中国经济正面临连续第二个季度增速低于国家领导人设定的2026年目标，政策制定者最近的刺激措施出台太晚，未能产生显著影响。
China’s economy is heading for a second straight quarter of growth below the 2026 target set by the nation’s leaders, with policymakers’ recent stimulus measures having come too late to make a notable impact.
据彭博社调查的经济学家中位数预测，周一公布的数据将显示，上季度国内生产总值同比增长4.4%。虽然这比截至6月的三个月的4.3%略有改善，但仍将再次低于北京官方设定的年度目标4.5%至5%。
Figures due Monday will show gross domestic product rose 4.4% last quarter from a year before, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg. While that would be a slight improvement on the 4.3% for the three months through June, it would again undershoot Beijing’s official annual target of 4.5% to 5%.
大部分增长依赖于出口，而出口正因全球人工智能投资热潮而激增。周一也将公布的零售销售月度数据预计将显示出现代史上最疲软的读数之一。尽管政府上个月推出了两年来最大规模的刺激措施，但许多观察人士怀疑这并未达到改变游戏规则的程度。
Much of the expansion relies on exports, which have been surging amid the global artificial intelligence investment boom. Monthly data on retail sales, also out Monday, are expected to show one of the weakest readings in modern history. While the government did intervene with the biggest stimulus in two years last month, many observers doubt it amounted to any sort of game-changer.
“如果没有朝着支持家庭收入和消费的决定性政策转变，中国很可能会陷入通胀低迷、增长平庸的长期时期，”法国兴业银行（Societe Generale SA）大中华区经济学家米歇尔·拉姆（Michelle Lam）在周二的一份报告中写道。
“Without a decisive policy shift toward supporting household incomes and consumption, China is likely to remain trapped in a prolonged period of low inflation and subpar growth,” Michelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale SA, wrote in a report Tuesday.
拉姆及大多数经济学家仍认为，北京已经做得足够多以确保实现全年目标。“更大的挑战在于2027年，届时GDP增长可能进一步放缓至低于4.5%，”她说。
Lam, along with most economists, still sees Beijing as having done enough to secure its full-year target. “The bigger challenge lies in 2027, where GDP growth may ease further to below 4.5%,” she said.
政府一直在加速公共债券的发行，以支持重大基础设施项目的建设。自9月下旬以来，官员们还推出了按揭补贴，扩大了对包括技术和基础设施在内的行业的央行资金支持，并为各省额外提供了820亿美元的支出能力。
The government has been speeding up the sales of public bonds to support the construction of major infrastructure projects. And since late September, officials have rolled out mortgage subsidies, expanded central bank funding support for sectors including technology and infrastructure and granted $82 billion in additional spending power for provinces.
彭博经济学表示……“随着政策支持力度加大，中国9月份的经济活动数据很可能开始显示经济正在企稳。增量刺激应主要通过公共投资实施，以帮助缓冲固定资产投资的更广泛下行。” — 昌舒和Eric Zhu。完整分析请点击此处。
What Bloomberg Economics Says...“China’s September activity data will likely start to show the economy stabilizing as policy support steps up. The incremental stimulus should come mainly through public investment, helping cushion the broader downturn in fixed-asset investment.” — Chang Shu and Eric Zhu. For full analysis, click here. The measures bear echoes of 2024, when GDP growth similarly slipped below target for two straight quarters before officials stepped in.
这些措施与2024年情况相似，当时GDP增长连续两个季度低于目标，随后官员介入干预。这一次，人工智能热潮正在提供帮助。
This time, the AI surge is offering a helping hand. A 36% jump in exports last month likely helped drive an acceleration in industrial output.
上个月出口增长36%，很可能推动工业产出加速。预计9月份工业产出同比增长5.4%，高于8月份的5.2%。衡量工厂活动的官方制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）自6月以来首次扩张。
Production is forecast to rise 5.4% in September from a year ago, picking up from the 5.2% pace in August. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which measures factory activity, expanded for the first time since June. Yet China’s reliance on trade to power growth poses a risk at a time of growing protectionism, with the European Union now joining the US in raising barriers to Chinese goods.
然而，中国对贸易的依赖以推动增长正面临风险，因为保护主义正在加剧，欧盟如今也加入美国行列，对中国商品设置壁垒。这也使中国暴露于人工智能投资热潮的起伏之中。
It also leaves the country exposed to the ebbs and flows of the investment frenzy around AI. China’s more frequent economic setbacks are also starting to call into question its longer-term prospects, with consumer demand being persistently weak and showing no sign of recovery.
中国经济屡遭挫折也开始引发对其长期前景的质疑，因为消费需求持续疲弱，且没有复苏迹象。本周早些时候，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在其最新全球展望中预测，中国经济将在2027年放缓至4%。
Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund projected China’s economy will slow to 4% in 2027, in its latest global outlook. That would be a significant downgrade from the 6%-plus annual growth rates in the years leading up to Covid, and even the 4.9% pace achieved since 2020.
这将是对疫情前年均6%以上增长率的显著下调，甚至低于2020年以来实现的4.9%增速。
The latest monthly figures are likely to show a continuation of an historic slump in fixed-asset investment, as the property depression continues and private businesses remain pessimistic.
最新月度数据很可能显示固定资产投资的历史性低迷将继续，因为房地产低迷持续且私营企业仍持悲观态度。该指标预计全年前九个月同比下降7.3%，与2025年相比 — — 大致持平于8月份录得的7.2%跌幅。
The gauge is expected to fall 7.3% for the first nine months of the year compared with 2025 — roughly on par with the 7.2% drop recorded in August. Still, as extreme weather events subsided and a low base of comparison from last year kicked in, there’s a chance that investment improved on a single-month basis.
然而，随着极端天气事件减弱，去年低基数效应开始显现，单月投资有望出现改善。根据高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的估计，9月份的同比降幅可能从8月的10.8%收窄至8%。
The year-on-year contraction likely narrowed to 8% in September from 10.8% in August, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s estimates. As for retail sales, they likely inched up 0.5% in September from a year ago, after a 0.4% gain in August, among the worst readings in modern history.
至于零售销售，9月份可能较去年同期微增0.5%，而8月份为0.4%的增长，这在现代史上属于较差的表现之一。这种微弱的改善可能反映出今年提前的公众假期带来的提振——今年中秋节在9月，而去年则在10月，这可能拉动了上个月的旅游支出。
The slight improvement might reflect a boost from an earlier public holiday this year — the mid-autumn festival fell in September this year instead of October last year, potentially boosting tourism expenditures for last month. Still, consumers continued to tighten their purse strings, and per-trip tourism spending has been declining in recent years.
不过，消费者仍在继续紧缩钱袋，且近年人均旅游消费一直在下降。此外，根据中国乘用车协会的数据，9月份汽车销量较去年同期下降24%，延续了去年底开始的历史性暴跌。
In addition, car sales slumped 24% in September from a year ago, according to the China Passenger Car Association, extending a historic plunge that began late last year. As for how much more stimulus to expect from the government, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief China economist, Hui Shan, says “not a whole lot — just enough to get to 4.5% growth.”
至于政府还会推出多少刺激措施，高盛集团首席中国经济学家慧山表示：“不会有很多——只要足以支撑4.5%的增长即可。”她在周五接受彭博电视采访时说：“我们一再看到这种举措。更广泛的背景是：一，出口表现相当不错；二，财政限制正变得越来越严峻。”
“We’ve seen this move over and over again,” she told Bloomberg Television on Friday. “The broader backdrop is that, one, exports have been doing pretty well. And, number two, fiscal constraints are getting more and more challenging.”