这是特朗普和泽连斯基的临界点吗？两位总统之间的言语战将走向何方，谁也说不准。但如果这种情况持续下去，可能会威胁到乌克兰仍然从美国获得的关键作战支持。这一次，这种裂痕感觉是真实的。
Is This the Breaking Point for Trump and Zelensky? Where the two presidents’ war of words will end is anybody’s guess. But if it continues, it could threaten the crucial operational help that Ukraine still gets from the United States. This time, the rupture feels real.
特朗普总统长期以来对乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的厌恶从不掩饰，同时他对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京的亲近也一直公开。但泽连斯基一直设法保持某种形式的美国对俄支持，配合美国主导的毫无成果的和平谈判，并对特朗普的“强有力的领导”赞不绝口、奉承不已。如今，在被视为对特朗普总统任期公投的中期选举前夕，两人的关系似乎正濒临破裂点。这种分裂对特朗普政府构成风险，但对乌克兰而言更为关键，因为乌克兰的军队仍然从美国获得关键的作战援助。
President Trump has long made no secret of his disdain for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and his affinity with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. But Mr. Zelensky has always managed to hold on to some form of American support against Russia, going along with fruitless U.S.-led peace talks and heaping thanks and flattery on Mr. Trump for his “strong leadership.”Now, in the run-up to midterm elections seen as a referendum on Mr. Trump’s presidency, their relationship seems close to a breaking point. The split poses risks to the Trump administration but more critically to Ukraine, whose military still gets crucial operational help from the United States.
对基辅而言，打击接连不断，就在一周内就发生了一系列非常糟糕的事件。
For Kyiv, the blows came one after the next in just one very bad week.
特朗普将俄罗斯近五年前对乌克兰发动的战争归咎于柴油价格上涨，而不是能源专家所说的真正原因：特朗普对伊朗发动的战争。他暂时解除了对俄罗斯柴油销售的美国制裁，这很可能是一项降低这些价格的失败尝试。他单方面在仅有利于俄罗斯、损害乌克兰的战争中宣布了一个“能源停火”。并且他呼吁选出一位新的乌克兰总统。
Mr. Trump blamed the war launched by Russia against Ukraine almost five years ago for rising diesel prices, instead of what energy experts call the real cause: the war that Mr. Trump launched against Iran. He temporarily lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel sales in what is likely to be a failed attempt to lower those prices. He unilaterally declared an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE” in the war that only helped Russia and hurt Ukraine. And he called for a new Ukrainian president.
到周中时，乌克兰军方报告称，其使用星盾（Starshield）——即卫星互联网系统星链（Starlink）的军用版本，对乌克兰战场通信至关重要——出现了突然且无法解释的使用限制。埃隆·马斯克，这位时好时坏的特朗普好友、SpaceX首席执行官（该公司运营星链），暗示只有美国军方，最终只有特朗普才能限制星盾的使用。随后马斯克也呼吁选出一位新的乌克兰总统。
By midweek, the Ukrainian military was reporting sudden unexplained restrictions on its use of Starshield, a military version of the satellite internet system Starlink that is crucial to Ukraine’s battlefield communications. Elon Musk, the on-again, off-again good friend of Mr. Trump and the chief executive of SpaceX, which operates Starlink, suggested that only the U.S. military and ultimately Mr. Trump could limit Starshield’s usage. Mr. Musk then also called for a new Ukrainian president.
在最初保持沉默之后，情绪明显激动的泽连斯基表示，他感到被背叛，因为特朗普公开站在一名正在以十倍速度杀害乌克兰平民的俄罗斯领导人一边。违背特朗普的停火宣言，泽连斯基表示乌克兰将重新对俄罗斯的炼油厂发动袭击。当记者皮尔斯·摩根要求他澄清自己是否认为乌克兰正在“失去”美国时，泽连斯基简单回答：“是的。”
After initially holding back, a visibly angry Mr. Zelensky said he felt betrayed as Mr. Trump openly sided with a Russian leader who is killing Ukrainian civilians by the dozen. Defying Mr. Trump’s cease-fire declaration, Mr. Zelensky said Ukraine would restart its attacks on Russian oil refineries. Asked by the journalist Piers Morgan to clarify whether he believed Ukraine was “losing” the United States, Mr. Zelensky replied simply: “Yes.”
随后，特朗普告诉Newsmax：“泽连斯基不是我们应与之打交道的好人选。”
Mr. Trump then told Newsmax that “Zelensky is not a good guy for us to deal with.”
周五在比利时，泽连斯基似乎进一步加深了这种表态。当被问及他是否正在成为特朗普问题的替罪羊时，这位前喜剧演员、具备出色喜剧节奏感的泽连斯基露出侧脸的笑容，并长时间停顿。大家都笑了。随后他靠近麦克风说：“这就是我的答案。”这场言语战争将走向何方，无人能知。但如果它继续下去，分析人士认为，这将有利于俄罗斯，而对特朗普政府、乌克兰以及基辅的欧洲盟友不利。
On Friday in Belgium, Mr. Zelensky seemed to go further. When asked if he was being treated as a scapegoat for Mr. Trump’s problems, Mr. Zelensky, a former comedian with excellent comic timing, gave a sideways smile and paused at length. Everyone laughed. Then he leaned into the microphone and said: “This is my answer.”Where the war of words will end is anybody’s guess. But if it continues, it will help Russia and hurt the Trump administration, Ukraine and Kyiv’s European allies, according to analysts.
“这是一个双输的局面，”曾任欧盟驻基辅外交官、现任政治分析公司R. Politik的巴拉兹·贾拉比克说。“我认为这对特朗普不利。显然这对泽连斯基也不利。对欧洲人来说也不好。”对乌克兰而言最糟的情况是，如果特朗普及其国防部决定暂停对乌克兰军队的援助。基辅希望这一步骤在政治上对特朗普造成太大损害，因为他正因对乌克兰的处理方式而在本党内部受到一些人的批评。
“It is a lose-lose situation,” said Balazs Jarabik, a former European Union diplomat in Kyiv who now works at R. Politik, a political analysis firm. “It’s bad for Trump, I think. It’s bad for Zelensky, obviously. It’s bad for the Europeans.”The worst case for Ukraine would be if Mr. Trump and his Defense Department were to suspend aid to the Ukrainian military. Kyiv is hoping that such a step would be too politically damaging for Mr. Trump, as he faces criticism from some in his own party over his treatment of Ukraine. Kyiv relies on the Pentagon-funded Starshield internet network along the front line, as well as on military intelligence that alerts the country to incoming missile strikes and helps it with targeting for its own midrange strikes.
基辅依赖由五角大楼资助的“星盾”互联网网络，该网络覆盖前线地区，此外还依赖军事情报，以提前警告该国即将到来的导弹袭击，并协助其进行中程打击的目标定位。
Ukraine also relies on the United States for weapons that it purchases with the help of allies, such as spare F-16 parts, radiation-seeking missiles and Patriot interceptor missiles, the only weapon Ukraine can access that can knock down Russian ballistic missiles.
乌克兰还依赖美国提供其在盟友帮助下购买的武器，例如备用的F-16零件、寻射导弹和爱国者拦截导弹——这是乌克兰能够获取的唯一一种可以击落俄罗斯弹道导弹的武器。
A loss of this assistance would hurt the Ukrainian military just as it has been performing well against the Russians on the front line.
分析人士表示，失去这种援助将对乌克兰军队造成打击，正如它在前线对俄罗斯的作战表现良好一样。这也将伤害一直遭受导弹和无人机袭击的乌克兰城市，并导致更多乌克兰平民死亡。
It would also hurt Ukrainian cities that are under constant missile and drone attack and cause more Ukrainian civilians to die, analysts said. The United States used to be Ukraine’s No. 1 ally in this war.
美国曾是乌克兰在这场战争中的头号盟友。但随后特朗普上任。他表示孤立俄罗斯的时代已经结束，指责乌克兰招致入侵，并颠覆了数代美国的对外政策。随后发生了泽连斯基与特朗普在白宫的灾难性会晤，当时泽连斯基因未穿西装、对美国援助不够感激而受到斥责。
But then Mr. Trump came into office. He said the days of isolating Russia were over, blamed Ukraine for being invaded and upended generations of U.S. foreign policy. Then came a disastrous meeting between Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump at the White House, when Mr. Zelensky was berated for not wearing a suit and not being grateful enough for American help. Got a confidential news tip?
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虽然泽连斯基已经修复了这一裂痕，但美国停止向乌克兰捐赠武器，而是要求基辅及其西方盟友自行支付费用。此后，乌克兰大幅提升了自身的国防生产能力，在美方撤回支持时减轻了冲击——同时也为泽连斯基提供了更多发声空间。
While Mr. Zelensky repaired that rift, the United States stopped donating weapons to Ukraine, instead requiring Kyiv and its Western allies to pay for them. Since then, Ukraine has significantly built up its own defense production, softening the blow as the United States has pulled back — and giving Mr. Zelensky more room to speak out.
“特朗普不再向乌克兰提供援助所拥有的影响力非常有限，”曾任德国国防部官员、现为慕尼黑安全会议高级研究员的尼科·兰格说。“仍然存在一种公众印象，甚至可能特朗普本人也这么认为，那就是如果美国无法再提供帮助，乌克兰就会输掉战争。但事实并非如此。”然而，尽管欧洲国家向乌克兰提供了一些情报，但兰格先生表示，没有任何东西能取代美国提供的情报——这种情报能提前警告来自黑海舰船的巡航导弹袭击或弹道导弹攻击。
“The leverage that Trump has with not giving Ukraine things anymore is very limited,” said Nico Lange, a former German Defense Ministry official who is now a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference. “There is still a public impression, and also the impression maybe with Trump, that Ukraine will lose the war if the U.S. can’t help anymore. But this is not true.”Still, while European countries provide some intelligence to Ukraine, there’s no substitute for the U.S. intelligence that gives early warnings for cruise missile strikes from ships in the Black Sea or ballistic missile attacks, Mr. Lange said.
如果乌克兰无法提前获悉来袭的弹道导弹，也没有爱国者系统将其击落，俄罗斯将能够肆无忌惮地发动打击。
If Ukraine gets no advance warning of incoming ballistic missiles and has no Patriots to knock them down, Russia will be able to strike with impunity.
“我们将会死于无法收到弹道导弹袭击的预警，”乌克兰媒体《AIN》的军事分析员兼总编辑奥列赫·卡特科夫说。“这意味着我们无法及时躲进掩体。而且我们也没有能力自己击落这些导弹。”乌克兰议会国防委员会成员、乌克兰北约代表团副团长索洛米娅·博布罗夫斯卡表示，她担心美国将停止提供爱国者拦截导弹。由于伊朗战争导致全球该型导弹供应基本耗尽，但乌克兰仍然每月收到少量导弹。
“We will die because we won’t receive warnings about ballistic missile attacks,” said Oleh Katkov, a military analyst and the editor in chief of AIN, a Ukrainian media outlet that covers defense and technology. “That means we won’t be able to get to shelters in time. And we won’t have the means to shoot down those missiles ourselves.”Solomiia Bobrovska, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament’s defense committee and the deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation to NATO, said she worried that the United States would stop providing Patriot interceptors. The worldwide supply of the missiles has been depleted, largely because of the war in Iran, but Ukraine still receives a small number every month.
博布罗夫斯卡还表示，乌克兰及其盟友需要为未来寻找美国援助的替代方案。她补充说，无论发生什么，乌克兰都不会停止战斗。“如果你想听我说出‘和平’和‘投降’这两个词，那根本不可能，”她说。乌克兰本周初步体验到了如果美国停止援助可能带来的后果。
Ms. Bobrovska also said that Ukraine and its allies needed to find alternatives to U.S. help for the future. She added that Ukraine would not stop fighting, regardless of what happened. “If you want to hear from me the words ‘peace’ and ‘capitulation,’ it’s not an option at all,” she said. Ukraine got a glimpse this week of what could happen if the United States stopped helping.
乌克兰官员表示，乌克兰在周二和周三两波针对基辅的导弹袭击中，未收到来自伙伴的任何预警 — — 这是对美国的暗语。这些导弹在防空警报响起的同时击中了目标。
Ukrainian officials said that Ukraine received no advance notice from its partners — code language for the United States — for two waves of missile attacks against Kyiv on Tuesday and Wednesday. Those missiles hit just as air-raid alarms came on.
目前尚不清楚乌克兰为何未收到任何预警。可能是因为这些导弹是S-400型，其射程短但速度极快，这通常不留下太多预警时间。乌克兰官员表示，他们确实收到了其他弹道导弹袭击的预警。
It’s not clear why Ukraine did not get any notice. It might have been because those missiles were S-400s, which travel short distances extremely quickly, which often doesn’t allow for much warning. Ukrainian officials said they received notice of other ballistic attacks.
随后出现了星盾（Starshield）干扰事件，乌克兰士兵称其干扰了无人机发射以及其他多项行动。美国两党参议员小组已要求对此进行调查。
Then came the Starshield disruptions, which Ukrainian soldiers said interfered with drone launches and a range of other operations. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has demanded an investigation.
分析人士表示，未来几周可能会透露特朗普-泽连斯基关系接下来会如何发展。
The next couple of weeks could give a sign of what might happen next in the Trump-Zelensky relationship, analysts said.
“我们必须看到中期选举之前会发生什么，”拉姆斯穆斯全球（Rasmussen Global）高级主管哈里·内德尔库（Harry Nedelcu）说。“我们必须看看特朗普将如何处理此事。一方面，他想展示自己正在降低油价；另一方面，他正面临来自自己阵营的批评。然而，从地缘政治角度来看，当然这是一记背后捅刀。一种地缘政治的背叛。”
“We have to see what’s going to happen up to the midterms,” said Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at Rasmussen Global, a European political advisory firm. “We have to see how Trump will play this out. On one hand, he wants to show he’s bringing gas prices down. On the other, he’s facing criticism from his own ranks. Geopolitically, however, of course it’s a stab in the back. A geopolitical betrayal.”
康斯坦特·梅休（Constant Méheut）、珍娜·斯米亚莱克（Jeanna Smialek）、奥列桑德拉·米科利希恩（Oleksandra Mykolyshyn）和娜塔莉亚·诺沃索洛娃（Nataliia Novosolova）对本文有贡献。
Constant Méheut, Jeanna Smialek, Oleksandra Mykolyshyn and Nataliia Novosolova contributed reporting.
金·巴克（Kim Barker）是《纽约时报》记者，专门撰写关于乌克兰战争的深度报道。
Kim Barker is a Times reporter writing in-depth stories about the war in Ukraine.