本周在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织年会上，英国的财政紧缩政策意外获得了赞许。尽管这令人欢迎，但在两周后迎来其首份预算案之际，该基金的支持却将财政大臣约翰·希利置于更为耀眼的聚光灯下。
Britain received unexpected praise for its fiscal restraint at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok this week. While welcome, the fund’s support puts an even brighter spotlight on Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey ahead of his debut budget in two weeks’ time.
国际货币基金组织上调了英国的经济增长预测，并注意到该国未来五年的巩固计划——其速度超过了七国集团中的任何其他同行。
The IMF upgraded UK growth forecasts and drew attention to the country’s consolidation plans — faster than any other Group-of-Seven peer — over the next five years.
该基金总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示：“英国实际上是采取行动减少债务和赤字的一个国家。从这个意义上讲，我们看到英国享受到了一些更好的增长。”希利当时身处曼谷，亲自听取了国际货币基金组织的肯定。除了格奥尔基耶娃之外，该基金首席经济学家、曾任英格兰银行利率制定者的西尔瓦娜·滕雷罗也表示，英国的赤字削减在七国集团经济体中“十分突出”。
“The UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken,” said the fund’s director general Kristalina Georgieva. “We see the UK in that sense enjoying a bit of better growth.”Healey was in Bangkok to receive the IMF’s approval first hand. As well as Georgieva, the fund’s chief economist Silvana Tenreyro, a former Bank of England rate-setter, also said the UK’s deficit reduction “stands out” among G7 economies.
这些好听的话在英国国内受到了关注——包括在牛津大学与诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼共同出席的一场活动上，前财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯从观众席中起立，在为自己的政绩辩护时引用了国际货币基金组织的观察结果。里夫斯的插话逗乐了在场的学者，但关于英国经济地位的严肃问题现在落在了她的继任者肩上。
The kind words were noticed back in Britain — including at an event with Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman in Oxford, where former chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves rose from the audience and cited the IMF’s observations while speaking up for her record. Reeves’ intervention amused the learned gathering, but the serious question of Britain’s economic standing now rests with her successor.
安本集团首席执行官杰森·温莎在谈到希利的预算案时表示：“让我们看看两周后会发生什么。我们希望英国被视为一个稳定、高质量且治理良好的投资场所。改善这一点将使我们的公司获得更多投资。我们需要一份经过深思熟虑、不会孤立企业且有利于增长的预算。”10月28日，希利有机会发表预算案，但他同时面临着来自工党政客的压力，他们希望增加政府支出，而首相安迪·伯恩姆则决心减轻数百万选民的生活成本。里夫斯在2024年和2025年的预算案已经增税660亿英镑。
“Let’s see what happens in two weeks,” said Jason Windsor, chief executive of Aberdeen Group, in reference to Healey’s budget. “We want the UK to be seen as a stable, quality, well-governed place to invest. Improving that will allow more investment in our companies. We need a measured budget that doesn’t isolate business and is good for growth.”On Oct. 28, Healey has the chance to deliver yet faces pressure from Labour politicians who want higher government spending, while Prime Minister Andy Burnham is determined to ease the cost of living for millions of voters. Reeves’ budgets in 2024 and 2025 have already raised taxes by £66 billion.
由于需要增加收入，希利已提交了一项提高银行附加费的计划。据彭博行业研究称，这笔额外税收每年可筹集30亿英镑。这一消息导致英国银行股价下跌了约3%，并打击了国际货币基金组织和国际金融协会会议上金融家们的希望。几位人士此前已经警告称，对银行或资本利得（另一个潜在目标）征税并不是应该发出的正确信号。
With higher revenues needed, Healey has submitted plans for an increase in the surcharge on banks. The extra tax could raise £3 billion a year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The news knocked around 3% off UK bank share prices and dealt a blow to the hopes of financiers at the IMF and Institute of International Finance meetings. Several had already warned that taxes on banks or capital gains, another potential target, were not the right signal to be sending.
国际货币基金组织欧洲部副主任黑尔格·贝格尔呼应了这些观点。周五，他敦促希利削减支出，而不是对银行征税。贝格尔表示，对英国而言，税收“从历史来看是一个很高的数字”，更多的增税将“产出较低”。他告诉记者：“养老金和福利改革才是我们应把重点放在上面的地方，而不是你提到的税收。”
Those opinions were reflected by Helge Berger, the deputy director of the IMF’s European department. On Friday, he urged Healey to cut spending instead of taxing banks. Taxes are “historically for Britain, a high number” and more tax rises will be “less productive,” Berger said. Pension and welfare reform were “where we would put the emphasis rather than on the tax that you mentioned,” he told reporters.
财政大臣在预算案中面临的挑战将是，在不损害增长或投资的情况下，落实国际货币基金组织所要求的财政纪律。
The chancellor’s challenge at the budget will be to deliver the fiscal discipline the IMF is demanding without damaging growth or investment.
这并不容易。据估计，希利的主要财政规则（规定日常开支必须在2029-30年度前由税收覆盖）的缓冲空间已从3月的240亿英镑缩水至100亿至200亿英镑。他将不得不增税或设法节省开支来填补这一缺口。
It won’t be easy. The cushion against Healey’s main fiscal rule — which says day-to-day spending must be covered by tax in 2029-30 — is estimated to have shrunk to £10-20 billion from £24 billion in March. He will have to raise tax or find savings to fill the hole.
他在曼谷对记者表示，各部门将需要“管理好他们现有的东西”。尽管如此，如果财政大臣能够出台一份规模不大、目标明确的预算案，借贷成本降低将带来巨大的潜在回报。在七国集团中，英国为其基准债务支付的利率最高，尽管从杰里米·亨特开始的历任财政大臣做出了努力，但这仍然是2022年莉兹·特拉斯危机留下的后遗症。
Speaking to reporters in Bangkok, he said departments will need to “manage what they’ve got.”Still, if the chancellor can deliver a small, well-targeted budget, a big potential reward awaits in lower borrowing costs. Britain pays the highest rates on its benchmark debt in the G7, a hangover that still lingers from the Liz Truss crisis of 2022 despite the efforts of subsequent chancellors starting with Jeremy Hunt.
英国预算责任办公室估计，英国每年的债务利息支出为1100亿英镑，并将在本十年末增加到1400亿英镑。这笔开支的规模意味着，即使是适度的节约也会产生影响。国家经济和社会研究院智库认为，赤字每有一个百分点的可信改善，就会使10年期金边债券收益率下降10到15个基点，并每年节省30亿至45亿英镑。
Britain’s annual debt interest spending is £110 billion and rising to £140 billion by the end of the decade, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates. The size of the bill means that even modest savings would make a difference. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank reckons every percentage point of credible improvement in the deficit lowers 10-year gilt yields by 10–15 basis points and saves £3-4.5 billion a year.
国际货币基金组织敦促希利“保持航向”，并确保借贷在预算责任办公室预测的每一年都在下降——而不仅仅是在远期目标上。在曼谷被问及他是否会遵循这一建议时，这位财政大臣拒绝置评。
The IMF urged Healey to “stay the course” and make sure borrowing falls in every year of the OBR forecast — not just at the horizon. Asked in Bangkok if he would follow the recommendation, the chancellor refused to say.