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印度青年抗议规模升至十年来最高,莫迪面临压力Modi under pressure as India’s youth protests rise to highest level in a decade

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尽管部署了数万名安全人员来阻止他们,印度的青年抗议者上周仍攀爬路障、高喊反政府口号,并与试图将他们拖走的警察发生冲突。

Despite tens of thousands of security personnel deployed to stop them, youth protesters in India scaled barricades last week, chanted anti-government slogans and scuffled with police officers trying to drag them away.

“革命万岁,”一名年轻男子大喊,随后警察把他塞进了一辆公交车。

“Long live the revolution,” shouted one young man before police bundled him into a bus.

独立研究机构武装冲突地点与事件数据项目(Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project)表示,由于对总理纳伦德拉·莫迪政府的不满情绪加剧,加之Z世代积极分子走上街头,今年印度的街头抗议活动可能会达到过去十年来的最高水平。

Street protests in India this year are likely to be higher than at any time in the past decade, the independent Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project has said, as dissent mounts against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and Gen Z activists pour on to the streets.

分析人士表示,青年抗议活动的增加以及对反对派支持度的上升,构成了莫迪自2014年上台以来面临的最严重危机,而30岁以下的人群占该国10亿选民的近四分之一。但他的政府依然稳定,下一次大选要到2029年才举行。

Analysts say the youth protests, and growing support for the opposition, form the worst crisis for Modi since he came to power in 2014, with people under 30 making up nearly one quarter of the country’s 1 billion voters. But his government remains stable and the next general election is not due until 2029.

“这个国家突然发出了自己的声音,”在示威活动中发挥了领导作用的反政府积极分子约根德拉·亚达夫表示。“我不会说这是莫迪政权走向终结的开始,但这绝对是走下坡路的开始。”政府和莫迪所在的印度人民党(BJP)拒绝置评。

The nation has suddenly found its voiceYogendra Yadav, an anti-government activist“The nation has suddenly found its voice,” said Yogendra Yadav, an anti-government activist who has played a leading part in the demonstrations. “I would not say this is the beginning of the end of the Modi regime, but this definitely is the beginning of a downward spiral.”The government and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) declined comment.

首都新德里和其他地方最近的抗议活动集中于一项要求:选举委员会负责人吉安内什·库马尔辞职。此前,选举委员会进行了选民名册修订,积极分子和反对党称该修订偏袒印度人民党,并帮助该党赢得了近期的几次邦选举。

The recent protests in the capital New Delhi and elsewhere were focused on demands that Election Commission chief Gyanesh Kumar resign over a voter roll revision that activists and opposition parties say favours the BJP and has helped it win several recent state elections.

执政的印度人民党、政府和选举委员会均否认这些指控。印度人民党表示,该党的胜利源于莫迪的受欢迎程度和强劲的经济增长。

The ruling BJP, the government and the Election Commission deny the accusations. The BJP says the party’s wins have come from Modi’s popularity and strong economic growth.

但这些示威活动也反映出了更深层的问题:在莫迪执政的12年里,尽管整体经济增长强劲,但他未能为数百万失业青年提供就业机会,这引发了日益高涨的愤怒。

But the demonstrations are also reflecting something larger: growing anger at Modi for failing to deliver jobs to millions of unemployed youth in his 12 years in power despite the surge in headline economic growth.

其他问题也助长了反建制情绪,其中包括关键求职和教育考试的试卷泄露事件、针对女性的高犯罪率,以及被指与莫迪关系密切的亿万富翁商人的崛起。

Other issues have also fed into the anti-establishment mood, including leaks of question papers in key examinations for jobs and education, the high number of crimes against women and the rise of billionaire businessmen alleged to have close links to Modi.

莫迪拥有强人形象,其政府此前曾严厉打击零星的异见活动,但这并没有吓倒街头上的年轻人。

Modi has a strongman image and his government has previously cracked down on pockets of dissent harshly, but that has not fazed the youngsters on the streets.

“我们心中的恐惧已经消失了,”21岁的德里大学学生阿南娅·拉图里(Ananya Raturi)说,她上周参与了首都的大规模抗议活动。

“The fear in us is gone,” said Ananya Raturi, a 21-year-old Delhi University student who was part of massive protests in the capital last week.

拉图里当时紧紧抓着警察用来关押抗议者的公交车挡风玻璃雨刷器,她事后说道:“我们不怕被警察拘留或殴打。这一代人乐在其中。”警察否认了他们在示威活动中殴打民众的指控,称对抗议者的处理符合既定程序。

Speaking after she clung to the windscreen wipers of a bus that police were using to detain protesters, Raturi said: “We don’t fear being detained or beaten up by the police. This generation enjoys it.”Police have denied allegations that they beat up people at the demonstrations, saying protesters were handled according to prescribed procedures.

这些抗议活动受到了“小强民众党”(Cockroach Janta Party,简称CJP)的推动而充满活力。这是莫迪时代以来首个在全国产生共鸣的青年领导运动,今年6月,在印度首席大法官将失业人员比作“小强”之后,该组织从网络讽刺发展成为一场全国性的运动。

The protests have been energised by the emergence of the first nationally resonant youth-led movement of the Modi era, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which grew from online satire into a nationwide campaign this June after India’s chief justice likened the unemployed to “cockroaches”.

批评人士称,印度主流媒体大多亲政府,对这些抗议活动的报道寥寥无几。但数千名手持手机的抗议者以及YouTube上的独立新闻频道放大了这场动荡,并使CJP创始人阿比吉特·迪普克(Abhijeet Dipke)和激进的左翼活动人士内哈·博拉(Neha Bora)等领袖成为了网络红人。

India’s mainstream media is mostly pro-government, critics say, and has covered the protests sparingly. But thousands of protesters armed with mobile phones as well as independent news channels on YouTube have amplified the unrest and made internet stars of leaders like CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke and firebrand left-wing activist Neha Bora.

在莫迪对权力的掌控下曾一度沉寂的反对党重现活力,国大党领袖拉胡尔·甘地(Rahul Gandhi)和数万名追随者也走上街头。

Opposition parties that were subdued under Modi’s grip on power have been re-energised, with Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi and tens of thousands of followers also on the streets.

这场动荡引发了人们将其与邻国孟加拉国和尼泊尔进行对比,近年来,这两个国家的青年领导的抗议运动推翻了政府,不过分析人士警告称,印度的政治格局和莫迪的支持率使得此类类比并不完全贴切。

The unrest has drawn comparisons with neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal, where youth-led protest movements brought down governments in recent years, although analysts caution that India’s political landscape and Modi’s popularity make such parallels imperfect.

许多年轻抗议者是在莫迪崛起掌权的过程中长大的,当时他们受到工作、机遇和更清廉治理的承诺所鼓舞。

Many of the youth protesters grew up during Modi’s rise to power, buoyed by promises of jobs, opportunity and cleaner governance.

十年后,许多人表示这些愿望仍未实现,并称这个印度教民族主义政府似乎更加专注于宗教问题以及针对少数群体(尤其是穆斯林)的分裂性政治。

A decade later, many say those aspirations remain unfulfilled and they say the Hindu nationalist government appears more focused on religious issues and divisive politics against minorities, especially Muslims.

政府此前曾表示,在截至2024年的六年里,经济创造了1.683亿个新工作岗位。莫迪曾多次否认任何偏见的指控,称他的政府为全体印度人服务。

The government has previously said the economy generated 168.3 million new jobs in the six years through 2024. Modi has repeatedly rejected allegations of any bias, saying his government works for all Indians.

加尔各答的医学生高里·塞思在2014年成为选民,也就是莫迪政府上台的那一年。

Gauri Seth, a medical student based in Kolkata, became a voter in 2014, the same year the Modi government came to power.

当任何人反对他们时,这就会被贴上叛国或煽动叛乱的标签。医学生高里·塞思这位30岁年轻人表示,莫迪政府承诺了“很多,但未能兑现”。

When anyone speaks against them, it is labelled as treason or sedition. Gauri Seth, a medical student The 30-year-old said the Modi government promised “a lot, but has failed to deliver”.

“相反,他们把重点放在宗教基础设施等事情上。针对少数群体的暴力事件时有发生。当任何人反对他们时,这就会被贴上叛国或煽动叛乱的标签。”莫迪上台时,曾承诺每年创造数百万个就业岗位。然而,尽管印度自那时起经济增长强劲,但根据政府数据,失业率仍略高于百分之五。

“Instead they focus on things like religious infrastructure. There are cases of violence against minorities. When anyone speaks against them, it is labelled as treason or sedition.”When Modi came to power, he promised the creation of millions of jobs each year. Yet, despite India’s strong economic growth since then, unemployment remains at slightly above 5 per cent, according to government data.

路透社去年的一项民意调查显示,这些数据掩盖了失业问题的严重性,尤其是年轻人当中的失业问题。数据显示,2025年,该国3.67亿名15至29岁的人口中,失业率为百分之9.9。

A Reuters poll last year said that data masks the severity of joblessness, especially among the youth. Unemployment among the 367 million people in the country aged 15-29 stood at 9.9 per cent in 2025, according to the data.

阿齐姆普雷姆吉大学发布的《2026年印度劳动力状况》报告研究发现,15至25岁大学毕业生的失业率接近百分之四十,而25至29岁的大学毕业生中大约五分之一仍然失业。

Research by Azim Premji University’s State of Working India 2026 report found unemployment among graduates aged 15-25 was nearly 40 per cent, while about one in five graduates aged 25-29 remained jobless.

今年五月,在试卷泄露后,政府宣布取消全国医学院入学考试的成绩,这引发了全国各地的动荡。该考试原本是穷人和中产阶层谋求工作的途径。

In May, unrest erupted across the country when the government invalidated examinations for national medical colleges, a pathway to jobs for the poor and the middle class, after test papers were leaked.

德里30岁的社会活动人士鲁比·辛格(Rubby Singh)表示,考试试卷一再泄露,加深了印度年轻人的一种感觉,即体制在他们苦读多年后仍剥夺了他们的机会。

Rubby Singh, a 30-year-old social activist in Delhi, said repeated examination paper leaks had deepened a sense among young Indians that the system was denying them opportunities even after years of study.

她表示:“这一代人一直在承受缺乏正规教育的苦果,这导致他们无法获得好的机会。”

“This generation has been facing the brunt of not having proper education, which leads to not being able to get good opportunities,” she said.

虽然全国大选还有近三年才会举行,但该国最大的邦北方邦将于明年年初举行选举,这可能会对莫迪的支持率构成考验。不过,分析人士对选举结果仍持谨慎态度。

While national elections are not due for almost three years, the country’s biggest state, Uttar Pradesh, goes to the polls early next year, which could provide a test of Modi’s popularity. Analysts however remain cautious about the outcome.

德里政策研究中心研究员拉胡尔·维尔马(Rahul Verma)表示,印度人民党可能不像几个月前那样强大。“但至于是否会对选举产生影响,现在下结论还为时过早。”

The BJP may not be as strong as it was a few months ago, said Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi. “But whether there are going to be electoral implications, it is too early to say.”