美元有望终结四周连涨走势，原因是美联储主席凯文·沃什的言论未能提振其表现。
The dollar is about to break a four-week winning streak after remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh failed to give it a lift.
彭博美元现货指数周五一度下跌0.4%，正面临自9月4日以来最差的一周。美元对多数主要货币走弱，欧元上扬，有望终结五周连跌。
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4% on Friday, heading for its worst week since Sept. 4. The greenback weakened against most of its major peers, with the euro advancing, poised to snap a five-week run of losses.
投资者削减了对本月晚些时候加息的押注，因为沃什在周五上午于曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织年会上未就货币政策或美国经济发表评论。这是沃什在美联储进入所谓的禁言期之前最后一次暗示其政策观点的机会，该禁言期将从周六开始，直至其10月政策会议。
Investors pared bets on an interest-rate hike later this month after Warsh did not comment on monetary policy or the US economy at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings Friday morning in Bangkok. It was the last chance for Warsh to hint at his policy view before the Fed enters a so-called blackout period Saturday prior to its October policy meeting.
“沃什未提供任何指引，虽然这一点在他目前的位置上本应是预期中的，但市场将其解读为10月美联储会议很可能不会加息的信号，”加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场策略师诺亚·巴法姆表示。
“Warsh offered no guidance, which while it should be expected of him at this point, the market is taking it as a signal that the October Fed meeting is likely a no go,” said Noah Buffam, strategist at CIBC Capital Markets.
本周早些时候，美元曾因美国消费者通胀数据高于预期而受到提振，这加剧了市场对美联储将加息的押注。沃什曾在美联储9月首次在三年内加息之前向市场传递过鹰派信号。
Earlier this week, the dollar got a boost from hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data that fueled bets that the Fed would hike rates. Warsh had sent a hawkish message to markets prior to the Fed’s move in September to raise rates for the first time in three years.
据Spectra Markets总裁布伦特·唐奈利所述，美联储信号的转变正在制造对利率路径的不确定性。
The Fed’s shifting signals are creating uncertainty over the path of rates, according to Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets.
他指出：“他们现在正疯狂地推出鸽派声音，尽管本月月度数据强劲，但10月的加息预期已被完全定价出局。”他指的是显示通胀持续且零售销售超出预期的报告。交易者对本月政策会议加息的预期已从30%降至20%。
Now, “they are wheeling out doves like mad, and October is priced out despite rip-roaring monthly data this week,” wrote Donnelly in a note, referring to reports showing persistent inflation and retail sales beating forecasts. Traders’ expectations for a rate hike at this month’s policy meeting have fallen to 20% from 30%.
此外，巴法姆表示，美元还面临着“人工智能交易相关风险上升”的压力，而这种交易在近年来一直支撑着美国的经济增长。
The dollar is also facing pressure from “building risks around the AI trade which has supported US growth in recent years,” said Buffam.