
民族主义政党在欧洲各地的选举中屡获胜利,并在民意调查中领先。他们成功的一个秘诀:与特朗普及其MAGA盟友保持距离。
Nationalist parties are notching election victories and leading in the polls across Europe. One recipe for their success: keeping their distance from Trump and his MAGA allies.
德国选择党(AfD)在两次最近的地区选举中排名第一,该党领导人已减少与MAGA人物的公开互动,承认与美国的利益分歧,并将信息重点放在国内议题上。
Leaders of Alternative for Germany, or AfD, which finished first in two recent regional elections, have scaled back their public interactions with MAGA figures, acknowledged differences of interest with the U.S. and focused their message on domestic issues.
在法国,国民联盟领袖玛丽娜·勒庞在明年大选前的民意调查中排名第一,她在将伊朗战争称为战略失误后,已将特朗普及其盟友排除在她的竞选之外。
In France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is polling in first ahead of next year’s election, has kept Trump and his allies out of her campaign after calling the Iran war a strategic mistake.
在萨克森-安哈尔特州,AfD首次有望领导州政府,该党的竞选主题是驱逐移民并削减对具有“反爱国目标”博物馆的资助。这些政策看似直接出自MAGA的行动手册,但在竞选期间,特朗普和美国基本缺席。
In Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD is now set to lead a state government for the first time, the party campaigned on deporting migrants and cutting funding to museums with “anti-patriotic goals.”The policies could have come straight out of MAGA’s playbook, yet Trump and the U.S. were largely absent during the campaign.
“我记不得他们被提及过一次,”AfD政治家莱夫-埃里克·霍尔姆说,他在东部州梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚的一次地区选举中排名第一,指的是他自己的竞选活动,该活动在萨克森-安哈尔特州投票结束两周后结束。
“I can’t remember them being mentioned once,” said AfD politician Leif-Erik Holm, who finished first in a regional election in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, of his own campaign, which ended two weeks after the Saxony-Anhalt vote.
近年来竞选中美国盟友的缺席,与特朗普政府早期形成鲜明对比——当时MAGA和欧洲民族主义者曾展现统一阵线。
The absence of the American allies in recent campaigns marked a contrast from the early days of the Trump administration when MAGA and European nationalists showed a united front.
2025年1月,德国全国大选前夕,亿万富翁、特朗普盟友埃隆·马斯克通过视频连线参加AfD集会,敦促德国人摆脱对国家过去的内疚感,其言论被广泛视为在暗指大屠杀。次月在慕尼黑,副总统JD·万斯批评欧洲领导人努力将极右翼排除在权力之外。就在此时,勒庞表示,欧洲民族主义者是唯一能够说出特朗普政治语言的人。
In January 2025, ahead of a general election in Germany, billionaire and Trump ally Elon Musk joined an AfD rally by video link, urging Germans to shed their guilt about the country’s past, in remarks widely viewed as referencing the Holocaust. The next month in Munich, Vice President JD Vance blasted European leaders for their efforts to keep the far right out of power. Around that time, Le Pen said European nationalists were the only ones able to speak Trump’s political language.
支持欧洲反建制右翼成为美国政府的官方目标。国务院表示将向推动其所描述的欧洲主权和其他保守价值观的组织提供资助。去年年底,一份更新的美国国家安全战略称美国支持“爱国的欧洲政党”,并将在欧洲各国培养“对欧洲当前发展轨迹的抵制”。然而今年,特朗普在民调中的支持率下降,随之而来的是对美国的正面看法也在减少。
Backing Europe’s antiestablishment right became an official goal of the U.S. government. The State Department said it would provide grants to organizations promoting what it described as European sovereignty and other conservative values. Late last year, an updated U.S. national-security strategy said the U.S. supported “patriotic European parties” and would cultivate “resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.”This year, however, Trump’s popularity has slipped in polls and with it positive views of the U.S. An increasing number of countries view China more favorably than the U.S., and Xi Jinping as a more credible leader in managing world affairs, according to a Pew Research Center report in mid-July based on a 36-country survey.
根据皮尤研究中心7月中旬基于36个国家调查发布的一份报告,越来越多的国家对中国的看法更为积极,而对美国的看法则更为消极,并且认为习近平在管理世界事务方面更具可信度。民调显示,许多欧洲右翼人士对特朗普持不利看法。
Polls show many right-wing Europeans share unfavorable views of Trump.
“很多人说特朗普傲慢、危险、资历不足。你可以看到,在他第二个任期里,人们在第一个任期里不喜欢的事情正在加剧,”皮尤研究中心全球态度研究主任理查德·怀克说。“这可能会促使各种政治领袖不愿接受他。”白宫表示,特朗普已经恢复了美国的实力并加强了联盟。“总统永远不会接受西方的有管理的衰落,并将继续毫不道歉地在国内外推进我们的利益,”白宫说。
“A lot of people say Trump is arrogant, dangerous, not well-qualified. You see an intensification in his second term of things people didn’t like in the first term,” said Richard Wike, Pew’s director of global attitudes research. “That may create incentives for all sorts of political leaders not to embrace him.”The White House said Trump has restored U.S. power and strengthened alliances. “The president will never settle for the West’s managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad,” the White House said.
今年早些时候,许多欧洲民族主义领导人公开因伊朗战争问题与特朗普决裂。“看来他们在没有太多概念的情况下发动了这场运动。这有点像一场灾难,”德国选择党(AfD)联合领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔说。
Earlier in the year, many European nationalist leaders broke publicly with Trump over the Iran war. “It looks like they launched this campaign without much of a concept. It’s a bit of a disaster,” said AfD co-leader Alice Weidel.
在随后的竞选活动中,欧洲人大多是在淡化,而不是积极批评特朗普。
In the campaigns that have followed, Europeans have mostly been de-emphasizing, rather than actively criticizing, Trump.

尽管如此,一些人仍认为早期的美国支持为挑战建制的政党赢得了合法性。“这帮助我们成熟起来,并说服了一些仍持怀疑态度的人给我们一个机会,”霍姆谈到AfD时说。
Still, some credit early U.S. support for lending legitimacy to parties that are challenging the establishment. “It helped us mature and convinced some people who were still skeptical to give us a chance,” Holm said of the AfD.
他说道:“有句话说,互动不再是那种外在的形式了。”他补充道:“当然,接触仍然存在且很重要,但全球形势现在变得更加艰难,一些人可能对特朗普政府持更多怀疑态度。”特朗普在关税、格陵兰岛以及乌克兰战争等一系列议题上的立场,常常与欧洲利益相冲突,导致该地区的民族主义者难以支持他的政策。伊朗战争推高了全球能源价格,进一步加深了这种分歧。
“Having said that, the interaction is no longer that outwardly,” he added. “The contacts of course still exist and are important, but the global situation has now become more difficult and some people may be more skeptical with regard to the Trump administration.”Trump’s positions on a range of issues, including tariffs, Greenland and the war in Ukraine, often clashed with European interests, making it difficult for nationalists in the region to support his policies. The war in Iran, which drove up global energy prices, only deepened the divide.
四月份,特朗普在欧洲最亲密的盟友之一、匈牙利总理维克托·奥尔班,在特朗普和万斯在其竞选最后阶段的支持下,仍然输掉了连任竞选。
In April, one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, lost his re-election bid, despite support from Trump and Vance in the final stretch of his campaign.
还有其他迹象表明,美国保守主义在欧洲并未扎根。七月份在伦敦,尝试在英国本土启动首个英国版的美国CPAC会议以失败告终,许多会议现场座位空荡,缺少MAGA纪念品,与会者如此透露。曾主持该会议的前英国首相利兹·特拉斯,此前曾呼吁在英国和欧洲掀起特朗普式的“革命”。
There are other signs American conservatism isn’t taking hold in Europe. In July in London, efforts to launch the first U.K. version of the American CPAC conference on British soil fell flat, with rows of empty seats at many sessions and an absence of MAGA paraphernalia, according to attendees. Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss, who presided over the conference, had earlier called for a Trump-style “revolution” in Britain and Europe.
保守政治行动会议(CPAC)是美国右翼自20世纪70年代以来经常举行的热闹聚会,但一些观察者表示,它并未很好地融入英国政治较为保守的环境。
An often-raucous gathering of the American right dating to the 1970s, the Conservative Political Action Conference didn’t translate well into the more buttoned-up world of British politics, some observers said.
“英国保守主义、英国爱国主义,以及如果你愿意这样称呼的话,英国民粹主义,都有其自身的特色,”大英政治行动委员会(Great British PAC)的首席执行官克莱尔·布利凡特说道,该委员会是她创立的、参照美国政治行动委员会模式建立的组织。尽管如此,布利凡特表示,即使特朗普目前不受欢迎,他的许多思想仍将长期存在。
“British conservatism, British patriotism, and British populism, if you want to call it that, have their own character,” said Claire Bullivant, chief executive of the Great British PAC, a political-action committee she founded that is modeled after American PACs. Nonetheless, many of Trump’s ideas are here to stay, even if he is out of favor, Bullivant said.

CPAC的美国主席马特·施拉普称伦敦活动取得成功。“我们期待在英国乃至全球范围内发展CPAC运动,”他说。乔治·温伯格,这位驻柏林的海外共和党人负责人,也是寻求与MAGA人物建立联系的AfD官员的关键桥梁,表示MAGA与欧洲民族主义者之间的联系并未断裂。他们出于政治原因,一直在暗中保持联系,他说。
CPAC’s U.S. chairman, Matt Schlapp, called the London event a success. “We look forward to growing the CPAC movement in Great Britain and around the world,” he said in an George Weinberg, the Berlin-based head of Republicans Overseas and a key go-between for AfD officials seeking an introduction to MAGA figures, said the ties between MAGA and Europe’s nationalists hadn’t been severed. They were continuing out of sight for political reasons, he said.
“他们仍在打电话、拜访、给我带酒瓶,但现在更多是在暗中进行,”温伯格说。“他们是政客,你知道的,他们想赢得选举。”在AfD在萨克森-安哈尔特州取得胜利后,特朗普在社交媒体上向该党表示祝贺。其他共和党人和MAGA人物,包括马斯克、迈克·李、理查德·格雷内尔和安娜·保罗伊娜·卢纳,也纷纷效仿。
“They are still calling, visiting, bringing me bottles of wine, but now it’s more under the radar,” said Weinberg. “They are politicians, you know, they want to win elections.”After the AfD’s triumph in Saxony-Anhalt, Trump congratulated the party in a social media message. Other Republicans and MAGA figures, including Musk, Mike Lee, Richard Grenell and Anna Paulina Luna, followed suit.
特朗普对反对派的支持信息引发了柏林政府的愤怒反应,联邦总理弗里德里希·默茨取消了与美国总统的计划通话。与此同时,AfD基本上没有对此表示承认。
Trump’s message of support for the opposition drew an angry reaction from the government in Berlin, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz canceling a planned call with the U.S. president. The praise, meanwhile, went largely unacknowledged by the AfD.
“我们一些人对MAGA的这种无限热情已经不复存在了,”柏林的AfD资深议员彼得·费尔斯尔说。“我想说我们已经成熟了。我们不必在所有问题上都与美国保持一致。我们有自己的立场。”请将来信发送至jenny.strasburg@wsj.com(珍妮·斯特拉斯堡)和bertrand.benoit@wsj.com(伯特兰·伯努瓦)。
“This unlimited enthusiasm for MAGA among some of us, that is gone,” said Peter Felser, a senior AfD lawmaker in Berlin. “I would say we’ve grown up. We don’t have to agree [with the U.S.] on everything. We have our own positions.”Write to Jenny Strasburg at jenny.strasburg@wsj.com and Bertrand Benoit at bertrand.benoit@wsj.com