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并非所有共和党人都想展示特朗普Trump is hitting the campaign trail. But he's missing from GOP ads.

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2026年10月13日,唐纳德·特朗普总统在阿拉斯加州瓦西拉的梅纳德纪念体育中心举行的竞选集会上发表讲话。特朗普总统正在阿拉斯加州为中期选举前的共和党候选人助选。President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Menard Memorial Sports Center on Oct. 13, 2026, in Wasilla, Alaska. President Trump is in Alaska campaigning for Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections.

唐纳德·特朗普正在全国巡回演讲,以在中期选举最后几周提振共和党候选人。但许多候选人希望保持这种支持的低调。

Donald Trump is barnstorming the country to boost Republicans in the final weeks of the midterms. But many candidates want to keep that support quiet.

即使是在共和党两年前乐于宣传其背书的红州,总统也未出现在共和党的广告中。一些候选人甚至犹豫是否要在竞选途中与特朗普同台亮相——尽管他们希望他能帮助在11月提升MAGA基本盘的投票率。

The president is nowhere to be found in GOP ads, even in red states where Republicans were happy to tout his endorsement two years ago. And some candidates are hesitant to appear with Trump on the campaign trail — even as they hope he will help juice turnout among the MAGA base in November.

根据POLITICO对AdImpact数据的分析,AdImpact追踪政治广告,民主党众议院和参议院候选人以及外部团体在提及特朗普的大选广告上花费了1.45亿美元,而共和党仅花费了800万美元。这与2024年形成鲜明对比,当时共和党候选人在提及特朗普的广告上花费了6200万美元。

Democratic House and Senate candidates and outside groups have spent $145 million on general election ads mentioning Trump, while Republicans have spent just $8 million, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. That’s in sharp contrast to 2024, when GOP candidates spent $62 million on ads mentioning Trump.

“特朗普目前处于历史低点,所以如果他来到你的选区或州,那就是为了动员共和党基础选票,这肯定能起到帮助作用,”长期共和党策略师罗恩·邦让说。“但候选人在竞选途中全天候谈论特朗普确实很重要。”不利的全国政治环境让共和党候选人很少有动机将自己与特朗普绑定,而且越来越多的竞争激烈选区的共和党人在伊朗战争和关税等问题上与总统决裂。

“Trump is at historic lows right now, so if he comes to your district or state, it’s about getting the Republican base vote out there and that can certainly help,” said Ron Bonjean, a longtime GOP strategist. “But it's really important for the candidates not to be talking about Trump 24/7 on the campaign trail.”The unfavorable national political environment leaves few incentives for GOP candidates to tie themselves to Trump, and more and more Republicans in competitive races have broken with the president on issues such as the Iran war and tariffs.

当共和党人在广告中提到特朗普时,他们往往并不在宣传他的支持。在阿拉斯加,共和党参议员丹·沙利文投放了一则广告,称他“投票迫使特朗普司法部释放爱泼斯坦文件”。在内布拉斯加和俄亥俄等红州,广播中的沉默尤为显著。2024年,当时面临独立人士丹·奥斯本挑战的内布拉斯加州参议员德布·费舍尔(共和党-内布拉斯加州)以及当时正挑战时任参议员谢罗德·布朗的俄亥俄州参议员伯尼·莫雷诺(共和党-俄亥俄州),两人均投放了多则包含特朗普背书的大选广告。

When Republicans do mention Trump in ads, they often aren’t touting his support. In Alaska, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan has run an ad citing how he “voted to force Trump's DOJ to release the Epstein files.”The silence on the airwaves is especially stark in red states like Nebraska and Ohio. In 2024, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who was facing a challenge from independent Dan Osborn, and now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who was challenging then-Sen. Sherrod Brown, both ran several general election ads featuring endorsements from Trump.

当年特朗普在内布拉斯加州以超过20个百分点的优势获胜,在俄亥俄州以12个百分点获胜,费舍尔和莫雷诺也各自赢得了各自的选举。

The president won Nebraska by more than 20 points and Ohio by 12 points that year, with Fischer and Moreno also winning their races.

但本轮选举周期,共和党在这两个州的广告中并未聚焦特朗普,因为内布拉斯加州的奥斯本与共和党参议员皮特·里克茨之间的竞争正在升温,而俄亥俄州的布朗则正试图击败共和党参议员约翰·赫斯特。

But this cycle, the GOP isn’t focusing its ads on Trump in either state, as the match-up between Osborn and Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts heats up in Nebraska and Brown seeks to oust Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio.

里克茨和赫斯特本月早些时候均曾出现在特朗普的集会上。尽管如此,特朗普在俄亥俄州的所有共和党参议员广告中均未出现,而里克茨唯一提到总统的广告仅指责奥斯本贬低特朗普的支持者——但并未提及特朗普的背书。

Both Ricketts and Husted appeared at Trump rallies earlier this month. Still, Trump is absent from all Republican Senate ads in Ohio, and the only Ricketts ads that name the president accuse Osborn of disparaging Trump supporters — but don’t mention Trump’s endorsement.

“伊朗战争,我认为,已经成为共和党候选人脖子上真正的绞索,原因在于可负担性危机,” 前俄亥俄州众议员吉姆·雷纳奇说。他所合作的一个非营利组织对选民进行了调查,询问共和党候选人是否应该与特朗普同台出现,结果发现“在大多数情况下,你并不希望[特朗普]站在你身边,这就是为什么我有点惊讶,因为乔恩·赫斯特德已经与特朗普总统举办了两场活动,因为我相信俄亥俄州存在强劲的逆风,而且与2024年相比发生了巨大变化。”

"The war in Iran, I think, has become a real noose around the neck of Republican candidates because of the affordability crisis," said former Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci. A nonprofit he works with surveyed voters on whether GOP candidates should appear with Trump and found that "in most cases you do not want [Trump] standing near you, which is why I was a little bit surprised that Jon Husted has had two events with President Trump, because I do believe there's a strong headwind in Ohio, and a big change from 2024."

赫斯特德的竞选发言人艾米·纳托切在一份声明中告诉《政治》杂志:“特朗普总统三次以8个百分点、8个百分点和11个百分点的优势决定性地赢得了俄亥俄州。如果我们今年11月成功动员MAGA选民投票,那么我们将永远淘汰谢罗德·布朗。”全国共和党参议院竞选委员会未对置评请求作出回应。

Husted’s campaign spokesperson Amy Natoce told POLITICO in a statement, “President Trump won Ohio decisively three times by 8 points, 8 points and 11 points. If we successfully turn out the MAGA vote this November, then we will retire Sherrod Brown for good.”The National Republican Senatorial Committee did not respond to a request for comment.

“特朗普总统是共和党无可争议的领袖、最佳信使和无与伦比的激励者,他致力于维持共和党在国会的多数派地位,” 白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔说。“选择从未如此明确:加倍下注于特朗普总统获胜的、常识性的议程,还是民主党的极端自由主义政策和阻挠。”另一位共和党内部人士表示,他同样来自俄亥俄州,和其他人一样被授予匿名以便 candidly 谈论自己所在的党派,他说共和党候选人需要找到一种方式来谈论特朗普政府——不给小费征税,保障社会保障——而不提及椭圆形办公室里的那个人。

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said. “The choice has never been more clear: doubling down on President Trump’s winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction.”Another Republican operative, who is based in Ohio and like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about their own party, said GOP candidates need to find a way to talk about the Trump administration — no tax on tips, protecting social security — without mentioning the guy in the Oval Office.

“这位总统历来不受欢迎,”这位在过去15年里参与过多场州级竞选的策略师说。“我们都认同这一点,因此我认为在电视上与他关系过于密切会比较困难。”特朗普的集会不同于候选人的广告,更被视为针对总统的支持基础。他不仅访问传统摇摆州如乔治亚州和密歇根州,还访问传统安全的红州如阿拉巴马州和堪萨斯州。

“This is a historically unpopular president,” said the strategist, who has worked on multiple statewide races over the course of the last 15 years. “We all agree with that, and so it's kind of hard to attach yourself on the airways, I think, too closely to him.”Trump’s rallies, unlike candidates’ ads, are seen more as targeting the president’s base. He’s not only visiting traditional battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but also typically safe red states like Alabama and Kansas.

尽管如此,他的活动仍与一些共和党候选人产生了紧张关系。据三位直接了解对话内容并获准匿名以分享私人细节的共和党人透露,上周特朗普团队原计划让总统在密歇根州西部地区进行竞选活动,但多位共和党候选人及其团队最初不知道是否应该参加并被看到与总统同框。他们担心与特朗普的关税政策挂钩,而该政策对该州造成了冲击,再加上伊朗战争期间燃油价格居高不下。

Still, his events have been a source of tension with some GOP candidates. When Trump’s team was making plans for the president to campaign in Michigan last week potentially in western Michigan, several Republican candidates and their teams up and down the ticket initially didn't know whether they should attend and be seen with the president, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge of the conversations, who were granted anonymity to share private details. They were concerned about being associated with Trump’s tariffs, which have hammered the state, along with high fuel prices amid the Iran war.

特朗普官员取消了该活动,并表示总统将在本月晚些时候访问该州。特朗普目前安排在10月25日于该州举行集会。

Trump officials scrapped the event and said the president would visit the state later in the month. Trump is now scheduled for a rally in the state on Oct. 25.

“共和党候选人将会做他们需要做的事情,”一位接近白宫的共和党民调专家说。“白宫和总统正在做的事情是,他们正在瞄准他们认为总统能起到帮助作用的地区。”一位获准匿名以坦率发言的白宫官员表示,特朗普允许共和党人讨论与他们所在州或选区相关的议题,“因为他明白这不是在反对他。”

"[Republican candidates] are going to do what they need to do," said one GOP pollster close to the White House. "What the White House and the president are doing is they are targeting places where they think the president can be helpful.”Trump has allowed Republicans to discuss issues pertaining to their states or districts as “he understands that it is not a balk on him,” said one White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

一位官员表示:“如果特朗普‘认为所有这些人都在阻碍他,我A) 不认为他会想要每天都在路上奔波,而B) 我认为你可能会看到一位更直言不讳的唐纳德·J·特朗普总统在Truth Social等平台上发表意见。’”根据另外两位参与对话的白宫官员的说法,总统及其团队正在赋予大多数参议院共和党候选人,尤其是在某些时候,较大的自由度以偏离他的一些政策。他们说,特朗普理解脆弱候选人需要与他保持一定距离,尽管过去他曾对党内成员因类似举动而发怒。

If Trump “was to believe that all these individuals were balking him, I A) don’t think that he would want to be on the road every day, and B) I do think that you would probably see a more vocal President Donald J. Trump on Truth, et cetera, kind of voicing his opinion on it,” the official said. The president and his team are giving most Senate GOP candidates especially a wide latitude to break with some of his policies at times, according to two other White House officials involved in the conversations. Trump, they said, understands the need for vulnerable candidates to create some distance, even though in the past he has lashed out at members of his party for similar moves.

然而,在更亲近MAGA的众议院中,共和党人预计将更紧密地跟随总统行动。官员们表示,只有风险最高的候选人才被允许在某种程度上与特朗普保持距离,鉴于党内可能引发的混乱洪流。

Republicans in the more MAGA-friendly House, however, are expected to run more in lock-step with the president. Only the most at-risk candidates are afforded some room to break with Trump, the officials said, given the tidal wave of chaos that can spur within the conference.

一位正在为摇摆地区众议院选举工作的共和党策划人,获准匿名以讨论私人信息,表示他已从白宫获得预批准,让其候选人可以缺席一场计划中的集会。但该策划人警告说,这并不意味着特朗普不会在发现候选人缺席时,从舞台上斥责某人。

One GOP strategist working on a battleground House race, granted anonymity to discuss private information, said he had gotten pre-approved from the White House for his candidate to miss a planned rally. Still, the strategist cautioned, that doesn't mean Trump won't berate someone from the stage when he notices the candidate is missing.

共和党人仍然认为特朗普是其基本盘的独特激励因素,而集会是帮助动员可能受总统影响的选民出票的工具。由于民主党选民已经因反对特朗普而被激发热情,共和党人通过让总统出面动员MAGA选民也有更少的东西可失去。

Republicans still see Trump as a unique motivator for his base and rallies as a tool to help turn out voters who might be driven by the president. With Democratic voters already energized by opposing Trump, the GOP has less to lose by bringing the president out to turn out MAGA voters too.

北卡罗来纳州的共和党策划人保罗·舒马克表示:“事实是,民主党人将在这次中期选举中投票。而共和党人需要做的是专注于他们能做些什么来提升自己这边的选民投票率。”他补充说,特朗普将于下周返回该州举行集会,而共和党参议员候选人迈克尔·惠特利正努力在选举中缩小差距。

“The reality is, Democrats are going to vote in this midterm,” said Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist from North Carolina, where Trump is set to return for a rally next week as GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley struggles to close the gap in his race. “And what Republicans need to be doing is focus on what they can do to improve their voter turnout on their side.