美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行在政策上趋紧，英国政策制定者在通胀预期上升的情况下权衡进一步加息。经济学家胡威·迪克森警告称，随着2027年的到来，增长可能停滞，多个七国集团经济体出现衰退的可能性增加。能源成本上升正在重新引发主要经济体的通胀压力，促使利率上升，并使央行在不损害增长的前提下控制物价的努力变得更加复杂。
Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan tighten policy as UK policymakers weigh further rate increases amid higher inflation forecasts Economist Huw Dixon warns growth could stall heading into 2027, with recessions probable in several G7 economies Rising energy costs are renewing inflation pressures across major economies, prompting interest-rate increases and complicating central banks’ efforts to contain prices without undermining growth.
美国联邦储备系统、欧洲央行和日本央行在9月提高了借贷成本，而英格兰银行尽管对通胀前景日益担忧，仍将基准利率维持不变。
The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan raised borrowing costs in September, while the Bank of England held its benchmark rate steady despite growing concerns about the inflation outlook.
卡迪夫大学经济学荣休教授胡威·迪克森向安纳多卢通讯社表示，伊朗战争引发的能源危机自年初以来显著改变了人们对通胀和货币政策的预期。
Huw Dixon, emeritus professor of economics at Cardiff University, told Anadolu that the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war had substantially changed expectations for inflation and monetary policy since the beginning of the year.
他警告称，随着2027年的到来，增长可能停滞，多个七国集团经济体出现衰退的可能性增加。
He warned that growth could stall heading into 2027, with recessions probable in several Group of Seven economies.
他说：“利率将不得不上升以控制通胀，但也许我们会看到政策利率高于但低于通胀率，以此来限制对实体经济的损害。”
“Interest rates will have to rise to control inflation, but perhaps we will see policy rates high but below inflation again so as to limit damage to the real economy,” he said.
迪克森认为，除非与俄罗斯爆发冲突，否则央行不会重蹈2008年金融危机期间转向零利率的覆辙。
Dixon argued that central banks would not repeat the shift toward zero interest rates seen during the 2008 financial crisis unless a conflict with Russia broke out.
他的评估凸显了政策制定者所面临的竞争性压力：更高的能源账单正在挤压消费支出，同时也在推高企业成本。
His assessment highlights the competing pressures facing policymakers as higher energy bills squeeze spending while also raising businesses’ costs.
美国和欧元区通胀加速。根据劳工统计局的数据，美国9月份年度消费者通胀率从8月份的3.4%升至3.7%。
US and eurozone inflation accelerate US annual consumer inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
环比上涨0.6%，其中汽油价格上涨9.1%，占整体涨幅的一半以上。剔除食品和能源的年度核心通胀率从2.4%加速至2.6%。
Prices increased 0.6% month-on-month, with a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices accounting for more than half the overall rise. Annual core inflation, excluding food and energy, accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%.
能源价格较去年同期上涨20.4%。汽油价格年涨幅达34.2%，而燃油价格年涨幅达74.2%。
Energy prices were 20.4% higher than a year earlier. Gasoline prices rose 34.2% annually, while fuel oil prices climbed 74.2%.
价格压力也扩展到了能源以外的领域。住房成本在当月上涨了0.4%，而休闲、二手车、教育和机票价格也出现了上涨。
Price pressures also extended beyond energy. Shelter costs increased 0.4% over the month, while recreation, used vehicles, education and airline fares also became more expensive.
美联储于9月16日以一致决定将其基准联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点至3.75%-4%。
The Fed raised its benchmark federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16 in a unanimous decision.
它表示通胀仍然居高不下，此次上调将有助于更及时地实现其2%的目标。然而，其对经济活动的评估仍然相对稳健，指出国内消费韧性、生产力强劲增长和资本投资稳固。
It said inflation remained elevated and the increase would support a timelier return to its 2% goal. However, its assessment of activity remained relatively firm, pointing to resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth and robust capital investment.
在欧元区，根据Eurostat的快报，9月份年通胀率从8月份的3.2%升至估计的3.8%。
In the euro area, annual inflation accelerated to an estimated 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, according to Eurostat’s flash release.
能源通胀从14.3%升至18.8%，而服务业通胀从3.0%升至3.2%。剔除能源、食品、酒精和烟草后的通胀率从2.4%微升至2.5%。
Energy inflation climbed to 18.8% from 14.3%, while services inflation increased to 3.2% from 3%. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco edged up to 2.5% from 2.4%.
欧洲央行于9月10日将其三项关键利率均上调25个基点，使存款便利利率达到2.5%。
The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 10, taking its deposit facility rate to 2.5%.
它警告称，中东冲突正在产生可能导致价格增长在较长时期内远高于目标水平的通胀压力。
It warned that the Middle East conflict was generating inflation pressures likely to keep price growth well above target for an extended period.
其9月份的预测显示，2026年平均通胀率为3%，2027年为2.5%，2028年为2.1%，其中后两年的预测较6月份上调。
Its September projections put average inflation at 3% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with the latter two forecasts revised upward from June.
然而，欧洲央行仍预测今年经济将增长0.9%，明年增长1.4%，将其基线展望与迪克森关于可能出现衰退的警告区分开来。它指出通胀存在上行风险，增长存在下行风险，同时避免对特定利率路径作出承诺。
The ECB nevertheless projected continued growth of 0.9% this year and 1.4% next year, distinguishing its baseline outlook from Dixon’s warning of possible recessions. It identified upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, while avoiding a commitment to a particular rate path.
英国对政策的预期趋向紧缩 英格兰银行于9月17日以6比3的投票结果维持其基准利率在3.75%不变，其中三名政策制定者支持将利率上调至4%。
UK expectations shift toward tighter policy The Bank of England maintained its benchmark rate at 3.75% on Sept. 17 by a 6-3 vote, with three policymakers favoring an increase to 4%.
英国8月份通胀率达到3.1%。该行的更新评估表明，通胀率可能在第四季度达到约3.75%，而7月份的预测为3.2%，且在2027年初略高于4%。
UK inflation reached 3.1% in August. The bank’s updated assessment indicated inflation could reach around 3.75% in the fourth quarter, compared with the 3.2% projected in July, and slightly above 4% in early 2027.
政策制定者报告称，迄今为止几乎没有发现工资和价格制定出现实质性溢出的证据，但认为能源成本保持高位的时间越长，风险就会越大。
Policymakers reported little evidence of substantial spillovers into wage and price-setting so far, but judged that the risk would grow the longer energy costs remained elevated.
迪克森表示，在美以对伊朗发动袭击之前，英国通胀曾被预期将在4月降至2%，利率将降至3%-3.5%的区间。
Dixon said that before the US-Israeli attack on Iran, UK inflation had been expected to fall to 2% by April and interest rates to decline to a range of 3%-3.5%.
他现在预计通胀将在年底前达到4%，如果战争重新爆发，2027年可能进一步上升。
He now expects inflation to reach 4% by year-end and potentially rise further in 2027 if the war resumes.
“英格兰银行的利率将上升，”他说，并描述了西欧和美国前景出现类似转变。
“Bank of England rates will rise,” he said, describing a similar shift in the outlook for Western Europe and the US.
该行9月份的会议纪要显示，调查受访者预计利率将在一段时间内保持不变，而市场定价则指向上行。
The bank’s September minutes showed that survey respondents anticipated a prolonged period of unchanged rates, while market pricing pointed upward.
政策制定者警告称，风险溢价部分解释了市场曲线，这意味着它并不只是代表对未来利率决策的预期。
Policymakers cautioned that risk premiums partly explained the market curve, meaning it did not simply represent expectations of future rate decisions.
更高的市场借贷成本已经传导至家庭：报告的两年期固定抵押贷款利率较冲突前水平高出约95个基点。
Higher market borrowing costs were already reaching households: quoted two-year fixed mortgage rates were around 95 basis points above their pre-conflict level.
日本在通胀下降的情况下仍趋紧政策 日本统计局数据显示，8月日本年度 headline 通胀率为1.9%，剔除鲜食后的通胀率为1.7%。
Japan tightens despite lower headline inflation Japan’s annual headline inflation stood at 1.9% in August, while inflation excluding fresh food was 1.7%, according to the Statistics Bureau.
然而，日本银行仍于9月18日以7比2的投票结果将隔夜政策利率目标提高至约1.25%。
The Bank of Japan nevertheless raised its overnight policy-rate target to around 1.25% on Sept. 18 by a 7-2 vote.
其理由是中长期通胀预期上升，以及随着企业将更高工资和投入成本转嫁至售价，底层通胀有可能超过其2%目标的风险。
It cited rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations and the risk that underlying inflation could exceed its 2% target as companies increasingly passed higher wages and input costs into selling prices.
该行还指出，高原油价格、日元贬值以及人工智能相关产品的需求是价格压力的来源。
The bank also identified high crude oil prices, yen depreciation and demand for artificial intelligence-related products as sources of price pressure.
它预计，2026财年下半年剔除鲜食后的通胀将明显加速超过2%，并表示将根据经济和价格发展情况进一步考虑加息。
It expected inflation excluding fresh food to accelerate clearly above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, while signaling further rate increases depending on economic and price developments.
迪克森警告称，长期的不确定性可能会削弱公众对中央银行维持物价稳定能力的信心。
Dixon warned that prolonged uncertainty could undermine confidence in central banks’ ability to maintain price stability.
“近年来，预期一直保持稳定，但不确定性如此之大，我怀疑如果中央银行再次让通胀失控，这种状况可能会瓦解，”他说。
“Expectations have been anchored in recent years, but there is so much uncertainty I suspect this may break down if central banks let inflation get out of control again,” he said.