CNN News Central的记者约翰·伯纳姆和首席数据分析师哈里·恩登分析了民主党在乔治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州进行历史性参议院全线获胜的可能性。他们分析了有利的民调如何使1960年水平的全线获胜成为可能，并探讨了预测市场为何仍将乔治亚州州长选举视为紧凑的角逐。
CNN News Central's John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten look at the Democrats' chances of pulling off a historic Southern Senate sweep in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. They break down how favorable polling could make a 1960-level sweep possible and examine why prediction markets still show the Georgia Governor's race as a tight toss-up.
周六将进行直播，需订阅才能观看全部内容。 特朗普总统今日将前往乔治亚州，尽管参议院选举的局势对共和党人来说可能越来越不利。这究竟说明了什么？让我们一起来听听CNN首席数据分析师哈里·恩滕的看法吧。 目前来看，现任民主党参议员乔恩·奥斯奥夫的连任前景非常乐观。 乔恩·奥斯奥夫在竞选中表现极为出色；对于这位来自乔治亚州的参议员来说，今年真是意义非凡的一年啊！ 看看这份由《Cook Political Report》提供的选举排名吧：年初时局势还相当胶着，到了六月奥斯奥夫的领先优势已经明显；现在看来他很有机会在乔治亚州赢得连任。 当然，这也为他未来可能竞选总统奠定了基础。 今年许多关键的选举都在南方地区举行。 过去几十年里，美国南部一直是民主党的“ Waterloo”（即民主党的失败之地）……但情况已经改变了！ 看看这些民调数据吧：在乔治亚州，民主党领先13个百分点；北卡罗来纳州的前州长罗伊·库珀的竞选形势也极为有利（领先10个百分点）；而在德克萨斯州，虽然选举结果仍难以预测，但詹姆斯·塔拉里科目前仍略微领先。 这些关键州的选举结果确实令人震惊——即使在民调中仅领先一点点，民主党也几乎能确保这三个州的胜利。 民主党确实非常需要这样的好结果啊！他们需要在未来改变地图，因为地图在此处以其他方式对他们不利。
SATURDAY STREAMING NEXT DAY WITH AN ALL ACCESS SUBSCRIPTION. >> PRESIDENT TRUMP HEADS TO GEORGIA TODAY, EVEN THOUGH THE SENATE RACE. THERE MIGHT BE INCREASINGLY OUT OF REACH FOR REPUBLICANS. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT THE STATE OF THE RACE FOR CONTROL OF THE SENATE THIS YEAR, AND MAYBE BEYOND?
这在历史上属于什么情况？>> 是的。好的。你知道，正如约翰·约翰尼所说，共和党人在中西部表现得更好，对吧？民主党人在南部表现得更好。你知道，我在想上次民主党人在同一年在这三个州的参议院选举中全部获胜是什么时候？哇。你必须追溯到1960年，当时林登·贝恩斯·约翰逊正在德克萨斯州竞选连任。>> 这就产生了林登·贝恩斯·约翰逊规则，即你既可以作为参议员出现在选票上，也可以作为总统候选人出现在选票上。
WITH US NOW, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST HARRY ENTEN. LET'S TALK ABOUT GEORGIA AND THE INCUMBENT DEMOCRATIC SENATOR JON OSSOFF, WHO LOOKS BETTER AND BETTER IN TERMS OF BEING REELECTED. >> JON OSSOFF IS ABSOLUTELY DOMINATING THIS RACE. WHAT A CAMPAIGN. WHAT A YEAR FOR THE SENATOR FROM THE GREAT STATE OF GEORGIA. I MEAN, TAKE A LOOK AT HERE. THIS IS THE RACE RATINGS PROVIDED BY THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT IN GEORGIA. YOU KNOW, START OFF THE YEAR. HEY, IT'S A TOSS UP. THEN BY JUNE IT WAS LEAN OSSOFF. AND NOW IT IS LIKELY THAT JON OSSOFF WINS REELECTION IN THE GREAT STATE OF GEORGIA. AND THIS, OF COURSE, SETS HIM UP. A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK VERY NICELY FOR A POTENTIAL RUN FOR PRESIDENT TWO YEARS FROM NOW. >> AND OF COURSE, A LOT OF THE KEY RACES IN PLAY THIS YEAR ARE IN THE SOUTH. >> YEAH. THIS, I THINK IS EXACTLY RIGHT. MR. BERMAN, THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN A WATERLOO, HAS BEEN A WATERLOO FOR DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES. NO MORE, NO MORE. I MEAN, JUST TAKE A LOOK AT THESE POLLING.
正确吗？完全正确。那是洛伊德·本森在1988年德克萨斯州所做的事情，当然。但那一年，民主党人在这三个州都没有取得胜利。>> 好的。参议院选举对共和党人来说在佐治亚州可能遥不可及，但那里有一场激烈竞争的州长选举。其中之一。>> 是的，这就是我们在这里讨论的事情。根据现金预测市场，赢得佐治亚州州长选举的机会。
OKAY? KEY SOUTHERN SENATE RACES. DEMS ARE 13 POINTS UP IN GEORGIA. HOW ABOUT ROY COOPER, THE FORMER GOVERNOR IN NORTH CAROLINA. WE'RE NOT REALLY EVEN TALKING ABOUT THIS RACE ANYMORE. HE'S UP TEN. AND IN TEXAS WE OBVIOUSLY HAVE THAT CLOSE RACE. BUT JAMES TALARICO NORMALLY AHEAD. OF COURSE, THAT RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS POINT, BUT HE'S UP THREE. SO WE SEE GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA, TEXAS. YOU NEVER THINK THAT EVEN IN THE POLLING, EVEN IF YOU'RE UP BY JUST A LITTLE BIT MARGIN, THAT YOU'D SEE ALL THREE OF THESE IN BLUE AT THIS POINT. THAT'S QUITE SOMETHING. >> YEAH. AND DEMOCRATS NEED THIS. THEY NEED TO CHANGE THE MAP GOING FORWARD BECAUSE THE MAP HAS BEEN CHANGING AGAINST THEM IN OTHER WAYS HERE. WHERE DOES THIS SORT OF FIT INTO HISTORY? >> YEAH. OKAY. YOU KNOW, AS JOHN JOHNNY SAID, REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER IN THE MIDWEST, RIGHT?
你不可能再接近这个了。我的意思是，看看这个，瑞克·杰克逊。52%。凯莎·兰斯·巴顿斯有48%的获胜机会。这就是佐治亚州在选举之夜将要围绕的事情。在这场佐治亚州州长选举中，谁会获胜？凯莎·兰斯·巴顿斯会成为佐治亚州这个伟大州的首位非裔美国州长吗？我们只能等待看看。或者共和党人会在那里守住州长官邸？
THE DEMOCRATS ARE DOING BETTER IN THE SOUTH. YOU KNOW, I WAS THINKING ABOUT WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT DEMOCRATS IN THE SAME YEAR WON ALL THREE OF THESE STATES IN A SENATE RACE? WOW. YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1960, WHEN LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON WAS RUNNING FOR REELECTION IN TEXAS. >> IT CREATED THE LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON RULE, WHERE YOU COULD BE ON THE BALLOT AS A SENATOR AND ON THE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET. >> CORRECT? EXACTLY RIGHT. THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT LLOYD BENTSEN, OF COURSE, DID IN TEXAS IN 1988. BUT IN THAT YEAR, YOU DID NOT HAVE THOSE WINS FOR DEMOCRATS IN ALL THREE OF THESE STATES. >> OKAY. THE SENATE RACE MIGHT BE OUT OF REACH FOR REPUBLICANS IN GEORGIA, BUT THERE IS A HOTLY CONTESTED GOVERNOR'S RACE THERE. ONE OF THE. >> YEAH, THIS IS THIS IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT RIGHT HERE. THE CHANCE TO WIN THE GEORGIA GOVERNOR'S RACE, ACCORDING TO THE CASH PREDICTION MARKET. YOU CAN'T REALLY GET ANY CLOSER THAN THIS. I MEAN RICK JACKSON LOOK AT THIS. A 52%. KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS A 48% CHANCE. THIS IS WHAT GEORGIA'S GOING TO BE ABOUT ON ELECTION NIGHT.
自1998年以来，佐治亚州尚未选出过民主党州长。>> 哈里埃特，非常感谢你。谢谢。祝你周末愉快。今天早上有很多新闻。我们马上回来。>> 去比尔队。>> 赔率。
WHO WINS IN THIS GEORGIA IN THIS GEORGIA GUBERNATORIAL RACE. WELL KEISHA LANCE BOTTOMS BE THE FIRST AFRICAN-AMERICAN GOVERNOR FROM THE GREAT STATE OF GEORGIA. WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. OR DO REPUBLICANS HOLD ON TO THE GOVERNOR'S MANSION THERE? THERE HAS NOT BEEN A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR ELECTED IN GEORGIA SINCE 1998. >> HARRIETTE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THANK YOU. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. A LOT OF NEWS THIS MORNING. WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK. >> GO BILLS. >> THE ODDS.