斯默康尼什深入探讨了如果民主党在11月赢得众议院将会发生什么。他们会专注于调查特朗普政府，还是推进他们的立法议程？
Smerconish delves into what will happen if the democrats win the House in November. Will they focus on investigating the Trump administration or advancing their legislative agenda?
立法？我是迈克尔·斯默康尼什，来自费城郊区。这就是即将到来的中期选举所面临的利害关系。但民主党所寻求的更大变化是否可能实现？这是另一个问题。当富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福在大萧条时期上任时，他使用了“前100天”这个短语来解释他是如何迅速投入工作的。
LEGISLATION? I'M MICHAEL SMERCONISH IN THE PHILLY BURBS. THAT'S WHAT'S AT STAKE IN THE UPCOMING MIDTERM ELECTIONS. BUT IS THE BIGGER CHANGE POSSIBLE THAT DEMOCRATS SEEK? THAT'S A DIFFERENT QUESTION. WHEN FDR TOOK OFFICE DURING THE DEPRESSION, HE USED THE PHRASE FIRST 100 DAYS TO EXPLAIN HOW HE'D HIT THE GROUND RUNNING.
自那以后，总统谈论他们在头100天将做什么已成为常态。现在，希望夺取国会控制权的民主党人也跟上了这一潮流。美联社报道称，民主党人已经制定了详细计划，说明他们将如何在掌众议院后处理头100天的事务。这不是愿望清单，而更像是一个时间表。可能成为议长的哈基姆·杰弗里斯表示，他的党将在一上任就团结一致。
SINCE THEN, IT'S COMMON FOR PRESIDENTS TO TALK ABOUT WHAT THEY'LL DO IN THEIR FIRST 100 DAYS. AND NOW DEMOCRATS HOPING TO TAKE OVER CONGRESS HAVE JUMPED ON THAT BANDWAGON. THE AP REPORTING THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE DETAILED PLANS FOR HOW THEY WOULD HANDLE THEIR FIRST 100 DAYS RUNNING THE HOUSE. IT'S NOT A WISH LIST. IT'S MORE OF A SCHEDULE. HAKEEM JEFFRIES, WHO WOULD LIKELY BE SPEAKER, SAYS HIS PARTY WILL BE UNITED RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE.
计划不仅是在头100天启动议程，而在新国会宣誓就职后的头100小时内实际启动。那么议程上有什么内容呢？首先是医疗保健：恢复在疫情期间扩大、并在2025年底到期的《平价医疗法案》税收抵免。其次是撤销共和党在“一揽子宏大而美好的法案”中通过的医疗补助削减，包括新增的工作要求。第三是战争问题：民主党人已经在多数党中多次迫使投票以结束美国对伊朗的军事行动，他们将推动更多此类战争权力决议。
THE PLAN IS TO LAUNCH THE AGENDA NOT MERELY IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS, BUT ACTUALLY IN THE FIRST 100 HOURS AFTER THE NEW CONGRESS IS SWORN IN. SO WHAT'S ON THE LIST? FIRST, HEALTH CARE RESTORE THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT TAX CREDITS THAT WERE EXPANDED DURING THE PANDEMIC AND EXPIRED AT THE END OF 2025. SECOND, REVERSED THE MEDICAID CUTS THAT REPUBLICANS PASSED IN THE ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL, INCLUDING THE NEW WORK REQUIREMENTS. THIRD, THE WAR. DEMOCRATS HAVE ALREADY FORCED MULTIPLE VOTES TO END U.S. MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN IN THE MAJORITY. THEY PUSH MORE OF THOSE WAR POWERS RESOLUTIONS.
第四是关税：撤销总统的关税制度，并从白宫夺回贸易权。此外还有议程的另一半：监督。杰弗里斯已要求监督和司法委员会的顶级民主党人准备对总统、他的家人及其政府进行弹劾调查。杰弗里表示，这既不在桌上也不在桌下。而在无形因素方面，那些得到美国民主社会主义者支持的候选人将占据什么位置？他们会形成类似共和党自由党团的自身版本吗？
FOURTH, TARIFFS UNDO THE PRESIDENT'S TARIFF REGIME AND CLAW BACK TRADE POWER FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. AND THEN THERE'S THE OTHER HALF OF THE AGENDA. OVERSIGHT. JEFFRIES HAS TOLD THE TOP DEMOCRATS ON THE OVERSIGHT AND JUDICIARY COMMITTEES TO PREPARE INVESTIGATIONS OF THE PRESIDENT, HIS FAMILY AND HIS ADMINISTRATION ON IMPEACHMENT. JEFFREY SAYS IT IS NEITHER ON NOR OFF THE TABLE. AND AMONG THE INTANGIBLES, WHAT WILL BE THE PLACE FOR THOSE CANDIDATES BACKED BY THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS OF AMERICA? WILL THEY FORM THEIR OWN VERSION OF THE GOP'S FREEDOM CAUCUS?
当然，任何民主党计划都取决于他们是否赢得众议院、参议院或两者。无论如何，总统仍然拥有他的否决权。以恢复《平价医疗法案》下的新冠税收抵免这一项为例：民主党人在众议院第一天就通过了该法案。然后它将提交参议院，需要60票才能克服阻挠议事。即使它 somehow 通过了，也会被送到唐纳德·特朗普的办公桌上。
OF COURSE, ANY DEMOCRATIC PLANS DEPEND ON THEM WINNING THE HOUSE OR THE SENATE OR BOTH. AND NO MATTER WHAT, THE PRESIDENT STILL HAS HIS VETO PEN. TAKE THAT FIRST ITEM RESTORING THE COVID TAX CREDITS FOR THE ACA. DEMOCRATS PASSED IT IN THE HOUSE ON DAY ONE. THEN IT GOES TO THE SENATE WHERE IT NEEDS 60 VOTES TO GET PAST A FILIBUSTER. AND EVEN IF IT SOMEHOW GETS THROUGH, IT LANDS ON DONALD TRUMP'S DESK.
医疗补助计划的逆转也是如此。废除关税也是如此。结束战争也是如此。但如果民主党控制的众议院无法自行通过法律，它还能做什么？第一，掌握财政权。没有众议院的支出法案不会成为法律。这是真正的杠杆，因为民主党人可以拒绝为某些事项提供资金，并向必须通过的法案附加条件。但这种杠杆建立在政府停摆的威胁之上。
SAME STORY FOR THE MEDICAID REVERSAL. SAME FOR REPEALING THE TARIFFS. SAME FOR ENDING THE WAR. BUT IF A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CAN'T PASS LAWS ON ITS OWN, WHAT CAN IT DO? NUMBER ONE, THE POWER OF THE PURSE. NO SPENDING BILL BECOMES LAW WITHOUT THE HOUSE. THAT'S REAL LEVERAGE, BECAUSE DEMOCRATS CAN REFUSE TO FUND THINGS AND ATTACH CONDITIONS TO BILLS THAT HAVE TO PASS. BUT THAT LEVERAGE RUNS THROUGH A THREAT OF GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.
而记录显示情况复杂。第二，债务上限。政府可能在2027年某时达到41.1万亿美元的借款上限。这将为民主党控制的众议院提供一张可打的牌，这也是为什么共和党人正在讨论在大选后的鸭子会期（即任期结束前的会议）提高债务上限。第三，监督。这是众议院多数党拥有最大权力的领域。委员会可以举行听证会。他们可以要求提供文件。
AND THE RECORD THERE IS MIXED. NUMBER TWO, THE DEBT CEILING. THE GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY HIT ITS $41.1 TRILLION BORROWING LIMIT SOMETIME IN 2027. THAT WOULD GIVE A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE A CARD TO PLAY, WHICH IS WHY REPUBLICANS ARE TALKING ABOUT RAISING THE DEBT CEILING IN A LAME DUCK SESSION AFTER THE ELECTION. NUMBER THREE OVERSIGHT. THIS IS WHERE A HOUSE MAJORITY HAS THE MOST POWER. COMMITTEES CAN CALL HEARINGS. THEY CAN DEMAND DOCUMENTS.
他们可以传唤人员。我们在总统第一个任期之前就见过这一幕，当时的策略是在法院对抗传票并拖延时间。
THEY CAN SUBPOENA PEOPLE. WE'VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE IN THE PRESIDENT'S FIRST TERM, THE STRATEGY WAS TO FIGHT SUBPOENAS IN COURT AND RUN OUT THE CLOCK.
当证人忽视传票时，众议院可以将其视为藐视国会。但起诉藐视国会的权力属于司法部。而这是唐纳德·特朗普的司法部。第四次弹劾。众议院可以以简单多数通过弹劾，但罢免需要参议院三分之二的投票。唐纳德·特朗普已被弹劾两次，在众议院被无罪释放，在参议院两次面临众议院的弹劾。这是一个声明。这不是罢免。
AND WHEN A WITNESS IGNORES A SUBPOENA, THE HOUSE CAN HOLD HIM IN CONTEMPT. BUT PROSECUTING CONTEMPT IS UP TO THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT. AND THIS IS DONALD TRUMP'S DOJ. NUMBER FOUR IMPEACHMENT. THE HOUSE CAN IMPEACH WITH A SIMPLE MAJORITY, BUT REMOVAL TAKES A TWO THIRDS VOTE OF THE SENATE. DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN IMPEACHED TWICE, ACQUITTED IN THE HOUSE, IN THE SENATE TWICE A HOUSE IMPEACHMENT. THAT'S A STATEMENT. IT'S NOT A REMOVAL.
但所有这些猜测的前提是，如果民主党只赢得众议院而未赢得参议院，那么如果他们赢得两院呢？这将带来两件重大事情。首先，确认任命。参议院决定谁获得确认。内阁部长、大使，最重要的是，联邦法官。要让一名法官通过确认只需多数票。其次，虽然大多数法案需要参议院60票才能克服阻挠议事，但有些法案只需多数票。
BUT ALL THIS SPECULATION IS IF THE DEMOCRATS TAKE THE HOUSE AND ONLY THE HOUSE, WHAT IF THEY WIN BOTH CHAMBERS? TWO BIG THINGS. FIRST, CONFIRMATIONS. THE SENATE DECIDES WHO GETS CONFIRMED. CABINET SECRETARIES, AMBASSADORS, AND ABOVE ALL ELSE, FEDERAL JUDGES. ALL THAT'S NEEDED TO GET A JUDGE THROUGH A MAJORITY IS A MAJORITY VOTE. SECOND, THOUGH, MOST BILLS NEED 60 VOTES IN THE SENATE TO GET AROUND THE FILIBUSTER. SOME ONLY REQUIRE A MAJORITY.
例如战争权力、决议等法案实际上会送达总统办公桌。底线是什么？一个大部分法案无法成为法律的100天立法议程有什么意义？批评者会称其为仅为表演而通过的信息法案。然而，如果民主党确实赢得众议院和参议院，他们将拥有权力。
LIKE WAR POWERS, RESOLUTIONS, SUCH BILLS WILL ACTUALLY GET TO THE PRESIDENT'S DESK. BOTTOM LINE, WHAT'S THE POINT OF A 100 DAY LEGISLATIVE AGENDA THAT MOSTLY CAN'T BECOME LAW? CRITICS WILL CALL IT MESSAGING BILLS PASSED FOR SHOW. HOWEVER, IF DEMOCRATS DO TAKE THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE, THEY'LL HAVE THE POWER