CNN的伊莎·索雷斯在离选举日不到三周的时间里与罗恩·布朗斯坦进行了座谈。
CNN's Isa Soares sits down with Ron Brownstein, less than three weeks out from election day.
得克萨斯州完美诠释了本次大选最后几周的态势，因为无论是在众议院还是参议院，美国的选战绝大部分、几乎完全都在2024年投票给特朗普的地方展开。我是说，只有八名众议院共和党人所在的选区投票给了哈里斯。苏珊·柯林斯是唯一一位所在州投票给哈里斯的共和党参议员。这意味着民主党必须在共和党人可能多于民主党人、且他们最近很少获胜的地方取胜。
WHAT PERFORMANCE. >> TEXAS IS A PERFECT ENCAPSULATION OF THE FINAL WEEKS OF THIS ELECTION BECAUSE BOTH IN THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE IN THE US, THE ELECTION IS BEING FOUGHT OUT OVERWHELMINGLY, ALMOST ENTIRELY IN PLACES THAT VOTED FOR TRUMP IN 2024. I MEAN, THERE ARE ONLY EIGHT HOUSE REPUBLICANS IN DISTRICT THAT VOTED FOR HARRIS. SUSAN COLLINS IS THE ONLY REPUBLICAN SENATOR LEFT IN A STATE THAT VOTED FOR HARRIS. SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE TO WIN IN PLACES WHERE THERE ARE PROBABLY MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS AND PLACES WHERE THEY HAVE NOT WON VERY OFTEN LATELY.
我是说，他们自1988年以来就没在得州选出过参议员。我认为这确实影响了塔拉里科昨晚的策略。我是说，他非常清楚地试图与其基本盘之外的选民对话，因为你知道，你可以在民主党人中大幅领跑、获得极高投票率、在无党派选民中决定性获胜，但在得州依然可能落败。除非你能争取一小部分普通倾向共和党的选民，让他们要么投你的票，要么干脆跳过参议院选举不投票。
I MEAN, THEY HAVEN'T ELECTED A SENATOR FROM TEXAS SINCE 1988. AND I THINK THAT REALLY INFORMED TALARICO APPROACH LAST NIGHT. I MEAN, HE WAS VERY CLEARLY TRYING TO TALK TO VOTERS BEYOND HIS COALITION BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN RUN UP THE SCORE AMONG DEMOCRATS, GET VERY HIGH TURNOUT, WIN INDEPENDENTS DECISIVELY AND STILL FALL SHORT IN TEXAS. UNLESS YOU CAN PEEL OFF A SMALL SLICE OF ORDINARY REPUBLICAN LEANING VOTERS, EITHER TO VOTE FOR YOU OR TO SKIP THE SENATE RACE AND NOT VOTE AT ALL. >> AND EVEN WHEN WE LOOKED PRIOR TO TO THE TOWN HALL, WE LOOKED AT THE POLLING. IT'S VERY, VERY TIGHT, EVEN WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR, BOTH THE POLLS WE LOOKED AT AND CLEARLY, LIKE YOU SAID, RON, THE FOCUS IS ON THOSE SKEPTICAL REPUBLICANS OR THOSE INDEPENDENTS WHERE WHERE DID YOU GO TO GET THAT?
甚至在市政厅会议之前，我们看民调时，竞争非常、非常激烈，甚至都在误差范围内，无论是我们看的那些民调，显然正如你所说，罗恩，焦点都在那些持怀疑态度的共和党人或无党派人士身上——你去哪里争取他们？你关注哪些领域有可能把他们拉过来？
WHAT AREAS DO YOU FOCUS ON THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING THEM IN? >> HE CLEARLY TRIED TO MODERATE ON CULTURAL ISSUES.
他在文化议题上明显试图向中间靠拢。是的。还有，石油天然气议题在该州非常重要。甚至包括他对个人宗教信仰的阐述。是的。你知道，现在我认为，任何因他说“上帝是非二元性别”而感到冒犯、以至于说“我要去投那个被自己党派弹劾、并公开被指控通奸多次的总检察长一票”的选民，对塔拉里科来说都是无法争取的。
YEAH. AND, UH, YOU KNOW, OIL AND GAS ISSUES, VERY IMPORTANT IN THE STATE. EVEN HIS DISCUSSION OF HIS PERSONAL RELIGION. YEAH. YOU KNOW, UH, NOW I THINK ANYBODY WHO IS OFFENDED ENOUGH BY HIM SAYING GOD IS NON-BINARY TO SAY, I'M GOING TO VOTE FOR THE, YOU KNOW, ATTORNEY GENERAL WHO'S BEEN IMPEACHED BY HIS OWN PARTY AND IS OPENLY BEEN ACCUSED OF MULTIPLE ADULTERIES THAT VOTER IS NOT REACHABLE FOR FOR TALARICO.
但他试图争取的是那近一半在共和党初选中投票给约翰·科宁而非肯·帕克斯顿的共和党初选选民。你知道，这也是故事的很大一部分。为什么2026年不同于2018年？很大一部分原因在于，不仅是特朗普支持率下滑的深度，更是其广度。是的。我们正在看到核心共和党选民群体中的流失，即非大学学历白人、农村选民、所谓的非“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人。
BUT WHAT HE'S TRYING TO REACH ARE THE ALMOST HALF OF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTORATE VOTED FOR JOHN CORNYN, NOT KEN PAXTON. AND, YOU KNOW, PART OF THE A BIG PART OF THE STORY. WHY IS 26 DIFFERENT THAN 2018? A BIG PART OF THE STORY IS THAT IT IS NOT ONLY THE DEPTH OF TRUMP'S DECLINE, IT'S THE BREADTH. YEAH. AND WE ARE SEEING EROSION AMONG CORE REPUBLICAN CONSTITUENCIES, NON-COLLEGE WHITES, UH, RURAL VOTERS, NON WHAT THEY CALL NON MAGA REPUBLICANS.
共和党人将会发现他们与党派的共同点多于与特朗普的共同点。我们正在以2018年未曾出现的方式看到这些群体中的流失。这才是真正让民主党得以扩大竞争版图的原因。
REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO FIND MORE WITH THE PARTY THAN WITH TRUMP. WE ARE SEEING EROSION WITH THOSE GROUPS IN A WAY THAT WAS NOT TRUE IN 2018. AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT IS ALLOWING DEMOCRATS TO BROADEN THE MAP. >> WE'RE LOOKING AT THE POLLS AND WE ARE SEEING, OKAY, TRUMP'S POLLING NUMBERS ARE LOW 33%.
我们正在关注民调，看到特朗普的民调数字很低，33%。我认为福克斯新闻的民调是36%，大概那样。就是今天。我们知道经济是最重要的议题之一。然而，我们在这场总统多州竞选冲刺中听到的东西却截然不同。
I THINK FOX POLL WAS AT 36%, SOMETHING LIKE THAT. TODAY. UH, WE KNOW ECONOMY IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT YET. WE'RE HEARING SOMETHING SO DIFFERENT ON THIS MULTI-STATE CAMPAIGN BLITZ FROM THE PRESIDENT. >> VOTE FOR MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKETS, BIGGER PAYCHECKS FOR YOUR FAMILIES, LOWER TAXES, LESS CRIME, A BOOMING ARIZONA ECONOMY LIKE YOU HAVE RIGHT NOW, BUT MORE SO.
投票让你口袋里有更多钱，让你家庭拿到更大薪水，降低税收，减少犯罪，拥有像现在这样繁荣的亚利桑那州经济，甚至更繁荣。以及不给非法移民大赦。你们只需投票给共和党，就会拥有这一切甚至更多。
AND NO AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL ALIENS. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS VOTE REPUBLICAN, AND YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE ALL OF THAT AND MORE. >> IT SEEMS WHAT HE'S SAYING ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL DOES NOT MATCH WHAT PEOPLE ARE FEELING.
他在竞选途中所说的似乎与民众的感受不符。那么这种策略是为什么？他们为什么认为这策略会奏效？
SO WHY IS THIS STRATEGY? WHY ARE THEY THINKING THIS STRATEGY WILL WORK? >> FIRST OF ALL, MANY PRESIDENTS FALL INTO THIS TRAP.
首先，许多总统都会陷入这个陷阱。就像，你知道，我形容为理查德·普赖尔陷阱：你要相信我，还是相信你撒谎的眼睛？你知道，他不是第一个试图说服美国人经济比他们想的要好的总统。这真的很难做到。我是说，他们谈论低信息选民。我常说，选民至少是自己生活的专家，他们知道周末结束时口袋里还剩多少钱。
LIKE, YOU KNOW, IT'S SORT OF LIKE I DESCRIBE IT AS THE RICHARD PRYOR TRAP. WHO ARE YOU GOING TO BELIEVE, ME OR YOUR LYING EYES? YOU KNOW, PRESIDENTS, HE IS NOT THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO TRY TO CONVINCE AMERICANS THAT THE ECONOMY IS BETTER THAN THEY THINK. IT'S A REALLY HARD THING TO DO. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THEY TALK ABOUT LOW INFORMATION VOTERS. I OFTEN SAY VOTERS ARE EXPERT IN THEIR OWN LIVES, IF NOTHING ELSE, AND THEY KNOW HOW MUCH MONEY THEY HAVE IN THEIR POCKET AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
当他们没有足够的钱时，不仅很难让他们相信情况并非如此。这对他们来说甚至有点冒犯，因为这给人的感觉是你脱离了实际。现在，特朗普的巡回集会非常具有防御性，但并非妄想，因为如果回到起点来看，几乎所有竞争激烈的选战都发生在倾向共和党的地区，这意味着那里有一个共和党选民群体，理论上他可以帮助动员他们出来投票，其中许多人现在表示不打算投票，因为他们对结果感到失望。
AND WHEN THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH, IT'S NOT ONLY DIFFICULT TO CONVINCE THEM OTHERWISE. IT'S KIND OF OFFENSIVE TO THEM BECAUSE IT GIVES THE SENSE THAT YOU ARE OUT OF TOUCH. NOW, TRUMP'S TOUR IS VERY DEFENSIVE, BUT IT'S NOT DELUSIONAL IN THAT IF YOU GO BACK TO WHERE WE STARTED, ALMOST ALL THE COMPETITIVE RACES ARE IN REPUBLICAN LEANING PLACES, WHICH MEANS THERE IS A POOL OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS THERE THAT HE, IN THEORY, CAN HELP BRING OUT, MANY OF WHICH ARE NOW SAYING THEY DO NOT INTEND TO VOTE BECAUSE THEIR DISAPPOINTING RESULTS, THE COUNTERPOINT, THOUGH, IS THAT HE IS NOW.
然而，反面的情况是，他现在的支持率甚至在铁板一块的红州俄亥俄州和爱荷华州都是负面的。特朗普在得克萨斯州的净支持率也是负面的，这意味着，是的，特朗普可能通过这场集会多带出一名共和党选民。但如果你站在他身边，你可能会赶走一名甚至一名半独立选民。所以这对共和党人来说是个真正艰难的抉择。
HIS APPROVAL IS NOW NEGATIVE, EVEN IN THE STAUNCHLY RED OHIO. IOWA. BUT TRUMP HAS A NET NEGATIVE APPROVAL RATING IN TEXAS, WHICH MEANS THAT, YES, TRUMP MAY BRING OUT ONE MORE REPUBLICAN VOTER THROUGH THIS RALLY. BUT IF YOU'RE STANDING NEXT TO HIM, YOU MAY DRIVE AWAY ONE MORE OR MAYBE ONE AND A HALF MORE INDEPENDENT VOTERS. SO IT'S A REAL TOUGH CHOICE FOR THIS.
总的来说，大多数共和党人认为，跟着他干、努力提高投票率对自己更有利。但历史经验是，当总统在你的州、在你的选区支持率倒挂时，在现代政治中要想获胜已不容易。
REPUBLICANS, FOR REPUBLICANS, ON BALANCE, MOST OF THEM ARE SAYING, I'M BETTER OFF STICKING WITH HIM AND TRYING TO GET THE TURNOUT. BUT THE HISTORY IS THAT WHEN THE PRESIDENT IS UNDERWATER IN YOUR STATE, IN YOUR DISTRICT, IT'S NOT EASY TO WIN ANYMORE.
通常情况下，事情不妙时你会改变策略。正如我们看到的这场竞造势攻势，并没有出现策略转变。始终都是关于“你们拥有强劲的经济”。你知道，我带来了低物价。我将制止战争。嗯，这些似乎都无法引起大多数选民的共鸣。
IN MODERN POLITICS. >> NORMALLY, WHEN THINGS AREN'T GOING RIGHT, YOU CHANGE THE STRATEGY. AND, YOU KNOW, AS WE SEE THIS CAMPAIGN BLITZ, WE HAVEN'T SEEN A SHIFT. IT'S ALWAYS ABOUT YOUR GREAT ECONOMY. YOU KNOW, I'VE LED IT LOW PRICES. I'M GOING TO STOP THE WAR. UM AND THAT AND THAT DOESN'T SEEM TO RESONATE WITH MOST VOTERS. >> NO.
不。因为我是说，你基本上是在告诉他们不要相信他们眼前的现实，就像理查德·普赖尔那个段子里说的。你不打算……相信……你要相信谁，而、而、但这揭示了一个问题，你知道，如果你看看历任总统，当经济不好时，总统总是首当其冲，如果经济不好，人们会怪罪总统。但现在这种情况发生的程度却不同寻常。
BECAUSE I MEAN YOU'RE BASICALLY TELLING THEM NOT TO BELIEVE THEY'RE IN THE RICHARD PRYOR THING. >> ARE YOU GOING NOT TO. >> BELIEVE NOT WHO ARE YOU GOING TO AND AND, AND BUT IT IS REVEALING THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, AS YOU KNOW, IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT PRESIDENTS ALWAYS, ALWAYS SUFFER FROM PROXIMITY WHEN THE ECONOMY IS BAD, IF YOU'RE IF THE ECONOMY IS BAD, PEOPLE TAKE IT OUT ON THE PRESIDENT. THAT IS NOT WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW TO A DEGREE THAT IS UNUSUAL.
选民将他们的经济困难归因于特定行动。特朗普所采取的行动，尤其是推高油价的战争、关税以及削减联邦援助、联邦医疗援助，这种联系不仅比平时更紧密，而且国会中的共和党人在这些政策上都留下了他们的痕迹。美国的每场辩论。现在我们正处于辩论季。十月的前半段是众议院和参议院大多数辩论的时间。
VOTERS ATTRIBUTE THEIR ECONOMIC DISTRESS TO SPECIFIC ACTIONS. TRUMP HAS TAKEN, PARTICULARLY THE WAR DRIVING UP GAS PRICES AND THE TARIFFS AND THE CUTS IN FEDERAL HELP, FEDERAL ASSISTANCE FOR MEDICAL CARE, AND NOT ONLY IS THAT CONNECTION TIGHTER THAN USUAL, BUT THE REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS HAVE LEFT THEIR FINGERPRINTS ON ALL OF THESE POLICIES. EVERY DEBATE IN THE US. AND NOW WE'RE IN DEBATE SEASON. THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER IS WHEN YOU HAVE MOST OF THE HOUSE AND SENATE DEBATES.
每场辩论，民主党候选人都会转向共和党人说，你们曾X次投票支持关税。你们曾X次投票支持战争。这就是价格高企的原因，这就是风险。这正是使民主党有机会、有现实机会（虽然没有保证）成为可能的原因，因为即使是在一些你知道的、他们曾经……他们所在的众议院选区，特朗普曾以10分、12分、15分的优势获胜，而现在这些选区看起来变得接近了。最终。民主党人会赢下所有这些选区吗？可能不会。但这是一个衡量标准。你知道的，我想说的是，油价和。
EVERY DEBATE, THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE TURNS TO THE REPUBLICANS SAYS, YOU VOTED X TIMES FOR THE TARIFFS. YOU VOTED X TIMES FOR THE WAR. THIS IS WHY PRICES ARE HIGH AND THAT IS THE RISK. THAT IS WHAT IS ENABLING DEMOCRATS TO HAVE A SHOT, A REALISTIC SHOT, NO GUARANTEE, BECAUSE EVEN IN PLACES THAT HAVE BEEN, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE THEY'RE A HOUSE DISTRICTS THAT TRUMP WON BY TEN, 12 POINTS, 15 POINTS THAT NOW LOOK CLOSE. IN THE END. ARE DEMOCRATS GOING TO WIN ALL OF THEM? PROBABLY NOT. BUT IT IS A MEASURE. YOU KNOW WHAT, WHAT I LIKE TO SAY IS THAT GAS AND