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南华早报

欧盟支持贸易“一键关闭”机制、中国出口激增及第三季度GDPEU backs trade ‘kill switch’, China exports surge, third-quarter GDP

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欧盟领导人支持创建一种工具,以可能将中国商品拒之门外,因为低价进口的激增推动双边贸易逆差达到创纪录水平。

European Union leaders supported creating a tool to potentially shut out Chinese goods as a growing flood of low-cost imports pushed the bilateral trade deficit to a record.

欧洲委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在周四布鲁塞尔会议上向欧盟领导人暗示,官员们可能开始研发一种贸易“开关”,南华早报援引知情人士的消息报道称。彭博新闻社表示,领导人要求在年底前提交一份方案。该工具仅在极端情况下使用,即当欧盟经济被视为受到攻击时。

Officials could start work on developing a trade “kill switch”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signalled to EU leaders at a Brussels meeting on Thursday, the South China Morning Post reported, citing unidentified people briefed on the talks. Leaders requested a proposal by year-end, Bloomberg News said. The tool would only be used in extreme cases where the EU economy was viewed as being under attack.

冯德莱恩强调,化学品和工业机械是新贸易防御的重点,因为9月份欧盟对华贸易逆差较去年同期增长25.3%,达到348亿美元。上周欧盟领导人在限制混合动力汽车进口方面取得胜利后,可能对应对中国更有信心。中国依赖出口来支撑否则疲软的经济也可能被视为提供杠杆作用,特别是在美国保护主义抬头的背景下,欧洲市场的重要性日益增加。

Von der Leyen highlighted chemicals and industrial machinery as priorities for new trade defences after the September EU-China trade deficit grew by 25.3 per cent from a year earlier to US$34.8 billion. European leaders may feel emboldened about confronting China after winning a cap on hybrid-vehicle imports last week. China’s reliance on exports to support an otherwise limp economy may also be viewed as providing leverage, particularly given the increased importance of European markets amid US protectionism.

包括传统上亲自由贸易的德国在内的欧洲国家正日益采取强硬立场,因为本土企业正面临来自中国的低价竞争激增。例如,据安联贸易报道,本周巴黎车展的一半参展商正是中国品牌。

European nations, including traditionally pro-free-trade Germany, are taking an increasingly tough line as local companies struggle with surging low-cost competition from China. About the half of the exhibitors at this week’s Paris Motor Show, for instance, were Chinese brands, according to Allianz Trade.

然而,如果全面贸易战争爆发,欧盟团结可能很快动摇,因为中国对关键稀土矿产全球供应的垄断以及其庞大国内市场对一些欧洲出口商的重要性。此外,即将到来的选举,尤其是明年的法国总统大选,也可能产生不稳定影响。

Still, EU unity could quickly falter if a full trade war breaks out given China’s stranglehold on global supplies of vital rare earth minerals and the importance of its huge domestic market to some European exporters. Upcoming elections, notably including next year’s French presidential vote, could also have a destabilising effect.

经济数据:在中国大陆建设全球人工智能(AI)热潮刺激了对电脑芯片及其他高科技产品需求之际,中国9月份出口激增36.3%。进口增长了31%。9月份生产者价格较上年同期上涨5%,创下2022年中期以来的最快涨幅。消费者价格仅上涨0.9%。国际货币基金组织将中国的经济增长预测较7月份下调了0.1个百分点。该机构目前预计,今年经济增速将放缓至4.5%,明年放缓至4%。

Economic data: China’s September exports surged by 36.3 per cent as the global artificial intelligence (AI) buildout spurred demand for computer chips and other hi-tech products. Imports grew by 31 per cent. September producer prices rose by 5 per cent from a year earlier, the fastest increase since mid-2022. Consumer prices only went up by 0.9 per cent. The International Monetary Fund trimmed its China growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points versus July. It now sees expansion cooling to 4.5 per cent this year and to 4 per cent next year.

中国将自4月起减少电动汽车出口的退税。该国在贸易可持续性全球排名中下降了三位。证券监管机构发出了可能支持国内股市的信号,该股市较峰值已下跌近20%。

China will reduce tax rebates on electric vehicle exports from April. The country fell three places in a global ranking of trade sustainability. The securities regulator signalled potential support for the domestic stock market, which has fallen by almost 20 per cent from a peak.

科技新闻:在获得批准将《南华早报》所有者阿里巴巴开发的两个AI模型集成到其iPhone中后,苹果将于本月在中国大陆推出Apple Intelligence的测试版。内存制造商长鑫存储正准备推出采用新一代芯片架构的服务器产品,从而实现对韩国竞争对手三星电子和SK海力士的超越。这家芯片制造商迎来了安徽省新任省委书记李乐成的视察,李乐成承诺支持该公司及芯片行业。

Tech news: Apple will introduce a beta version of Apple Intelligence in mainland China this month after winning approval to integrate two AI models developed by SCMP owner Alibaba into its iPhones. Memory maker CXMT is readying to launch server products with a new-generation chip architecture, leapfrogging Korean rivals Samsung and SK Hynix. The chipmaker received a visit from the new Communist Party secretary of Anhui province, Li Lecheng, who pledged support for the company and the chip sector.

芯片制造设备巨头阿斯麦预计今年来自中国的销售额将占其总销售额的20%。AI公司深度求索在经历了一次五小时的服务中断后,已公开道歉并提供退款。

Chipmaking equipment giant ASML expects to get 20 per cent of sales from China this year. AI company DeepSeek apologised and offered refunds following a five-hour outage.

美中关系:在等待九年后,支付巨头Visa获得了在中国开展业务的许可。中国政府表示,此举是国家主席习近平上个月访问华盛顿的“直接成果”。美中两国正力求在下个月于深圳举行的亚太经合组织(APEC)领导人峰会前敲定一份双边人工智能框架。日本官员希望美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在前往亚太经合组织途中访问东京,以此在该国与中国长达一年的争端中突显双边关系。美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯称,鉴于中国的军事现代化,1.5万亿美元的国防预算申请“绝对至关重要”。

US-China ties: Payment giant Visa gained permission to start operations in China following a nine-year wait. The move was a “direct outcome” of President Xi Jinping’s trip to Washington last month, according to the Chinese government. The United States and China are seeking to iron out a bilateral AI framework ahead of a presidential meeting next month at the Apec leaders’ summit in Shenzhen. Japanese officials want US President Donald Trump to visit Tokyo en route to Apec to underscore bilateral ties amid the country’s year-long row with China. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth called a US$1.5 trillion defence budget request “absolutely critical” amid China’s military modernisation.

法治:中国共产党旗舰杂志在本月下旬的一次重要会议召开前发表了一篇讲话文稿,显示国家主席习近平在反腐斗争中承诺“拔除病树”。曾任重庆市长、在政坛沉浮多年的政治人物黄奇帆因涉嫌腐败正接受调查。武汉前市长周先旺因受贿罪被判处14年有期徒刑。缅甸跨境犯罪集团的三名骨干成员被判处死刑。美国监管机构对美国银行处以逾12.1亿美元的罚款,因为该行违反了反洗钱法,其中包括与中国网络有关的交易。

Law and order: President Xi pledged to “uproot sick trees” in the anti-corruption fight, according to the transcript of a speech published by the Communist Party’s flagship magazine ahead of a major conclave later this month. Huang Qifan, the former mayor of Chongqing and a long-term political survivor, was placed under investigation for corruption. Ex-Wuhan mayor Zhou Xiangwang was sentenced to 14 years in jail for bribery. Three leading members of a Myanmar cross-border crime syndicate were sentenced to death. US regulators fined Bank of America more than US$1.21 billion for violations of anti-money-laundering laws including transactions tied to Chinese networks.

香港股市:该市的证券监管机构对涉嫌首次公开募股(IPO)操纵行为进行了打击,震动了当地金融业。智能手机制造商传音控股在完成33.6亿港元的首次公开募股后,其股价在香港上市首日下跌。该发售的散户认购部分仅获得3.5倍超额认购,延续了该市疲软的需求。《南华早报》报道称,在香港证券交易所引入次日交割结算的计划可能会推迟到明年年底之后。

Hong Kong stocks: The city’s securities regulator cracked down on alleged IPO rigging, upending the local finance industry. Shares in smartphone maker Transsion fell on their Hong Kong trading debut after a HK$3.36 billion IPO. The retail portion of the offering was only 3.5 times oversubscribed, extending weak demand in the city. Plans to introduce next-day trade settlements on Hong Kong’s stock exchange may be delayed beyond the end of next year, the SCMP reported.

两岸关系:台湾领导人赖清德在年度双十节讲话中对北京与华盛顿之间的会谈表示欢迎。在伯利兹和巴拉圭与台湾签署协议后,北京对这两个国家的部长实施了制裁。台湾防务部门可能会将军用飞行员的退役年龄提高到 58 岁。两名当地高管因涉嫌在供应给军方的无人机中使用中国大陆制造的零部件而被捕。

Cross-strait ties: Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te welcomed talks between Beijing and Washington during his annual Double Tenth Day address. Beijing sanctioned ministers from Belize and Paraguay after the countries signed deals with Taiwan. The island’s defence ministry may raise the retirement age for military pilots to 58. Two local executives were arrested for allegedly using mainland Chinese-made components in drones supplied to the military.

国内生产总值(GDP)最新情况:中国周一发布数据时,可能会报告季度 GDP 增长率连续第二次低于目标。根据金融数据提供商万得(Wind)汇编的经济学家估计,截至 9 月的三个月中,同比增长率可能为 4.4%。第二季度增长率为 4.3%,低于政府 4.5% 至 5% 的全年目标区间。9 月零售额增速可能从 8 月的 0.4% 加快至 0.7%。月度工业产出可能增长 5.5%。前九个月房地产投资可能下降 19.3%,导致整体固定资产投资下降 7.5%。

GDP update: China may report a second quarter of below-target GDP growth when it publishes data on Monday. Year-on-year expansion was probably 4.4 per cent in the three months ended September, according to economists’ estimates compiled by financial data provider Wind. Second-quarter growth was 4.3 per cent, trailing the government’s full-year target range of 4.5-5 per cent. Retail sales growth probably accelerated to 0.7 per cent in September from 0.4 per cent in August. Monthly industrial output probably rose by 5.5 per cent. Real-estate investment probably fell by 19.3 per cent in the first nine months, fuelling a 7.5 per cent decline in overall spending on fixed assets.

贸易讨论:亚太经合组织(Apec)财政部长将于周二和周三聚集香港出席年度会议。中国财政部长蓝佛安将发表主旨演讲。台湾财政部长庄翠云将出席该活动。据《南华早报》报道,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特可能会缺席。欧盟贸易部长将于周四和周五在都柏林举行非正式会议。

Trade discussions: Apec finance ministers will gather in Hong Kong on Tuesday and Wednesday for their annual meeting. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan will deliver a keynote speech. Taiwanese Finance Minister Chuang Tsui-yun will attend the event. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may be absent, according to the SCMP. EU trade ministers will hold an informal meeting in Dublin on Thursday and Friday.

旨在支持经济或股市的刺激措施。中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清于周一发表主旨演讲。央行行长潘功胜也将发言。

Stimulus measures to support the economy or stocks. Wu Qing, the head of the securities regulator, delivers a keynote address on Monday. Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng will also speak.

中日关系:日本周一开始与美国进行为期11天的军事演习,包括在靠近台湾的岛屿上部署反舰导弹、防空系统和通信网络。在“利刃-27”军演中,日方参演兵力较2024年的上一次演习显著增加,约有4.5万名人员、40艘舰艇和260架飞机参与。美国则派遣了约1.2万名军人。另一方面,关西经济联合会的一个商业代表团可能于周日至周五访问中国。

China-Japan relations: Japan starts 11 days of military drills with the US on Monday, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles, air defences and communications networks on islands near Taiwan. The Japanese contingent in Keen Sword 27 is significantly enlarged from the last drills in 2024, with about 45,000 personnel, 40 ships and 260 aircraft taking part. The US is sending around 12,000 troops. Separately, a business delegation from the Kansai Economic Federation may visit China from Sunday to Friday.

人工智能伴侣规则:针对未成年人互联网使用草案规则的公众意见征求期将于周六结束。中国最高网络监管机构提出的建议包括禁止企业向未成年人提供“虚拟亲密服务”。罚款金额最高可达该服务所产生收入的10倍。

AI companion rules: The window for public comment on draft rules covering internet usage by minors closes on Saturday. Proposals from China’s top online regulator include a ban on companies offering “virtual intimacy services” to minors. Fines would be as high as 10 times the income generated from the services.

北京马拉松:周日,约3.2万名跑者走上中国首都的街头,参加这项该国历史最悠久的城市马拉松比赛。北京马拉松从天安门广场起步,沿风景优美的北部路线前行,终点设在鸟巢体育场和水立方之间的北京奥林匹克公园。

Beijing Marathon: Some 32,000 runners hit the streets of China’s capital on Sunday for the nation’s oldest city marathon. The Beijing Marathon starts in Tiananmen Square, follows a scenic northern route and ends in the Beijing Olympic Park between the Bird’s Nest stadium and the Water Cube.