共和党人对于民众对经济形势的负面看法感到十分沮丧。眼下经济增长势头正劲，甚至有人预言美国即将迎来所谓的经济“黄金时代”，可民众的态度却依然消极。物价持续上涨是当前最棘手的问题，而最新公布的通胀数据也未能扭转选民们的悲观情绪。近日发布的消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数均高于预期，对共和党而言，这无疑是雪上加霜。
Republicans are frustrated that the public has such a sour view of the economy, especially when growth is accelerating and we may be on the cusp of what some are calling America’s economic “golden age.”Rising prices are the ongoing problem, and the most recent inflation readings did nothing to turn around voters’ gloom. A hotter-then-expected Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, delivered in recent days, could not have come at a worse time for the Republican Party.
最新数据显示，通胀非但没有放缓，反而在上个月进一步加速：环比涨幅从8月的0.4%升至0.6%。不出所料，这一涨幅中超过一半源于能源价格的上涨，当月能源价格环比增长了5.2%。剔除能源与食品后的核心物价指数则与8月持平，同样增长了0.3%。
The latest report indicated that inflation, instead of moderating, actually accelerated last month, jumping 0.6 percent month-to-month after rising 0.4 percent in August. More than half the increase, not surprisingly, was from higher energy prices, which rose 5.2 percent from the previous month. Core prices, excluding energy and food, gained 0.3 percent, as they did in August.
鉴于民主党一直将物价可负担性作为夺回国会控制权的核心论据，他们自然对这一消息欣喜不已。
Given that Democrats have made affordability the centerpiece of their argument for taking back control of Congress, they seized on the news with glee.
众议院民主党团在社交平台X上发文称：“特朗普曾承诺上任首日就降低物价、遏制通胀，可现实却完全相反。这位总统彻底失败了。”高于预期的通胀水平引发了民众对经济的悲观情绪，这也导致总统及共和党的支持率持续走低，大大削弱了共和党在下个月中期选举中保住众议院与参议院多数席位的可能性。
The House Democratic Caucus posted on X, “Trump promised to lower costs and end inflation on day one. The exact opposite has happened. This president has been a total failure.”Consumer pessimism about the economy, brought on by higher-then-expected inflation, has translated into poor approval ratings for the president and the Republican Party, dimming chances that Republicans will hold onto their majority in the House and the Senate in the midterm elections next month.
这不是常态；通常情况下，共和党人在诸如“你更信任哪个政党来处理经济？”之类的问题上的得分高于民主党人。但今天不是这样。华盛顿邮报的一则近期标题捕捉到了这一时刻：“自2012年以来，民主党人首次在关键民调中对经济持有显著优势。”该报写道：“当被问及‘你认为哪个政党能更好地让国家保持繁荣？’时，51%的成年人选择了民主党人，而选择共和党人的比例仅为37%。”
That isn’t the norm; typically, Republicans score higher than Democrats on questions like “Who do you trust more to handle the economy?”Not today. A recent Washington Post headline captures the moment: “Democrats hold big edge on economy in key poll for first time since 2012.”The Post writes, “A majority of adults, 51 percent, chose Democrats when asked, ‘Which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous?’ A smaller group, 37 percent, selected Republicans.”
这种情感转变令人沮丧，因为从许多方面来看，它并不合理。美国的银行最近报告了主要强劲的盈利。但来自全国各银行的最值得注意的信息是，消费者状况极佳。
The sentiment shift is frustrating because, in many ways, it doesn’t make sense. America’s banks recently reported mainly strong earnings. But the most noteworthy information delivered from our nation’s banks was that the consumer is doing extremely well.
摩根大通报告称，信用卡和借记卡的销售额较去年增长了10%。富国银行的公告指出，信用卡消费增长了惊人的12%，借记卡消费增长了8%。花旗银行也没有落后，其卡片消费激增了13%。
JPMorgan reported that credit and debit card sales volume was up 10 percent over last year. Wells Fargo’s release cited an incredible 12 percent gain in credit card charges, and an 8 percent jump in debit card spending. Not left behind was Citigroup, where card spending soared 13 percent.
这些数字对一个在12年里记录了最低信心水平的人口来说是非凡的。而且，消费激增并非仅仅因为汽油价格上涨所致——虽然这确实产生了一定影响。此外，支出增加也不是由不断攀升的债务融资的。事实上，摩根大通实际上降低了消费者信用卡债务的核销率，表明借款人正在跟上还款。其他银行也报告了消费者信用质量的改善。
Those are extraordinary numbers for a population recording the lowest confidence numbers in 12 years. And no, the spending surge was not boosted solely because of higher gasoline prices, though that had an impact. Nor were rising outlays financed by mounting debt. In fact, JP Morgan actually dropped the rate of charge-off’s on consumer credit card debt, indicating that borrowers were keeping up. The other banks also reported improving consumer credit quality.
这怎么可能？据富国银行首席执行官称，消费者之所以在花钱，是因为强劲的就业和工资增长帮助美国人吸收了更高的价格。花旗银行首席执行官简·弗雷泽也说了类似的话：“劳动力市场稳定，公司仍然保持活跃。”这里存在脱节：经济增长、实际收入增加、低失业率以及其他健康经济的迹象，都被一层对通胀的焦虑所掩盖。当然，自由派媒体和参选的民主党人放大了关于价格上涨的坏消息，却忽视了更积极的消息。
How could this be? According to Wells Fargo’s CEO, consumers are spending because strong employment and wage growth have helped Americans absorb higher prices. Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi, said much the same: “The labor market is stable and companies remain active.”Here’s the disconnect: economic growth, real income gains, low unemployment and other signs of a healthy economy have been buried under a blanket of anxiety about inflation. Certainly, the liberal media and Democrats running for office have amplified the bad news about rising prices and ignored the more positive news.
更糟的是，共和党候选人似乎在传递好消息方面极其笨拙。共和党人似乎害怕重复拜登总统在准备竞选连任时犯的错误：告诉美国人他们其实并不了解自己实际有多富裕。当然，那是在通胀达到超过9%的峰值时；如今，数据远没有那么糟糕，但消费者正面临自疫情袭击全国以来累计涨幅超过20%的价格跳升——其中大部分发生在拜登任期内。
Making matters worse, Republican candidates appear incredibly inept at delivering the good news. Republicans seem fearful of repeating the error made by President Biden as he prepared to run for a second term: telling Americans they didn’t understand how well off they actually were. Of course, that was as inflation hit a peak of more than 9 percent; today, the numbers are not nearly so bad, but consumers are dealing with a cumulative price jump of more than 20 percent since COVID hit the nation — most of it occurring on Biden’s watch.
华尔街日报的杰拉德·贝克在一篇题为《经济才是关键，傻瓜——但有多傻？》的社论中表达了他的沮丧（并触及了质疑选民判断力的“第三根轨道”）。他指出：“正如1992年那样，民主党人正凭借对经济形势艰难的错误认知而有望大获全胜。”将今天与克林顿总统首次参选总统的那一年相比较，贝克指出：“但如今正如当时一样，可能是对经济的错误认知而非经济现实本身在推动投票行为，而且如今正如当时一样，美国正处于经济黄金时代的早期阶段。”
Gerard Baker at The Wall Street Journal voiced his frustration (and touched that third rail of questioning voters’ judgement) in an op-ed titled, “It’s the Economy, Stupid—but How Stupid?”He pointed out that, “As in 1992, Democrats are poised to win big based on mistaken perceptions that times are difficult.”Comparing today to the year that President Clinton was running for president the first time, Baker notes, “But now as then, it may be that a flawed perception of the economy rather than economic reality is driving voting behavior, and that now as then the U.S. is in the early stages of an economic golden age.”
他提醒读者：“到美国人在那次11月投票的时候，克林顿州长在竞选中对共和党人老布什的言辞攻击所利用的经济衰退早已结束。1992年下半年，国内生产总值以年化4%的速度增长。失业率在那年夏天达到峰值，并在新总统就职前急剧下降。”这并不重要。克林顿向公众兜售经济形势糟糕的观念，并因此获胜。
He reminds readers that, “By the time Americans voted that November, the recession Gov. Clinton had rhetorically exploited [in his campaign against Republican George H.W. Bush] was long over. During the second half of 1992, gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4 percent. Unemployment peaked that summer and was falling sharply by the time the new president took office.”It didn’t matter. Clinton sold the public that the economy was in bad shape, and he won.
如今，我们正享受着稳健的增长、实际收入上升、失业率低（且持续申领人数非常低）、股市接近历史高点以及投资热潮。此外，正如贝克所说，我们可能确实正站在他所说的经济“黄金时代”的门槛上，这是因为人工智能可能带来的潜在收益。
Today, we are enjoying solid growth, rising real incomes, low unemployment (and continuing claims are very low), stock markets near record high, and an investment boom. Moreover, we may indeed be on the precipice of what Baker calls an economic “golden age” because of the potential gains from artificial intelligence.
黑石集团首席执行官拉里·芬克也在《华尔街日报》上发表了类似观点，他写道，人工智能“似乎有可能带来巨大增长。这种增长将是解决美国经济致命弱点——联邦债务的答案，而该债务如今已达到创纪录的40万亿美元。通过每年超过3%的经济增长，国家最终能够兑现其承诺……人工智能使这种增长比过去几十年更具可实现性。”公众对这种潜在的黄金时代持如此负面态度，真是讽刺。利兹·皮克是华尔街大型投行韦特海姆公司的前合伙人。
Black Rock CEO Larry Fink, also writing in the Journal, voiced similar sentiments, writing that AI “seemed likely to produce tremendous growth. That growth was the answer to America’s economic Achilles’ heel, its federal debt, which has now reached a record $40 trillion. Expanding the economy by more than 3% a year is ultimately how countries meet the promises they have made … AI makes that kind of growth more achievable than it has been in decades.”How ironic that the public has turned so negative on this potential golden age. Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim and Company.