密西西比州已经超过40年没有选出民主党参议员。密西西比今日政治记者泰勒·万斯帮助我们解析该州的选举情况，您正在看到的就是现场情况。请为我们描述一下背景。我只是想让大家知道，密西西比州自1982年以来就没有输送过民主党参议员。这就是我们目前的处境。请为我们描述一下这场竞选的情况。>> 是的，是的。
Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 40 years. Mississippi Today's Politics Reporter, Taylor Vance helps us break down the race in this state INTO YOU'RE SEEING ON THE GROUND THERE. SO SET THE STAGE FOR US. AND I JUST SO EVERYONE KNOWS MISSISSIPPI HAS NOT SENT A DEMOCRAT TO THE SENATE SINCE 1982. SO THAT'S WHERE WE ARE. SET THE SCENE FOR US WITH THIS RACE. >> YEAH, YEAH.
嗯，我认为密西西比州具有竞争力。我认为密西西比州一直都具有竞争力，尽管人们可能会惊讶地得知这一点。但我认为，对于这里的民主党人来说，这仍将是一场相当艰难的斗争。嗯，你知道，密西西比州是全国黑人选民比例最高的州，而黑人选民总体上倾向于支持民主党。嗯，密西西比州是一个农业州，农民目前正面临困境。
UM, I THINK THAT MISSISSIPPI IS COMPETITIVE. I THINK MISSISSIPPI HAS ALWAYS BEEN COMPETITIVE, EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE MAY BE SURPRISED TO LEARN THAT. BUT IT'S STILL GOING TO BE A PRETTY TOUGH FIGHT, I THINK, FOR THE DEMOCRATS HERE. UM, YOU KNOW, MISSISSIPPI HAS THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF BLACK VOTERS OUT OF ANY STATE IN THE NATION, AND BLACK VOTERS, UH, BY AND LARGE, TEND TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC. UM, MISSISSIPPI IS AN AGRICULTURAL STATE AND FARMERS ARE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW.
我认为民主党希望借此机会制造一些波澜，在此掀起惊喜。但正如您所说，密西西比州在数十年里尚未选出民主党籍的美国参议员。因此，这将是一场艰难的斗争。但我认为，这场竞争确实非常激烈。>> 作为一直在密西西比州关注政治的人，我想问您：您是否见过最近有一次类似的情况，即民主党的重量级人物大规模前来支持，就像现在这样？
AND I THINK THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS HOPING TO SORT OF SEIZE ON THAT AND CAUSE AN UPSET HERE. BUT AS YOU SAID, MISSISSIPPI HAS NOT ELECTED A DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATOR IN DECADES. SO IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE. BUT I THINK THAT IT IS IT IS VERY COMPETITIVE. >> I WILL ASK YOU THIS AS SOMEONE WHO'S COVERED WHO'S COVERING POLITICS THERE IN MISSISSIPPI, HAVE YOU SEEN A RECENT RACE WHERE YOU'VE HAD AN INFLUX OF BIG NAMES FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY COMING DOWN LIKE THIS?
也就是说，是否曾有其他选举也获得过类似的关注？>> 嗯，没有，没有像这样的情况。嗯，你知道，前总统奥巴马曾在六年前支持迈克·埃斯皮，当时他作为民主党候选人参选。嗯，除此之外，也有一些零星的背书，但可以肯定地说，没有，没有像这样的情况。>> 是的。那么，请带我们深入了解那些正在推动密西西比州选民在此次选举中做出选择的议题。
LIKE, HAVE HAS THERE BEEN OTHER RACES THAT HAVE GOTTEN SIMILAR ATTENTION? >> UH, NO, NOT LIKE THIS. UM, YOU KNOW, UH, FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA ENDORSED, UH, MIKE ESPY WHEN HE RAN AS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, UH, SIX YEARS AGO. UM, AND THERE HAVE BEEN, YOU KNOW, A FEW ENDORSEMENTS HERE AND THERE, BUT CERTAINLY, NO, NOT, NOT LIKE THIS. >> YEAH. AND SO TAKE PEOPLE INSIDE THE ISSUES THAT ARE THAT ARE DRIVING MISSISSIPPI VOTERS THIS GO AROUND.
您提到过这是一个农业州。农民确实正感受到，嗯，高昂的柴油成本以及各种关税和其他因素带来的负担。但到底是什么在推动这些，这些选举>> 是的。
YOU MENTIONED IT'S AN AGRICULTURAL STATE. FARMERS ARE CERTAINLY FEELING, UM, THE BURDEN OF REALLY EXPENSIVE DIESEL AMONG A VARIETY OF TARIFFS, A NUMBER OF THINGS. BUT WHAT'S DRIVING THIS, THESE RACES >> YEAH.
嗯，我想，卡兰竞选团队，嗯，正如你所说，他们希望，我想，利用人们对高昂商品成本、高昂汽油成本、高昂柴油成本的不满，嗯，关税，嗯，由此带来的不满，嗯，医疗保健和健康结果在密西西比州是一个重大问题。嗯，农村医院在这里正面临困境。他们已经挣扎了一段时间。嗯，我认为这些基本上是推动这里美国参议院选举辩论的主要问题。
UH, I THINK THE CALLAN CAMPAIGN, UM, AS YOU SAID, IS HOPING TO, I THINK CAPTURE ON THE DISSATISFACTION WITH HIGH, THE HIGH COST OF GOODS, HIGH COST OF GAS, HIGH COST OF DIESEL, UH, TARIFFS, UH, THE DISSATISFACTION FROM THAT, UM, UH, HEALTH CARE AND HEALTH OUTCOMES IS A HUGE ISSUE IN MISSISSIPPI. UM, RURAL HOSPITALS ARE STRUGGLING HERE. THEY'VE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE. AND, UH, I THINK THOSE ARE KIND OF THE MAIN ISSUES DRIVING, UH, THE, THE DEBATE HERE IN THE US SENATE RACE.
嗯，真的，我想，海德-史密斯阵营在另一方其实只是希望，我想，把斯科特·卡兰与全国民主党整体绑定起来，并制造，嗯，社会议题 >> 比如跨性别青年、跨性别权利。我认为这是一个议题，而且他们大概想把他和这些事情联系起来。嗯，但这些就是我们在这里密西西比州看到的一些，我想，主要问题。>> 说到实际的辩论，不是辩论的想法，而是实际的辩论。
UM, AND REALLY, I THINK THE, THE HYDE-SMITH CAMP ON THE OTHER END IS REALLY JUST HOPING TO, I THINK, TIE, UH, SCOTT CALLAN TO THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OVERALL AND MAKE, UH, SOCIAL ISSUES >> SUCH AS TRANS YOUTH, TRANS RIGHTS. I THINK AN ISSUE AND SORT OF TRY TO LINK HIM TO, I THINK THINGS LIKE THAT. UM, BUT THOSE ARE SOME OF THE, I THINK THE MAIN ISSUES THAT WE'VE SEEN HERE IN MISSISSIPPI. >> AND SPEAKING OF AN ACTUAL DEBATE, NOT THAT THE IDEA OF A DEBATE, BUT AN ACTUAL DEBATE.
他挑战海德-史密斯参议员进行三场辩论。据报道，她驳回了这个提议。他告诉CNN附属台，她的拒绝对选民不尊重。他称她为，引用，“胆小鬼”。嗯，你认为这是我们应该讨论的话题吗？我们在过去几周里已经和不同的政治专家多次讨论过这个问题。你认为这些辩论现在会对密西西比州选民产生影响，或者它们会产生影响吗？
HE CHALLENGED SENATOR HYDE-SMITH TO THREE DEBATES. SHE REPORTEDLY DISMISSED THAT OFFER. HE TOLD A CNN AFFILIATE THAT HER REFUSAL IS DISRESPECTFUL OF VOTERS. HE CALLED HER A, QUOTE, CHICKEN. UM, DO YOU THINK THIS IS SOMETHING WE TALK ABOUT? WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS A LOT WITH WITH DIFFERENT POLITICAL EXPERTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. DO YOU THINK THAT THAT THE DEBATES MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO MISSISSIPPI VOTERS RIGHT NOW, OR THAT THEY WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE? >> I MEAN, I THINK SO.
我的意思是，我想是的。我认为每个人总是想听候选人说更多，嗯，听他们在议题上的立场。嗯，你知道，我不认为我曾经遇到过，嗯，一个选民或读者说，不，我们不想要辩论。我们不想听候选人在议题上的立场。嗯，我认为我们会有机会进行辩论吗？不。嗯，但但我确实认为辩论总是能，嗯，产生影响，能够提供信息，并能够 inform 选民。>> 好的。最后一件事。你在选举之夜会关注什么？
I THINK EVERYONE ALWAYS WANTS TO HEAR MORE FROM THE CANDIDATES, UH, AND HEAR THEIR POSITION ON ISSUES. UM, YOU KNOW, I DON'T I DON'T THINK I'VE EVER MET, UM, A VOTER OR A READER WHO SAYS, NO, WE DON'T WANT TO HAVE A DEBATE. WE DON'T WANT TO HEAR WHERE CANDIDATES STAND ON THE ISSUES. UM, DO I THINK THAT WE'LL GET TO HAVE A DEBATE? NO. UM, BUT BUT I CERTAINLY I THINK A DEBATE CAN ALWAYS, UH, MAKE A DIFFERENCE AND CAN INFORM AND CAN INFORM VOTERS. >> ALL RIGHT. LAST THING. WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING FOR ON ELECTION NIGHT?
什么会成为关键。你会寻找什么来判断事情将往哪里发展？>> 是的。我的意思是，你知道，我认为那句老话，某种程度上，我认为它经常被说起，但它是真的。而那将是投票率。你知道，投票率决定了选举的结果。你知道，嗯，密西西比州投票率高的选举往往有利于共和党人。嗯，投票率低通常有利于民主党候选人。
WHAT'S GOING TO BE TELLING. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR TO TELL YOU WHERE THIS IS GOING? >> YEAH. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE OLD ADAGE AND IT'S SORT OF, I THINK A IT GETS SAID A LOT, BUT IT'S TRUE. AND THAT'S GOING TO BE TURNOUT. YOU KNOW, TURNOUT DRIVES THE RESULTS OF AN ELECTION. YOU KNOW, UH, HIGH TURNOUT RACES IN MISSISSIPPI TEND TO BENEFIT REPUBLICANS. UH, LOW TURNOUT USUALLY TENDS TO BENEFIT DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES.
我认为这就是这里需要关注的事情，嗯，是否有足够多的共和党选民对汽油价格高昂、食品成本高昂感到不满？嗯，你知道，他们对伊朗战争或伊朗的军事行动感到不满，他们会不会如此不满以至于只是待在家里不投票？嗯，我认为斯科特·卡兰所寻找的“完美风暴”是要看看他是否能够推动足够的黑人投票率，但同时也让白人共和党人如此不满，以至于他们会待在家里不去投票。
AND I THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE THE, THE THING TO WATCH FOR HERE, UH, IS ARE THERE ENOUGH REPUBLICAN VOTERS WHO ARE SO DISSATISFIED WITH THE HIGH COST OF GAS, THE HIGH COST OF GROCERIES? UH, AND, YOU KNOW, DISSATISFIED WITH THE IRAN WAR OR THE MILITARY ACTION IN IRAN, ARE THEY GOING TO BE SO DISSATISFIED THAT THEY JUST STAY HOME? UH, I THINK THE PERFECT STORM THAT SCOTT CALLAN IS LOOKING FOR IS TO SEE IF HE CAN DRIVE BLACK TURNOUT ENOUGH, BUT THAT ALSO WHITE REPUBLICANS WILL BE SO DISSATISFIED THAT THEY WILL STAY AT HOME AND NOT VOTE.
因此我认为，在关键选举中的投票率，嗯，是我将要关注的事情，嗯，是的。以及看看是否。
AND SO I THINK TURNOUT IN KEY RACES, UH, IS SOMETHING THAT I'M GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR TO SEE, UH, YEAH. AND TO SEE IF