
BANGKOK, 10月16日:国际货币基金组织总裁于周五呼吁全球领导人在面对多重经济风险,包括人工智能快速发展和中东持久战争的情况下,加强合作,以应对这些挑战,同时华盛顿赞扬其认为的美国主导的经济动能。
BANGKOK, Oct 16 : The head of the IMF on Friday appealed to global leaders to cooperate in the face of multiple economic risks, including rapid advances in AI and a prolonged war in the Middle East, as Washington hailed what it sees as US-led economic momentum.
这些截然不同的观点在本年度的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议中在曼谷回响,来自全球的财政官员和央行行长们在审视一个受高通胀和利率上升影响的全球经济,该经济导致增长缓慢并加剧了不平等。
Their contrasting views echoed throughout this year's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bangkok, as finance officials and central bankers from around the world took stock of a global economy rocked by high inflation and rising interest rates that have kept growth sluggish and increased inequality.
国际货币基金组织周二略微上调了其2026年全球增长预测至3.1%,远低于历史平均水平,同时警告了人工智能投资热潮可能结束、债务水平上升以及中东冲突持续对经济稳定和金融稳定构成重大风险。
The IMF on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2026, well below the historical average, as it flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, growing debt levels and the ongoing Middle East conflict.
若非美国以色列领导的针对伊朗的战争以及德黑兰封锁霍尔木兹海峡所引发的重大全球能源冲击,国际货币基金组织表示,它原本预期人工智能将推动更显著的增长。
Absent the US-Israeli-led war against Iran and Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz that triggered a massive global energy shock, the IMF has said it would have expected AI to have fueled much stronger growth.
周五,国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥吉耶娃表示,技术变革的迅猛速度加剧了包括全球贸易体系受到冲击、高食品和能源价格以及持续战争在内的多重挑战,这些都威胁将发达经济与世界贫困地区之间的鸿沟进一步拉大。
On Friday, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said the sheer speed of technological change added to the long list of challenges, including disruptions to the global trading system, high food and energy prices and lingering wars, all of which threatened to widen the gulf between advanced economies and the world's poor.
她指出,债券市场已清晰地感知到这些风险,美国、德国和日本10年期国债收益率已达到数十年来的最高水平。
Bond markets, she said, were clearly sensing the risks, with US, German and Japanese 10-year sovereign yields reaching their highest levels in decades.
“此时此刻的迫切需求是紧急行动和务实的国际合作,”身为新兴市场国家首位国际货币基金组织总裁的格奥吉耶娃在周五的全体会议上说道。她在随后的圆桌会议上补充说,她整夜未眠,担忧如何监管人工智能,并确保贫困国家不会因其快速发展而被甩在身后。
"The need of the hour is for urgent and practical international cooperation," Georgieva, the first IMF chief from an emerging market economy, said at a plenary session on Friday. She told a subsequent panel that she spent sleepless nights worrying about how to regulate AI and ensure that poorer countries weren't left behind by its breakneck-speed development.
美国财政部副部长埃琳·布朗在与记者的通话中驳斥了这些警告,称赞美国股市创历史新高、美国经济产出强劲以及日本经济改善。
US Treasury Under Secretary Erin Browne, in a call with reporters, pushed back against those warnings, hailing record highs on the US stock market, strong US economic output and improvements in Japan's economy.
她说:“国际货币基金组织需要采取更为平衡的方式来评估全球经济前景。”她补充道:“全球经济展现出显著韧性,美国的强劲增长有助于支撑更广泛的经济和金融稳定。”
"The IMF needs to take a more balanced approach to assessing the global economic outlook," she said, adding: "The global economy has demonstrated significant resilience with strong US growth helping to support broader economic and financial stability."
她表示,基金应同样考虑“积极经济冲击的机遇,特别是由美国创新和超级智能、能源丰富以及提升生产力的改革所驱动的机遇。”美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在税收、贸易、能源和放松管制方面的政策正为更强的投资、更高的生产力和持久的经济增长铺平道路,她说。
She said that the Fund should give equal consideration to "opportunities for positive economic shocks, particularly those driven by American innovation and super intelligence, energy abundance, and productivity-enhancing reforms." US President Donald Trump's policies on tax, trade, energy and deregulation were paving the way for stronger investment, higher productivity and durable economic growth, she said.
人工智能担忧冲击股市 新兴市场股票在过去几周出现波动,原因是预期美国利率上升导致借贷成本急剧上升。主要市场也受到对人工智能投资周期日益增长的担忧的影响。
AI JITTERS HIT STOCKS Emerging market stocks have been volatile in recent weeks, roiled by expectations of higher US interest rates that have sent borrowing costs sharply higher. Major markets have also been hit by the growing concerns over the AI investment cycle.
韩国股市出现18年来最大单周跌幅,因为投资者对人工智能热潮的可持续性提出质疑;与此同时,日本股市一周内下跌了5.4%。
South Korean shares posted their biggest weekly fall in 18 years as investors questioned the sustainability of the AI boom, while Japan's stock market lost 5.4 per cent over the week.
菲律宾央行行长埃利·雷莫洛纳在本周早些时候的国际货币基金组织小组讨论中表示,他担心亚洲尚未吸取1990年代末那场破坏性金融危机的教训。
Eli Remolona, governor of the Philippines' Bangko Sentral ng Pilipanas, said in an IMF panel discussion earlier in the week that he was concerned Asia had not learned the lessons of its destructive financial crisis in the late 1990s.
雷莫洛纳表示,在1997年亚洲金融危机爆发之前,各经济体曾吸引大量资本流入,以至于世界银行曾将其形容为“东亚奇迹”。
Before the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, economies drew huge capital inflows that prompted the World Bank to describe it as the "East Asian miracle," Remolona said.
“投资涌入亚洲,随后出现了危机,因为那并不是真正的奇迹。我认为我们必须提醒自己这一点。我们必须防范这种危机。”他周三表示。“我们实际上并没有在这方面投入太多精力来审视这种危机。”为了说明对突发变化的脆弱性,印尼股票在周五下跌11.6%,这是28年来最大的单日跌幅,此前全球指数提供商MSCI表示,印尼市场不再具备“新兴市场”的资格。
"Investment poured into Asia, and then you had the crisis because it wasn't really a miracle. I think we have to remind ourselves about that. We have to guard against that kind of crisis," he said on Wednesday. "We have not really been making a lot of effort looking at that kind of crisis." Illustrating the vulnerability to sudden shifts, Indonesian stocks fell 11.6 per cent on Friday, their steepest one-day fall in 28 years, after global index provider MSCI said the Indonesian market was no longer worthy of "emerging market" status.
本周,国际货币基金组织和世界银行的官员表示,他们正在看到对补助金和贷款项目的需求上升。
Officials at the IMF and World Bank this week said they are seeing elevated demand for grant and loan programs.
国际货币基金组织战略主管克里斯蒂安·穆姆森表示,自新冠疫情以来,该组织对低收入国家的低息贷款已增长了四倍,且需求预计将保持强劲。他表示,自疫情以来,国际货币基金组织约60%的融资已用于低收入国家。
IMF strategy chief Christian Mummsen said the IMF's low-interest lending to low-income countries had quadrupled since the COVID pandemic, and demand was expected to remain strong. About 60 per cent of the IMF's financing since COVID had gone to low-income countries, he said.
发展中国家日益直言不讳地表达他们的担忧。本周,巴巴多斯加入了一些国家的行列,呼吁成立一个国际小组来应对不平等问题,理由是地缘政治紧张、气候变化以及可能进一步拉大富国与穷国差距的快速技术进步。
Developing countries are increasingly outspoken about their concerns. Barbados this week joined a group of countries calling for the creation of an international panel to address inequality, citing geopolitical tensions, climate change and rapid technological advances that could further divide wealthy and poorer nations.