新加坡：印度执政党印度人民党（BJP）今年正面临第二波由青年领导的抗议浪潮。此前一波抗议始于6月，因考试丑闻爆发，并在7月达到高潮，导致教育部长辞职。但如今，抗议的筹码更高了——抗议者正试图赶下印度的选举委员会主席。正如其名所暗示的那样，蟑螂人民党（CJP）拒绝被驱赶走。
SINGAPORE: India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a second wave of youth-led protests this year. An earlier wave began in June over examination scandals and culminated in the resignation of the education minister in July. But now, the stakes are higher – protestors are seeking to oust India’s election chief. As befits its name, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) refuses to be shooed away.
该运动的创始人阿比吉特·迪普克（Abhijeet Dipke）在周六（10月10日）抵达机场时被警方拘留，此前他计划在周末发起一场抗议活动，次日获释。数万名警察和准军事人员在首都被动员，有报道称他们将抗议者从街上拖走，装进面包车和巴士里。这表明印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪政府将其视为严重威胁。
The movement’s founder Abhijeet Dipke was detained by police upon arrival at the airport on Saturday (Oct 10), ahead of a planned protest over the weekend, and released a day later. Tens of thousands of police and paramilitary personnel were mobilised in the capital, with reports that they dragged protesters off the streets and carted them away in vans and buses. It showed how seriously Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government perceives them as a threat.
老年精英统治陷入困境 莫迪先生（76岁）精心培育的气质已被击破；由Z世代领导的抗议的一个关键元素是他们的无礼。
THE GERONTOCRACY IS AT A LOSS The cultivated aura of Mr Modi, 76, has been punctured; a key element of the Gen Z-led protests is their irreverence.
这一在Instagram和YouTube上成长的一代人公开嘲笑莫迪先生及其印度人民党。另一个目标是印度的主流媒体，Z世代认为这些媒体只是在唱政府的调子。
The Instagram- and YouTube-raised generation has been openly mocking Mr Modi and his BJP. Another target is India’s mainstream media, which Gen Z sees as toeing the government line.
印度根深蒂固的父权制和老年精英统治体制根本不知道如何应对这一新一代、充满挫败感且无礼的青年——他们似乎在每一次镇压中只会变得更强。
India’s fundamentally patriarchal, gerontocratic establishment just does not know how to deal with this new and frustrated generation of irreverent youth – who appear to only gather strength from every crackdown.
在6月和7月的抗议中，警方发射催泪瓦斯并暴力镇压抗议活动。这一次，他们试图在抗议甚至开始之前就予以阻止——通过在抗议者前往抗议地点Jantar Mantar的途中拘留CJP领导人和抗议者来实现。未被吓倒的抗议者在获释后直接返回街头。
In the June and July protests, police fired tear gas and violently contained the protests. This time, they tried to prevent the protests before they even began by detaining CJP leaders and protesters on their way to the protest site Jantar Mantar. Undaunted protesters went straight back into the streets after their release.
周一，当局将詹塔尔曼塔尔关闭为授权的抗议场地。两名CJP领导人仍进入了这段道路——该道路曾是印度三十年来最突出的抗议场地之一——随后被判处五天监禁。德里记者联盟（DUJ）也因据称对记者的拘留、袭击和阻碍行为向最高法院提交了诉状。尼哈·博拉（Neha Bora）是一名29岁的博士生，就读于德里传统上偏向左翼的贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁大学（因此受到右翼印度人民党的不喜爱），同时也是全印度学生联盟的全国主席，她已成为社交媒体上的现象级人物。
On Monday, authorities shut Jantar Mantar as an authorised protest site. Two CJP leaders entered the stretch of road that had been one of India’s most prominent protest sites for three decades anyway, and were subsequently sent to jail for five days The Delhi Union of Journalists (DUJ) also filed a writ petition before the Supreme Court over alleged detention, assault, and obstruction of journalists Neha Bora, a 29-year-old doctorate student at Delhi’s traditionally leftist (and therefore frowned on by the right-wing BJP) Jawaharlal Nehru University and the national president of the All India Students' Association has become a social media phenomenon.
博拉多次被拘留。她曾在首都街头躲避警察奔跑，随后在周一的抗议活动第三天出现在国大党领袖拉胡尔·甘地身旁。
Bora has been detained multiple times. She has run through the streets of the capital dodging police, later to appear alongside Congress leader Rahul Gandhi at the third day of the protests on Monday.
更大的诉求 这场运动本身源于五月的一起事件，当时印度首席大法官苏里亚·坎特将转向社交媒体或“知情权”活动的失业青年—— essentially 通过诉讼迫使政府提供信息——比作“蟑螂”。他后来表示自己被误引用了。
LARGER GRIEVANCES The movement itself was born out of a slight in May, when India’s Chief Justice Surya Kant likened unemployed youth who turn to social media or “right to information” activism – moving courts essentially to force information from the government – to “cockroaches”. He later said he had been misquoted.
蟑螂人民党（Janta意为人民）在几周内就在Instagram上获得了数百万粉丝。Z世代通过将这一标签转化为动力作出回应：起初源于对教育的不满，逐渐演变为对更深层次诉求的关注。
The Cockroach Janta Party (janta means people) within weeks got millions of followers on Instagram. Gen Z responded by turning the label into momentum: What started as frustration over education became about larger grievances.
如果存在所谓的印度梦想，尽管经济增长强劲，但对许多年轻人而言，这一梦想仍然难以捉摸。印度年增长率超过7%，是世界增长最快的主要经济体之一，但分析人士一直警告称存在无就业增长的风险。
If there was an Indian dream, despite robust economic growth it has been elusive for many young people. At over 7 per cent growth, India is among the fastest-growing major economies of the world, but analysts have been warning of jobless growth.
印度拥有世界上最多的青年人口，达到3.71亿。近65%的人口处于劳动年龄。但工作岗位不足。
India has the largest youth population in the world, with 371 million young people. Nearly 65 per cent of the population is of working age. But there are not enough jobs.
根据国际劳工组织（ILO）的数据，2023年，15至29岁大学毕业生的失业率为28.4%。未来十年，每年将有约700万至800万青年加入劳动力队伍。印度面临浪费其人口红利的风险。
According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), the unemployment rate of college graduates aged 15 to 29 was 28.4 per cent in 2023. About 7 to 8 million youth will be added to the labour force annually in the next decade. India risks wasting its demographic dividend.
保持势头 青年运动现在将注意力转向选举以及他们称之为击中民主核心的选民登记核查行动。
SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM The youth movement has now turned its attention to elections and an electorate verification exercise they say strikes at the heart of a functioning democracy.
首席大法官呼吁罢免选举委员会主席吉亚内什·库马尔，并完全叫停选举委员会开展的特别强化修订（SIR）行动——该行动旨在核查和修订选民名单。
The CJP is calling for the ouster of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and a complete halt to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise undertaken by the Election Commission to verify and revise electoral rolls.
超过1.3亿个姓名被从选民名单中删除，有指控称其中许多是错误删除，导致符合条件的选民被剥夺选举权。SIR行动可能影响了西孟加拉邦的选举结果——这是一个长期被印度人民党垂涎、并于今年5月终于被其夺取的邦。
Over 130 million names have been struck off the roll, with allegations that many were wrongful deletions that disenfranchised eligible voters. The SIR exercise may have affected the outcome of elections in West Bengal, a state long coveted by and finally won by the BJP in May.
资深记者、电影制片人和出版商帕兰乔伊·古哈·塔克尔塔告诉我：“莫迪政府如今比以往任何时候都更弱。”
The Narendra Modi government is weaker than it has ever been, senior journalist, film maker and publisher Paranjoy Guha Thakurta told me.
他说：“（这场运动）独特之处在于它打破了社会壁垒——性别、种姓、宗教和阶级。其规模和自发性让政府措手不足，而在接受了青年和学生要求教育部长辞职的诉求后，政府担心如果选举委员会主席被撤职，其地位将进一步削弱，并面临更大压力，被迫彻底废除SIR。”这将是一个重大逆转。“SIR是（印度人民党）最后一次尝试，试图将一个喧闹的民主转变为一个温顺、被阉割的选民群体——它可以随时动员这一群体来为其民主形象背书。”历史学家、政治与社会论客穆库尔·凯萨万本周对《电线》说道。
“What is unique about (the movement) is that it has broken social barriers – gender, caste, religion and class. The scale and spontaneity has taken the government by surprise, and having accepted the demand of the youth and the students for the resignation of the education minister, it fears that if the chief election commissioner is removed it will become weaker and vulnerable to more pressure to completely scrap the SIR.”This would be a significant reversal. “SIR is its (the BJP’s) final attempt to convert a rambunctious democracy into a tame, gelded electorate which it can call upon at will to legitimise its democratic credentials," historian and political and social essayist Mukul Kesavan told The Wire this week.
面对一个不动摇的国家可能会导致僵局，但日益壮大的青年运动不太可能停止尝试。前方存在风险，包括暴力和领导层的分裂，但毫无疑问，自总理莫迪于2014年首次上台以来，这是对莫迪政府可信度和稳定性最严重的威胁。
Taking on an immovable state may lead to a stalemate, but the broadening youth movement is unlikely to stop trying. There are risks ahead, including violence, and disunity in the leadership, but there is no doubt that this is the most serious threat to the credibility and stability of the Modi government since the prime minister first took power in 2014.
在南亚各地，青年正在要求更多，并日益挑战根深蒂固、守旧且在许多情况下腐败的政治精英。这其中蕴含的教训可能超越印度——世界上最大的民主国家——产生共鸣，也可能影响其他地区腐败且安于现状的老年人统治体制。
Across South Asia, youth are demanding more and increasingly challenging entrenched, orthodox and in many cases corrupt political elites. There are lessons in this that could resonate beyond India – the world’s largest democracy – to corrupt and complacent gerontocracies elsewhere.
尼尔马尔·戈什（Nirmal Ghosh）是一名前外国记者，现居新加坡，是一名作者和独立撰稿人。他为《联合早报》（CNA）撰写每月专栏，每月第三个星期五发表。
Nirmal Ghosh, a former foreign correspondent, is an author and independent writer based in Singapore. He writes a monthly column for CNA, published every third Friday.