中国和菲律宾最近因在南中国海有争议的第二托马斯浅滩搁浅的海军舰艇上撤离一名菲律宾军人的医疗撤离而互相指责。该事件引发了人们对全球重要贸易通道可能发生武装冲突的新担忧。
China and the Philippines recently traded accusations over the medical evacuation of a Philippine serviceman from a grounded naval vessel in the hotly disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The incident has sparked renewed worries about potential armed skirmishes in a global artery of trade.
但菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯小也迅速强调了重大冲突的经济维度。在十年快速经济增长之后，菲律宾正面临多重逆风导致的潜在“滞胀”。
But Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr was also quick to emphasise the economic dimensions of a major conflict. After a decade of rapid economic growth, the Philippines is facing potential “stagflation” due to multiple headwinds.
伊朗战争的失误以及横扫菲律宾基础设施项目的国内防洪腐败丑闻，已经严重打击了该国的经济。
Both the ill-conceived US war on Iran and the domestic flood-control corruption scandal, which has hobbled infrastructure projects across the Philippines, have hammered the nation’s economy.
面对创纪录的低支持率，马科斯正加倍努力吸引来自传统伙伴的数十亿美元投资。特别是，他正押注于新启动的吕宋经济走廊，该走廊得到了日本和欧洲的支持，以及美国主导的帕克斯西利卡倡议。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普预计将在下个月访问马尼拉期间签署帕克斯西利卡框架协议。
Reeling from record low approval ratings, Marcos is doubling down on attracting multibillion-dollar investments from traditional partners. In particular, he is betting on the newly launched Luzon Economic Corridor, which has Japanese and European support, and the US-led Pax Silica initiative. US President Donald Trump is expected to sign a framework agreement for Pax Silica during a visit to Manila next month.
通过将自身定位为“无中国”的关键矿物生产商，并利用其与西方国家日益深化的安全关系，菲律宾希望成为印太地区的新制造业投资中心。
By positioning itself as a “China-free” critical minerals producer, and leveraging its burgeoning security ties with Western powers, the Philippines hopes to become a new manufacturing investment hub in the Indo-Pacific.
该政府希望将该国打造成专家所说的“盟友规模”的中心，即美国及其盟友在与中国日益升温的冷战中的综合技术和工业能力。这是一项高风险的战略赌注。
The administration wants to transform the country into a centre for consolidating what experts call “allied scale”, namely the combined technological and industrial capacity of the United States and its allies in a brewing cold war with China. It’s a high-risk strategic bet.
菲律宾正酝酿的经济危机难以被夸大。根据最新官方数据，第二季度增长放缓至2.3%，而通胀率已升至7.2%。随着年同比增长率减半，核心通胀率几乎翻倍，经济学家正警告“轻度滞胀”噩梦。
It’s hard to overstate the Philippines’ brewing economic crisis. Growth slowed to 2.3 per cent in the second quarter, according to the latest official data, while inflation has risen to 7.2 per cent. With growth rates halving year on year and core inflation nearly doubling, economists are warning of a “stagflation lite” nightmare.
与之形成鲜明对比的是，地区同行如越南，虽然同样受到伊朗战争导致的能源供应中断的严重冲击，但凭借日益增长的高附加值制造业出口，第三季度实现了略低于10%的增长。
In stark contrast, regional peers such as Vietnam, while also hit hard by the Iran war’s energy disruption, has managed to post a third-quarter growth of just under 10 per cent on the back of increasingly high-value-added manufacturing exports.
即使是工业化程度较高的邻国，如台湾和韩国，同样高度依赖波斯湾的能源进口，也因全球对先进芯片需求激增而迎来增长年。
Even industrialised neighbours such as Taiwan and South Korea, also heavily reliant on energy imports from the Persian Gulf, are experiencing a boom year amid a global demand spike for advanced chips.
曾经是亚洲增长最快的经济体之一，菲律宾如今再次面临成为“亚洲病夫”的境况。难怪马科斯政府正争分夺秒地争取来自盟国的大规模投资。
Once one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, the Philippines is again facing being the “Sick Man of Asia”. No wonder the Marcos administration is scrambling for massive investments from allied nations.
毕竟，菲律宾与北京的地缘政治紧张关系日益升级，导致近年来大规模中国投资前景被彻底毁掉，菲律宾实际上已经退出了“一带一路”倡议。
After all, rising geopolitical tensions with Beijing have torpedoed prospects for large-scale Chinese investments in recent years, with the Philippines effectively pulling out of the Belt and Road Initiative.
另一方面，存在着吕宋经济走廊这一倡议，旨在将菲律宾北部工业化地区整合为全球制造业中心。
e hand, there is the Luzon Economic Corridor, an initiative to consolidate the Philippines’ industrialised northern regions into a global manufacturing hub.
为挖掘东南亚国家巨大的经济潜力，数百家日本企业正在探索投资机会，尤其是在制造业领域。欧洲方面也表达了兴趣，使得吕宋经济走廊成为一项全球投资倡议。
Eager to tap the Southeast Asian nation’s massive economic potential, hundreds of Japanese companies are exploring investments, especially in the manufacturing sector. Europeans have also expressed interest, making the Luzon Economic Corridor a global investment initiative.
“美国不是替代方案，而是其他所有人，”战略与国际研究中心的格雷格·波林说。“我们大家都在通力合作，以提供中国的有吸引力的替代方案。”菲律宾高级官员仍然持乐观态度。菲律宾驻华盛顿大使何塞·曼努埃尔·罗穆亚尔德斯表示，吕宋经济走廊“将再次成为一个典范，展示什么可以被做到，并能够在全国范围内复制”。
“The US is not the alternative, it’s everybody else,” said Greg Poling of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “All of us are working in concert to provide attractive alternatives to China’s.”Top Philippine officials remain bullish. Jose Manuel Romualdez, Philippine ambassador to Washington, has said that the Luzon Economic Corridor is “going to be the example again of what can be done and duplicated all over the country”.
然后还有更具争议性的“硅平安”计划，该计划因环境和社区迁置问题而受到菲律宾民间团体的强烈批评。菲律宾官员坚称数据中心不会成为该计划的一部分，但该协议的最终细节仍然模糊不清。
Then there is the more controversial Pax Silica, which has drawn heavy criticism from civil society groups in the Philippines over environmental and community displacement concerns. Philippine officials have insisted no data centres would be part of the initiative, but the final contours of the deal remain murky.
据报道，富士康对加入该计划表现出兴趣，作为新克拉克城规划的1,619公顷（4,000英亩）制造中心的“锚定定位者”。
Foxconn has reportedly shown interest in joining the initiative as an “anchor locator” for the planned 1,619-hectare (4,000-acre) manufacturing hub in New Clark City.
与此同时，高级安全官员强调吸引投资和提升国家经济基础的重要性，将其视为国家安全事宜。
Meanwhile, top security officials have emphasised the importance of attracting investments and enhancing the country’s economic foundations as a matter of national security.
国防部长吉尔伯特·特奥德罗表示，该国需要建立一个以国内重工业（如钢铁）为基础的“有韧性的国防产业”，近年来钢铁行业一直面临来自中国的激烈竞争。
Defence Secretary Gilbert Teodro has said the country needs to build up a “resilient defence industry” anchored in domestic heavy industries such as steel, which has faced massive competition from China in recent years.
菲律宾成为新兴区域制造中心的梦想面临诸多挑战。首先，马科斯正处于其任期的暮年，引发了对该国长期地经战略的严重担忧。
The Philippine dream of becoming a new regional manufacturing hub faces multiple challenges. To begin with, Marcos is in his twilight years of office, raising serious concerns over the country’s long-term geoeconomic strategy.
调查显示，亲北京的政治人物，如副总统萨拉·杜特尔特和参议员克里斯托弗·戈，被视为明年大选总统和副总统的热门人选。有指控称杜特尔特家族获得了来自北京关联势力的巨额财政支持。不久出现重大外交政策转折并非不可能。
Surveys show Beijing-friendly political figures such as Vice-President Sara Duterte and senator Christopher Go as favourites for president and vice-president in next year’s election. Allegations have surfaced that the Duterte family received massive financial support from Beijing-affiliated elements. A major foreign policy U-turn soon is not improbable.
此外，菲律宾缺乏一个强有力的工业战略来利用新的投资机会。马尼拉的政策制定者普遍主张“自由市场”，并监督了制造业基础的稳步削弱，以支持以劳动力出口和低端服务为驱动的经济。
Moreover, the Philippines lacks a robust industrial strategy to harness new investment opportunities. Manila’s policymakers are generally “free market” advocates and have overseen a steady erosion of the manufacturing base in favour of an economy driven by labour exports and low-end services.
然而，要吸引大规模制造业投资，菲律宾需要发挥主动的官僚体制作用，并实施长期支持战略，以创造有利于高附加值制造业的条件。面对财政紧张和腐败丑闻，菲律宾政府如何应对制造业投资长期受阻的基础设施瓶颈和高昂能源成本仍不清楚。
To attract large-scale manufacturing investments, however, the Philippines needs to harness a proactive bureaucracy and implement a long-term support strategy to create conducive conditions for high-value-added manufacturing. Faced with a fiscal crunch and corruption scandals, it’s unclear how the Philippine government plans to address the infrastructure bottlenecks and high energy costs that have been a bane of manufacturing investments.
最终，菲律宾面临来自马来西亚、越南和泰国等邻国的激烈竞争，这些国家拥有更为完善的制造业供应链，且当地企业集团已融入高附加值生产。尽管菲律宾抱负宏大，但其如何才能可信地吸引大额西方投资以振兴疲软的经济仍不清楚。
Ultimately, the Philippines faces stiff competition from neighbours such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand, which have far more robust manufacturing supply chains and have local conglomerates integrated into high-value-added production. For all its big ambitions, it remains unclear how the Philippines can credibly attract big-ticket Western investments to upgrade its flailing economy.