黑人选民可能决定美国民主社会主义者（DSA）能否在2026年选举中继续扩大突破。
Black voters may determine whether Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) can build on breakthroughs in the 2026 elections.
为什么重要：今年的初选表明，DSA的道路在于年长的黑人选民，他们在民主党初选中拥有巨大影响力 — — 尤其是在南部 — — 但接受起义候选人的速度较慢。
Why it matters: This year's primaries showed that DSA's path runs through older Black voters who wield enormous influence in Democratic primaries — particularly in the South — but have been slower to embrace insurgent candidates.
数据：黑人民主党人更倾向于喜欢而非厌恶自称为民主社会主义者的领导人，但近三分之二的人对他们持中立态度。
By the numbers: Black Democrats are more likely to like than dislike leaders who identify as democratic socialists, but nearly two-thirds remain neutral toward them.
- 皮尤研究中心的调查显示，21%的黑人民主党人和倾向民主党的独立人士表示喜欢此类领导人，而11%表示厌恶。另有65%的人持中立态度。
• 21% of Black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents told Pew Research Center they like such leaders, compared with 11% who dislike them. Another 65% were neutral.
- 在黑人民主党人和倾向民主党的独立人士中，18至49岁人群中有23%喜欢自称为民主社会主义者的领导人，而50岁及以上人群中有20%持此观点。
• Among Black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 23% of those ages 18–49 like leaders who identify as democratic socialists, compared with 20% of those 50 and older. State of play:
局势：安吉·尼克松在佛罗里达州民主党美国参议员初选中爆冷获胜，使这位黑人州议员成为首位赢得主要政党全州提名的DSA成员。
Angie Nixon's upset win in Florida's Democratic U.S. Senate primary made the Black state representative the first DSA member to win a major-party statewide nomination.
- 她的政治主张融合了劳工组织和民权抗议：作为前工会组织者，她曾通过静坐和使用扩音器参与投票权斗争，并在佛罗里达州学校图书禁令期间开设书店，举办黑人历史工作坊并组织社群。
• Her politics blend labor organizing and civil-rights protest: The former union organizer fought voting-rights battles with sit-ins and a bullhorn and opened a bookstore amid Florida's school book bans, hosting Black-history workshops and organizing groups.
- Axios对选举结果的分析发现，她在年轻且黑人人口较多的选区中的得票率上升。
• Her vote share rose in precincts with younger and larger Black populations, an Axios analysis of election results found.
多纳万·麦金尼在底特律的胜利也表明，获得DSA背书的候选人可以在黑人政治力量中心实现突破。
Donavan McKinney's Detroit victory also showed a DSA-backed candidate can break through in a center of Black political power.
- 该DSA背书的州议员在密歇根州第13选区以51.9%对48.1%击败了众议员什里·塔纳德尔，将深厚的底特律根基与劳工和地方支持的立法记录相结合。
• The DSA-endorsed state representative defeated Rep. Shri Thanedar 51.9%-48.1% in Michigan's 13th District, pairing deep Detroit roots and a legislative record with labor and local support.
但：由“值得争取的斗争”委托的Redbox Research七月民调显示，前众议员科里·布什（D-密苏里州）在35岁以下选民中以52%对20%领先于众议员韦斯利·贝尔（D-密苏里州），在35至49岁选民中以46%对36%领先。
Yes, but: A July Redbox Research poll for A Fight Worth Having found former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) leading Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) 52%–20% among voters under 35 and 46%–36% among those 35–49.
- 但在民意调查中，只有19%的黑人可能参与初选的选民年龄在50岁以下。
• But only 19% of the Black likely-primary electorate in the poll was under 50.
- 贝尔最终以59%对37%击败布什。
• Bell ultimately defeated Bush 59%-37%.
放大视角：全国范围内，30岁以下的民主党倾向成年人中有39%喜欢民主社会主义领袖，而50岁及以上的这一比例为26%。
Zoom out: Nationally, 39% of Democratic-aligned adults under 30 like democratic socialist leaders, compared with 26% of those 50 and older.
- 2016年，NBC对25个州的退出民意调查进行分析发现，在30岁以下的黑人选民中，伯尼·桑德斯以52%对47%击败希拉里·克林顿。
• In 2016, an NBC analysis of 25 state exit polls found Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton 52%-47% among Black voters under 30.
- 根据Edison的退出民意调查，在南卡罗来纳州2020年的初选中，黑人选民占选民总数的56%，而45岁以上的黑人选民中有69%支持乔·拜登。
• In South Carolina's 2020 primary, Black voters made up 56% of the electorate, and 69% of Black voters over 45 backed Joe Biden, according to Edison exit polling.
读解内情：新美国的西奥多·约翰逊告诉Axios，年长的黑人选民在冒险支持候选人之前，往往会设置一个“可行性门槛”。
Between the lines: New America's Theodore Johnson tells Axios older Black voters often impose a "viability hurdle" before taking a chance on candidates.
- 约翰逊表示，年轻的黑人选民可以成为起义联盟的“核心”，但若没有更广泛的支持，则是“不足”的。
• Johnson said younger Black voters can be "central" to an insurgent coalition but "insufficient" without broader support. What they're saying:
他们说：国家黑人赋能行动基金的达里乌斯·琼斯警告不要将对 establishment 民主党人的不满解读为转向社会主义。
Darius Jones of the National Black Empowerment Action Fund warns against reading frustration with establishment Democrats as socialist conversion.
- 他表示，年轻的黑人选民“对结果的进展速度日益不满”，但这“绝不是以任何方式全面认可DSA”。
• Younger Black voters are "increasingly impatient with the pace of results," he said, but that is "not a wholesale endorsement of the DSA in any way."
- 霍华德大学政治学副教授马库斯·博德 Jr. 表示，DSA 在将阶级政治与种族议题联系起来方面存在困难，这“肯定是一个障碍”。
• Marcus Board Jr., a political science associate professor at Howard University, said DSA's difficulty connecting class politics to race is "definitely a hurdle."
另一方观点： DSA 表示，它致力于通过围绕黑人工作者、托儿服务、住房和粮食安全进行组织，将成员发展成一个更加多元化、多种族、多代际的运动。
The other side: DSA says it is "committed to growing our membership into a more diverse, multiracial, multigenerational movement" by organizing around Black workers, child care, housing and food security.