mmbtu vs. $7/mmbtu)."
博尔克塔里亚预计，壳牌及其他在美国液化天然气领域持有大规模头寸的公司 — — 如道达尔能源（TTE）和英国石油（BP） — — 将因向欧洲出口的利润率扩大而受益。
Borkhataria expects Shell and other companies with huge U.S. LNG positions — TotalEnergies (TTE) and BP (BP) — to benefit from wider margins on exports to Europe.
说到皇家银行资本市场和能源，该机构将康菲菲利普斯列为其全球顶级30只股票构想之一。该公司由分析师斯科特·汉诺德覆盖，他认为康菲菲利普斯具备“以回报为导向的价值主张、强劲的资产负债表以及同业领先的分红”。他喜欢其“全球且多元化”的资产基础以及管理层清晰的“投资主张”。汉诺德对康菲菲利普斯的目标价为152美元，这意味着超过20%的上涨空间。
Speaking of RBC and energy, the firm lists ConocoPhillips as one of its top 30 global stock ideas. The company is covered by analyst Scott Hanold, who believes it has a "returns-focused value proposition, a strong balance sheet, and peer-leading distributions." He loves its "global and diverse" asset base and management's clear "investment propositions." Hanold has a $152 target on COP. That's more than 20% upside.
在石油和天然气领域，炼油商和大型能源股票正在为投资者创造现金，摩根士丹利认为更多收益即将到来。
In oil and gas, refiners and big energy stocks are generating cash for investors, and Morgan Stanley is optimistic more is coming.
该公司表示，柴油短缺现在正蔓延至汽油，这可能标志着炼油商“黄金时代”的另一个阶段。摩根士丹利一直在上调包括埃克森美孚（XOM）、瓦莱罗（VLO）、菲利普斯66（PSX）和PBF（PBF）在内的公司的盈利预期。在发电领域，有两个重要观点值得快速突出。
The firm says the diesel shortage is now spilling over into gasoline, potentially marking another leg of the "golden age" for refiners. Morgan Stanley has been revising its earnings estimates higher for companies including ExxonMobil (XOM), Valero (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX) and PBF (PBF). Two big calls to quickly highlight in power production.
首先，Truist表示，你必须买入第一太阳能（FSLR）。该分析师将其评级上调至买入，目标价为270美元。关税应能帮助总部位于凤凰城的公司，使其在至少未来四年内获得定价权。第232条关税——这里太复杂，无法详细说明——应能帮助第一太阳能提高太阳能组件价格并提升盈利。我们持此观点，早在7月份就曾撰文讨论过该公司及其股票。
First, Truist says you have to buy First Solar (FSLR). The analyst upgrades it to Buy with a $270 target. Tariffs should help the Phoenix-based company, giving it pricing power for at least four more years. The Section 232 tariffs—which are too complicated to detail here—should help First Solar raise solar module prices and boost earnings. We agree, having written about the company and stock back in July.
另一个是Power Insider雷达上的呼声：TD Cowen正在对特拉瓦尔夫（WULF）启动覆盖，给出买入评级和21美元目标价。这表明该股票有约50%的上涨空间，但实际这是华尔街较低的目标价之一。特拉瓦尔夫及其他AI能源公司在经历数月大幅上涨后，股价遭遇重挫，但Cowen分析师迈克尔·埃利亚斯表示，估值如今已具吸引力，且2027年下半年在肯塔基州某地点可能的租赁协议可能成为催化剂。
Another call on the Power Insider radar: TD Cowen is starting coverage of TeraWulf (WULF) with a Buy rating and a $21 target. That indicates about 50% upside for the stock, but it's actually one of the Street's lower price targets. TeraWulf and other AI power companies have seen their stocks hit hard following months of big gains, but Cowen analyst Michael Elias says the valuation is now attractive and a likely lease in the second half of 2027 at a Kentucky location could be a catalyst.
在沙特阿拉伯遭遇恐怖袭击之后，我们采访了瑞银资本市场的海莉玛·克罗夫特，谈及袭击事件、能源及其他话题。
In the wake of the terror attacks on Saudi Arabia, we spoke with RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft about the attacks, energy and more.
全球能源界正密切关注欧洲的天然气储存水平。关键问题是，该大陆是否拥有足够的天然气以安全度过冬季。Power Insider在上一期中曾就此话题进行过报道。
The entire energy world is watching Europe's natural gas storage levels. The question is whether the continent will have enough gas to make it safely through the winter. Power Insider wrote about the topic in the last issue.
摩根大通强调预期天气模式的事实应该能告诉你，温度在天然气储存方面有多重要。早期预报显示，10月和11月的气温将接近或略高于10年平均水平。红线代表10年平均水平。
The fact that JPMorgan highlights expected weather patterns should tell you how much temperature matters when it comes to gas storage. The early forecast calls for October and November to be average or slightly warmer than the 10-year average. The red line represents the 10-year average.
过去几年，欧洲在很大程度上“幸免于难”，得益于温和的气温。今年天然气储存水平低于往年，因此温度将在决定各国能够熬过冬季方面发挥重要作用——嗯，你懂的。虽然这听起来有些随机，但却很有趣。
Europe has been largely "saved" by mild temperatures over the past few years. Natural gas storage levels are lower this year than in years past, so the thermometer will matter a lot when it comes to how well countries can, ahem, the winter.
伊朗加大攻击力度，霍尔木兹海峡发生油轮沉没事件。伊朗表示，它正“在计算每一刻”，直至能够袭击美国军舰。国际能源署表示，由于伊朗战争扰乱供应，柴油供应紧张状况将持续至2027年及以后。想了解更多能源相关内容，包括CNBC和Power Insider的采访及视频，请继续关注。
Random, but interesting. Container ship sinks in Strait of Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks Iran says it's 'counting the moments' until it can strike U.S. warships Diesel squeeze set to last well into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA says Catch up with more on energy including interviews and video content from CNBC and Power Insider.