分析师对Adobe Inc.的情绪从未如此低落，随着人们日益确信，这家为创意专业人士提供软件的公司将在人工智能时代难以竞争。
Analyst sentiment toward Adobe Inc. has never been lower, amid growing conviction that the maker of software for creative professionals will struggle to compete in the artificial intelligence era.
本周，两位分析师下调了该股票评级，他们加入了日益壮大的持怀疑态度的行列，担心人工智能公司的产品将削弱对Photoshop等产品的需求，从而削减Adobe的长期增长潜力。
A pair of analysts downgraded the stock this week, with the two joining a growing chorus of skeptics who fear that offerings from AI firms will sap demand for products like Photoshop, diminishing Adobe’s long-term growth potential.
本周的首次下调来自富国银行证券，该机构周一将股票评级下调两档，由增持调整为减持，并将12个月目标价从270美元下调至225美元。这使得卖出等级评级的数量升至七项，为历史最高，较2025年中旬的零项有所增加。
The week’s first downgrade came from Wells Fargo Securities, which cut the stock by two notches on Monday, moving to underweight from overweight and lowering their 12-month price target to $225 from $270. That brought the number of sell-equivalent ratings to seven, the highest on record, up from zero in mid-2025.
“Adobe的增长轮廓现在开始出现更有意义的裂缝，”分析师迈克尔·图林写道，他指出公司上个月的第三季度业绩，他将其描述为“相当平淡”。他补充说，Adobe实现全年目标的能力在考虑到管理层最近关于推迟任何核心创意产品涨价的评论后，看来“困难”。
“More meaningful cracks are now starting to show in the Adobe growth profile,” wrote analyst Michael Turrin, pointing to the company’s third-quarter results from last month, which he described as “fairly muted.”He added that Adobe’s ability to meet its full-year targets looks “difficult given recent management commentary around deferral of any core creative price increase.”
周二，汇丰银行分析师斯蒂芬·伯西将该股票评级从买入下调至持有，并将目标价从310美元下调至267美元，称Adobe是“人工智能主导的颠覆的现实候选者”。分析师们今年至少已15次下调Adobe股票评级，包括本周的下调。因此，Adobe的推荐共识——即买入、持有和卖出评级比例的代理指标——已降至五分制中的3.16，为历史最低。标普500软件指数中公司的平均共识评级为4.65，表明看涨情绪远更强烈。
On Tuesday, HSBC analyst Stephen Bersey downgraded the stock to hold from buy and reduced his price target to $267 from $310, saying Adobe is “a realistic candidate for AI-led disruption.”Analysts have downgraded Adobe shares at least 15 times this year, including this week’s cuts. As a result, Adobe’s recommendation consensus — a proxy for the ratio of buy, hold, and sell ratings — has dropped to 3.16 out of five, an all-time low. The average consensus rating for companies in the S&P 500 software index is 4.65, indicating far more bullishness.
对AI颠覆的担忧一直是今年软件投资者的核心主题。2026年初，随着OpenAI和Anthropic等AI原生公司持续推出产品，软件行业出现抛售潮，股价应声下跌。虽然随着投资者认为某些软件形式难以被取代，行业情绪总体已有回升，但Adobe仍是一个显著例外。
Concern about AI disruption has been a central theme for software investors this year. The sector tumbled early in 2026 as a steady cadence of product offerings from AI-native companies like OpenAI and Anthropic spurred widespread selling. While sentiment toward the sector has largely rebounded as investors view some forms of software as difficult to replace, Adobe remains a notable exception.
Adobe股价今年已下跌近30%，而同期iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（一个广泛用作该行业代理的ETF）上涨了3.7%。Adobe有望连续第三年出现超过20%的跌幅，这一长期卖盘反映出市场将其视为AI颠覆的典型代表。
The stock is down nearly 30% this year, compared with a 3.7% gain for the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, a widely used proxy for the sector. Adobe is on track for a third straight year with a decline of more than 20%, a lengthy selloff that reflects how the company is viewed as a poster child for AI disruption.
投资者担心用户可能放弃Photoshop订阅，转而使用OpenAI或Anthropic等公司的工具通过提示生成图像。虽然Adobe自身也提供AI功能，但人们担忧AI竞争将压低其定价能力，拖累利润率。
Investors are concerned that users can ditch their Photoshop subscriptions to instead use tools from companies like OpenAI or Anthropic to generate images from prompts. While Adobe offers AI features of its own, the fear is that AI competition will pressure its pricing power and weigh on margins.
这一担忧正是汇丰银行下调评级的核心所在。Bersey指出，来自“Adobe的‘氛围编码’克隆版”的竞争正在加剧，他所说的“氛围编码”是指通过AI提示编写的软件。他引用媒体报道称，一家名为ArtCraft的公司提供免费的“氛围编码”产品，包括“Photoshop、Illustrator、Premiere、Lightroom、Acrobat、After Effects和InDesign”的版本。
This concern was at the heart of HSBC’s downgrade. Bersey sees competition from “vibe-coded clones of Adobe,” referring to software written through AI prompts. Free vibe-coded offerings from a company called ArtCraft include “versions of Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere, Lightroom, Acrobat, After Effects, and InDesign,” he wrote, citing media reports.
他写道，这种竞争“为Adobe制造了头条风险”，尽管他认为这些服务也可能给用户带来风险。
Such competition “creates headline risks for Adobe,” he wrote, even though he sees risks to users from such services.