在2024年总统大选前夕，唐纳德·特朗普一直对能源成本讳莫如深。
In the run-up to his 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump couldn’t keep quiet about the cost of energy.
他指责乔·拜登总统的环境政策，同时承诺将汽油价格降至每加仑2美元以下。他说，这将预示着国内燃油成本低廉的经济黄金时代，以及美国在海外的“能源主导地位”。
He blamed President Joe Biden’s environmental policies while vowing to slash gasoline prices to below $2 a gallon. That would herald an economic golden age of low fuel costs at home and US “energy dominance” overseas, he said.
如今快进到现在和即将到来的中期选举，能源再次成为焦点。但这一次，特朗普处于守势。
Fast forward to the present and the upcoming midterm elections, and energy is once again in the spotlight. But this time it’s Trump who’s on the defensive.
特朗普第二个任期初期，汽油价格确实有所回落。但今年随着他与以色列在二月份共同发动的伊朗战争扰乱全球燃料供应、导致库存紧张，油价又出现上涨。
Gasoline prices did moderate early in Trump’s second term. But they’ve surged this year as the Iran war, which he launched alongside Israel in February, disrupted global fuel supplies and left stockpiles stretched thin.
这使特朗普正站在一个尴尬里程碑的边缘：目前，他第二个任期内的平均汽油价格仅相差几天就将超过拜登时期的平均水平。这凸显了能源——这位总统一直将其置于议程中心——如何成为他最大的政治负担之一。
That’s put Trump on the verge of an embarrassing milestone: Right now, the average price of gasoline during his second term is just days away from surpassing the average under Biden. It’s a glaring example of how energy, which the president has put at the center of his agenda, has turned into one of his biggest political liabilities.
特朗普再次上任两年后，汽油价格上涨了近40%，超过每加仑4美元，柴油成本上涨了74%，全国范围内的电价上涨了约15%。这与选民所期待的缓解相去甚远，特朗普第二任期内的平均汽油成本可能会在11月3日大选前超过拜登时期的3.47美元平均价。（拜登仍然保持着全国单日最高汽油价的纪录——2022年6月每加仑5.02美元。）
Two years after Trump took office again, gasoline prices are up almost 40% to more than $4 a gallon, diesel costs 74% more and electricity prices have increased about 15% nationwide. Far from the relief voters had sought, the average cost of gasoline under Trump’s second term will likely overtake the $3.47 average under Biden by the Nov. 3 election. (Biden still holds the record for the single-highest nationwide gasoline price of $5.02 a gallon in June 2022.)“People were hoping to vote for something that would lead to lower prices, but that change has not materialized,” said Karen Clay, a professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
“人们希望投票支持能够带来更低价格的东西，但这种变化并未实现，”卡内基梅隆大学经济学和公共政策教授凯伦·克莱说。“看来价格上涨，至少部分原因是由于美国政府的行为。”特朗普与伊朗的战争及其未能结束冲突的尝试，使选民很容易将高能源价格归咎于他的政党。此外，随着数据中心发展引发对电费上涨的担忧，总统对人工智能的支持也给共和党人带来了麻烦，他们面临在中期选举中失去众议院和参议院控制权的风险。
“It looks like prices have gone up, at least in part, because of the activities of the US government.”Trump’s war with Iran and his failed attempts to end the conflict have made it easy for voters to pin the blame for high energy prices on his party. And as data-center development stokes concern about rising power bills, the president’s support for artificial intelligence is also creating headaches for Republicans, who risk losing control of the House and Senate in the midterms.
“总统曾说‘假装我在选票上’，看来选民在能源问题上可能真的会这样做，”华盛顿咨询公司ClearView Energy Partners的董事总经理凯文·布克说。
“The president has said ‘Pretend I’m on the ballot,’ and it looks like voters might when it comes to energy,” said Kevin Book, managing director of Washington consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners.
根据白宫官员的说法，特朗普政府已采取措施减轻伊朗战争导致的燃料供应中断的影响，包括临时豁免，允许全国范围内销售掺有15%乙醇的汽油。政府还豁免了《琼斯法案》——一项要求在美国港口之间运输的货物必须由美国制造、拥有和船员操作的法律。
The Trump administration has taken steps to reduce the impact of fuel supply disruptions from the Iran war, including a temporary waiver to allow nationwide sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, according to a White House official. The administration also issued a waiver of the Jones Act, a law that requires goods shipped between American ports to be built, owned and crewed by Americans.
“特朗普总统仍然致力于提升美国的能源竞争力、降低成本，并将更多资金返还给辛勤工作的美国家庭，”白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯表示。“总统希望看到汽油价格下降，并继续采取历史性措施来缓解因霍尔木兹海峡石油运输量恢复到冲突前的水平而带来的暂时性困扰。”然而，燃油成本对选民的影响显而易见：本月皮尤研究中心的一项调查显示，约74%的受访者对能源价格表示“非常担忧”，这一比例超过了他们对医疗保健、住房及就业市场的担忧。而在伊朗冲突爆发前，这一比例仅为43%。
“President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families,” said Taylor Rogers, a White House spokesperson. “The President wants to see prices at the pump fall and continues to take historic measures to alleviate temporary disruptions as oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz approaches pre-conflict levels.”But in a sign of how much fuel costs are weighing on voters’ minds, some 74% of respondents to a Pew Research Center survey this month said they were “very concerned” about the price of energy, exceeding worries about healthcare, housing and the job market. The same figure was only 43% before the conflict with Iran began.
高昂的能源成本正威胁着那些原本属于共和党优势地区的州，使其成为选举中的“摇摆州”。据无党派选举预测机构库克政治报告（Cook Political Report）称，堪萨斯州、爱荷华州、俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州和阿拉斯加州这些在2024年大选中特朗普以较大优势获胜的州，现在在参议院选举中已变得难以预测（即胜负难以预料）。梅利乌斯研究公司（Melius Research LLC）的董事总经理詹姆斯·韦斯特（James West）指出，除德克萨斯州外，这些州的家庭在能源上的支出均超过了美国平均水平。
High energy costs threaten to turn solidly red areas of the US into swing states. Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska, which Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, are now considered toss-ups for Senate races by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster. Households in each of these states, with the exception of Texas, spend more of their income on energy than the US average, according to James West, a managing director at Melius Research LLC.
“人们普遍认为，正是伊朗冲突导致了这一局面，”他在接受采访时说，“即使冲突结束后，油价仍会维持在高位。”在这些关键州竞选公职的共和党人面临着巨大压力，他们必须证明自己有计划解决选民对高能源成本的担忧。
“It’s perceived that the Iran conflict is what’s causing this,” he said in an interview. “Oil prices, even post conflict, will remain elevated.”Republicans running for office in these battleground states are under pressure to show that they have plans to address voter concerns about costly energy.
“爱荷华州的民众正承受着巨大压力，他们不应为伊朗战争买单，无论是通过支付更高的汽油费用，还是在其他生活开支上，”该州共和党参议院候选人阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）上个月呼吁暂停征收汽油税时说道。
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” Ashley Hinson, the state’s Republican candidate for Senate, said last month as she appealed for the suspension of gasoline taxes.
她的对手、民主党人乔什·图雷克表示，不断上涨的成本是这场竞选的“首要问题”，并指责辛森支持特朗普。他在上个月的一次竞选活动中表示：“她一直投票支持继续这场伊朗战争，导致燃油价格、肥料价格和柴油价格达到历史最高水平。”
Her opponent, Democrat Josh Turek, said rising costs are the “number one issue” in the race, blaming Hinson for supporting Trump. “She has voted in favor of continuing this war in Iran that has led to fuel prices, fertilizer prices and diesel prices to be at an all-time high,” he said at a campaign event last month.
堪萨斯州的共和党参议员候选人罗杰·马歇尔在六月接受WABC广播电台采访时称，汽油价格“是这次选举的绝对晴雨表”。自那以后，价格已上涨了10%。
Roger Marshall, the Republican Senate candidate in Kansas, called the cost of gasoline “absolutely the barometer for this election” in an interview on WABC radio in June. Prices have increased 10% since then.
得克萨斯州参议员候选人、共和党人肯·帕克斯顿告诉捐款人和游说者，燃油成本是他竞选的主要阻力，Axios报道。他在新闻媒体获得的一段录音中表示：“人们正感受到压力。”他说：“这是战争，是油价，是柴油。”由于燃油价格对供应链中其他商品的连锁影响，顽固高企的燃油价格对经济的危害大于鸡蛋或汽车等离散商品。这些价格正被纳入通胀预期，推高债券收益率，并促使美联储加息以试图抑制消费者需求。
And Ken Paxton, a Republican running for Senate in Texas, told donors and lobbyists that fuel costs were a major drag on his campaign, Axios reported. “People are feeling the pinch,” he said in a recording obtained by the news outlet. “It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel.”Stubbornly high fuel prices are worse for the economy than discreet items like eggs or cars because of their ripple effect on other goods throughout the supply chain. They are being baked into inflation expectations, lifting bond yields and prompting the Federal Reserve to raise rates to try to cool consumer demand.
因此，平均30年期抵押贷款利率已从伊朗战争前略高于6%飙升至7.5%，逆转了自2023年以来的下降趋势。这使得住房所有权——美国梦的核心支柱——在医疗费用、机票和杂货成本上升的时期变得更加困难。目前年通胀率为3.7%，而伊朗战争前为2.4%。
As a result, the average 30-year mortgage rate has surged to 7.5% from just over 6% before the war with Iran, reversing a downward trajectory since 2023. This makes home ownership, a central pillar of the American dream, more difficult at a time when the cost of healthcare, airline tickets and groceries is rising. Annual inflation is 3.7%, compared with 2.4% before the war.
面对选民愤怒的升级，特朗普在最近几周宣布了一系列措施，以控制能源价格。
Facing mounting voter anger, Trump has announced a flurry of measures to keep a lid on energy prices in recent weeks.
特朗普政府允许更广泛地使用免税柴油，施压七国集团盟友释放该燃料的储备，并与弗拉基米尔·普京达成协议以获取更多供应。它还承诺用纳税人资金扩建得克萨斯州的一座炼油厂，为电气基础设施增长提供融资，并支持《用户保护法案》以帮助保护消费者免受大型数据中心相关电力成本的影响。
The administration allowed wider use of tax-exempt diesel, pressured G7 allies to release stockpiles of the fuel and struck a deal with Vladimir Putin for more supplies. It also pledged to expand a refinery in Texas with taxpayer funds, finance electrical infrastructure growth and endorsed the Ratepayer Protection Act to help shield consumers from power costs associated with large data centers.
八月下旬，特朗普政府宣布了一项重磅协议，计划委托多数控制权掌控委内瑞拉大量石油财富，这是总统为在美国西半球建立主导地位所采取的最新举措。但该协议的成功取决于那些老化、退化或开采成本高昂的油田。
In late August, the Trump administration announced a blockbuster deal to take majority control over a huge amount of Venezuela’s oil wealth, the latest move by the president to establish US dominance over the Western Hemisphere. But the success of the agreement is riding on fields that are aging, degraded or expensive to access.
在每个选举周期，现任政府都会“被归咎于也许并非其责任的事情”，卡内基梅隆大学的克莱说道。“但在这种情况下，有实质性理由相信美国政府的行为已经转化为更高的价格。”
In every electoral cycle, incumbent administrations are “blamed for things that maybe aren’t their fault,” said Clay of Carnegie Mellon. “But in this case there are substantive reasons to believe the actions of the US government have translated into higher prices.”