“他们都想成为全栈解决方案提供商，但不可能都实现，”Gartner分析师威尔·索默对彭博社表示。
“All of them want to be the full-stack. They can’t all be,” Gartner analyst Will Sommer told Bloomberg.
Gartner于10月14日称，超过3.5万亿美元的AI基础设施支出可能在2030年底前面临减值。如果AI提供商继续以当前速度进行支出，就会出现这种情况。公司必须对受损资产进行减记，因为这些资产已无法收回其成本。
More than $3.5tn of AI infrastructure spending faces possible impairment by the end of 2030, Gartner said on 14 October. That would happen if AI providers keep spending at their current pace. Companies must write down impaired assets, because those assets can no longer earn back their cost.
该研究机构还预测，到2030年，超过80%的新云公司将停止独立运营。新云公司是指专门为AI构建并出租算力的公司。Gartner将其归因于成本压力以及缺乏能够使其与众不同的商业模式。
The research firm also predicts that more than 80% of neoclouds will stop operating independently by 2030. Neoclouds are companies that rent out computing power built for AI. Gartner blames cost pressure and the lack of a business model that sets them apart.
Gartner预计AI提供商将在2026年花费近1万亿美元用于AI基础设施，资深分析师索默在其声明中表示。它预测2027年至2030年之间将再投入6万亿美元。
The revenue gap Gartner expects AI providers to spend nearly $1tn on AI infrastructure in 2026, Sommer, a senior director analyst, said in its statement. It forecasts another $6tn between 2027 and 2030.
到2030年，AI数据中心所有者需要8.5万亿美元的收入来覆盖该支出及其融资成本。该数字还包括对投入资本的12%回报，Gartner假设这是投资的门槛率。Gartner预测，在此期间，与AI数据中心相关的企业和消费者AI收入不超过3.6万亿美元。
Through 2030, AI data centre owners would need $8.5tn in revenue to cover that spending and its financing costs. That figure also includes a 12% return on invested capital, which Gartner assumes to be the hurdle rate for investment. Gartner forecasts no more than $3.6tn of business and consumer AI revenue tied to AI data centres in that period.
“我们的研究表明，企业和消费者AI收入将不足以支持在此期间所有计划的AI资本支出实现盈利回报，”索默表示。
“Our research indicates that enterprise and consumer AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns on all planned AI capital expenditures during this period,” Sommer said.
大多数AI原生提供商采用轻资产业务模式。因此，Gartner预计不到一半的AI收入将流向拥有大量AI基础设施的提供商。
Most AI-native providers run asset-light businesses. So Gartner expects less than half of AI revenue to go to providers that own significant AI infrastructure.
如果支出保持当前趋势，到2032年可能有超过4万亿美元的资产价值面临减记风险。在这种情况下，Gartner预计12%的回报率最早也要到2032年底才能实现。索默、马克·麦克唐纳德和约翰·洛夫洛克共同撰写了得出这些数据的研究报告。
If spending stays on its current path, more than $4tn in asset value could face write-down risk through 2032. In that case, Gartner does not expect the 12% return to arrive until the end of 2032 at the earliest. Sommer, Mark McDonald and John Lovelock wrote the research note behind the figures.
Gartner表示，超大规模云服务提供商拥有规模庞大且多样化的收入，足以支撑多年的人工智能支出。新兴云服务提供商（Neoclouds）必须尽快在人工智能优化的云基础设施上实现回报，以维持运营。
Neoclouds are the most exposed Hyperscalers have large and varied revenue that could support AI spending for years, Gartner said. Neoclouds must soon earn returns on AI-optimised cloud infrastructure to keep running.
Gartner预计，该基础设施的支出将从2027年的660亿美元增长至2030年的1740亿美元。索默表示，这一增长速度过低。大多数人工智能算力提供商将无法在新一代人工智能芯片取代当前一代之前收回其投资。
Gartner expects spending on that infrastructure to grow from $66bn in 2027 to $174bn in 2030. That growth is too low, Sommer said. Most AI compute providers will not earn back their investment before newer AI chips replace the current generation.
彭博社指出，CoreWeave和Nebius是比微软、Alphabet和亚马逊更直接暴露于风险的专业提供商。CoreWeave的股票和债券本周因其人工智能债务而大幅下跌。
Bloomberg named CoreWeave and Nebius as specialist providers more directly exposed than Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. CoreWeave’s shares and bonds fell steeply this week over its AI debt.
索默告诉彭博社，许多新兴云服务提供商希望出售云服务提供商的高利润软件和服务，但只有少数可能成功。
Many neoclouds want to sell the higher-margin software and services of cloud providers, Sommer told Bloomberg. Few may succeed.
“每花费一美元用于算力，只有其中的一小部分会流向算力的所有者，”索默说。他对《The》给出了混合的评价。
“For every dollar that’s spent on compute, only a fraction of that is going to the owners of compute,” Sommer said. He gave The a mixed picture.
“并非所有人都陷入困境。有些会表现优异，有些会表现不佳，有些则可能被迫退出市场，”索默对《The》表示。
“Not everyone is in trouble. Some will outperform, some will underperform, and some will have to exit the market,” Sommer told The.
其他警告：Gartner的数据紧随贝恩公司（Bain & Company）的估计之后，后者认为人工智能行业需要在2031年实现6万亿美元的年收入。本周，国际货币基金组织（IMF）也警告了循环式人工智能交易的风险。
Other warnings Gartner’s numbers follow a Bain & Company estimate that the AI industry needs $6tn in annual revenue by 2031. This week, the IMF also warned about circular AI deals.