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高债务与日益加剧的压力凸显采取新发展方式的必要性High debt, growing strains put focus on need for new development approaches

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2026年10月16日,世界银行集团行长阿贾伊·班加在泰国曼谷诗丽吉王后国家会议中心出席国际货币基金组织/世界银行2026年年会全体会议。路透社/帕蒂帕·詹通World Bank Group President Ajay Banga attends the Annual Meetings Plenary for the IMF/World Bank 2026 Annual Meetings at Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok, Thailand, October 16, 2026. REUTERS/Patipat Janthong

高债务水平、不断上升的债务偿还成本以及官方发展援助的急剧下降,迫使发展中国家及帮助它们的机构重新思考发展,并寻找新的资金来源,包括来自私营部门的资金。

High debt levels, rising debt-service costs and a sharp drop in official development assistance are forcing developing countries and institutions that help them to rethink development and look for new sources of funding, including from the private sector.

世界银行行长阿杰·班加主导了一项推动,使自2022年以来流向发展项目的私人资本增加了三倍多。他在年度国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议上表示,需要进行改革,以帮助各国应对持续冲突、官方发展援助下降以及债务负担加重所带来的逆风。

World Bank President Ajay Banga, who has led a drive that has more than tripled the private capital flowing to development projects since 2022, told the annual IMF and World Bank meetings that changes were needed to help countries address headwinds posed by persistent conflicts, a drop in official development assistance and rising debt burdens.

他还表示,一场巨大的人口挑战也正在展开,预计未来10至15年将有约12亿年轻人进入就业市场,但目前只有4亿个就业岗位可期。

A huge demographic challenge was also unfolding, he said, with some 1.2 billion young people likely to join the job market in the next 10 to 15 years, but only 400 million jobs in sight.

班加表示,答案在于将公共财政、私人投资、慈善事业和技术结合起来,以满足每个国家的需求。

The answer, Banga said, would depend on bringing public finance, private investment, philanthropy and technology together to meet each country's needs.

英国外交大臣埃德·米利班德表示,他将把债务重组以及对最贫穷国家的其他援助,作为英国即将担任的二十国集团轮值主席国的一个关键主题。

British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said he would make debt restructuring and other help for the poorest countries a key theme for Britain's upcoming G20 presidency.

但他表示,私营部门需要加大力度,因为英国和其他富裕国家无法提供与千禧年之际上一次大规模债务减免行动期间相同水平的支持。

But he said the private sector needed to step up since Britain and other rich nations could not provide the same level of support as during the last big debt forgiveness push at the turn of the millennium.

“向新兴市场贷款的风险被高估了,违约风险也被高估了,”他在周三由一家致力于发展工作的美国私人基金会——洛克菲勒基金会主办的一个小组讨论会上表示。

"The risks of lending to emerging markets have been overestimated and the risk of default has been overestimated," he told a panel on Wednesday hosted by the Rockefeller Foundation, a private US foundation that works on development.

发展中国家也在寻求布雷顿森林两大机构之外的答案,对高债务水平、气候变化、不断加剧的不平等以及地缘政治挑战的应对感到失望。

Developing countries are also looking for answers outside the two Bretton Woods institutions, disappointed by the response to high debt levels, climate change, worsening inequality and geopolitical challenges.

“自2023年以来,世界在许多方面变得更糟了,”印度国际经济关系研究委员会主任兼首席执行官谢卡尔·艾亚尔本周在全球发展中心举办的活动上表示。

"The world has, in many ways, changed for the worse since 2023," Shekhar Aiyar, director and chief executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, told an event hosted by the Center for Global Development this week.

“发展中国家陷入了增长放缓和脆弱性增加的恶性循环……与此同时,双边援助出现了大幅削减。”经合组织发展援助委员会捐助国在2025年的对外援助实际下降了23%,这是官方发展援助历史上最大的年度降幅。前五大捐助国——美国、德国、英国、日本和法国——均削减了援助,共同占总降幅的96%。

"Developing countries have been caught in a downward spiral of decelerating growth and increased vulnerability ... at the same time, there has been a vast scaling back of bilateral aid." International aid from OECD Development Assistance Committee donor countries fell 23% in real terms in 2025, marking the biggest annual drop in the history of ODA. The top five donors — the US, Germany, UK, Japan and France — all cut aid, together accounting for 96% of the total drop.

与此同时,根据联合国贸易和发展会议(负责贸易、投资和发展问题的官方联合国机构)的数据,发展中国家的合计外债存款在当年达到12.3万亿美元,较2024年增加了5000亿美元。

Meanwhile, according to UNCTAD — the official UN body responsible for trade, investment and development issues — developing countries' combined external debt stock reached $12.3 trillion in the same year, up by half a trillion from 2024.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的全面关税加剧了紧张局势,促使许多发展中国家和新兴市场寻求不包括美国在内的新贸易伙伴关系。

US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have added to strains and prompted many developing countries and emerging markets to forge new trade partnerships that do not include the United States.

印度财政部长尼尔马拉·西塔拉曼在大西洋理事会的广播节目中表示,像她这样的国家正在推进更多双边伙伴关系。

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told an Atlantic Council broadcast that countries like hers were plowing ahead with more bilateral partnerships.

“我觉得这种'是的,我们想要多边主义,但我们并不在等待它,我们将继续推进双边合作'的做法,真的为印度带来了回报,”西塔拉曼说。

"I feel this approach of 'Yes, we want multilateralism, but yet we're not waiting for it, we are going ahead with bilateral,' has really rewarded India," Sitharaman said.

倡导债务减免的Jubilee USA Network执行主任埃里克·勒孔普特表示,今年的会议对发展中国家来说是一次巨大的失望,既没有提供新举措来帮助那些已经面临沉重债务偿付压力的国家,也没有缓解他们如今背负的飙升的借贷成本。

Eric LeCompte, executive director of Jubilee USA Network, which advocates for debt relief, said this year's meetings were a big disappointment for developing countries, providing no new initiative to help those already facing steep debt-service payments and now saddled with soaring borrowing costs.

他说,国际货币基金组织未能达到启动其扩大版减贫与增长信托所需的临界规模,该信托向低收入国家提供低息贷款,并且几乎没有提及其灾难遏制与救济信托,该信托向全球最贫困国家提供债务减免的赠款。

He said the IMF failed to reach critical mass to launch its expanded Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, which lends to low-income countries at low interest rates, and barely mentioned its Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust, which provides grants for debt relief to the world's poorest countries.

“有很多关于问题有多么严峻的信息,但我们几乎看不到任何行动,”他说,除了全球主权债务圆桌会议对债务重组计划的微调之外。“我们期待更多,”他说。

"There was a lot of information about how challenging problems are, but we saw hardly any action," he said, aside from tweaks to debt restructuring plans by the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. "We were expecting more," he said.

欧洲债务与发展网络的主任让·萨尔丹哈问道:“在哪里有紧急措施来阻止全球南方国家被迫在债务上的支出超过卫生和教育?而在哪里有针对日益加剧的气候紧急情况的严肃政策应对?这种情况因超级厄尔尼诺现象而被放大。” “最不发达国家已经明确表示,他们需要更多的气候赠款、更少的债务、更简单的获取途径和更快速的拨付,”她说。

Jean Saldanha, director of the European Network on Debt and Development, asked: "Where are the emergency measures to stop countries in the Global South being forced to spend more on debt than on health and education? And where are the serious policy responses to the escalating climate emergency, boosted by a Super El Niño?" "The least-developed countries have said loud and clear they need more climate grants, less debt, simpler access and faster disbursements," she said.

伊斯兰开发银行集团主席穆罕默德·阿尔·贾塞尔告诉路透社,人们对动员私营部门资金以补充日益稀缺的公共资源的兴趣正在增长。

Muhammad Al Jasser, who chairs the Islamic Development Bank group, told Reuters there was growing interest in securing private sector funds to augment increasingly scarce public resources.

“挑战巨大。我们既不能单独解决,也不能在短时间内甚至通过集体行动来解决这些问题,但我认为我们(正在)朝着正确的方向前进,”他说,并补充称他的银行计划明年部署100亿美元的融资。

"The challenges are huge. We're not going to solve them either single-handedly or even collectively in a short period of time, but I think we are (heading) in the right direction," he said, adding his bank was aiming to deploy $10 billion in financing next year.