研究表明，为英国住宅进行保温并投资热泵，比钻探新油田更能降低生活成本、创造就业机会并提振英国经济。
Insulating Britain's homes and investing in heat pumps would do more to cut the cost of living, create jobs and boost the UK's economy than drilling for new oil, research suggests.
智库E3G的研究显示，政府价值150亿英镑的温暖住宅计划目前因部长们寻求节省预算而面临削减威胁，该计划每年可为英国各地家庭节约10亿英镑的能源账单，重点惠及低收入群体。该计划还将每年为经济带来16亿英镑的提振，并在数千家小企业中创造约5万个新岗位。
The government's £15bn warm homes plan, currently under threat of cuts as ministers seek budget savings would slash £1bn a year from household energy bills across the UK, concentrated on those on low incomes, according to research by the thinktank E3G. It would also provide a £1.6bn yearly boost to the economy, and about 50,000 new jobs spread across thousands of small businesses.
分析发现，设在设得兰群岛以西的玫瑰银行油田将创造约1100个直接和间接岗位，这些岗位将集中在北海及两家公司中，其中一家是海外投资者埃克沃能源（Equinor）。
The Rosebank oilfield, west of Shetland, would create about 1,100 direct and indirect jobs, the analysis found. The jobs would be concentrated in the North Sea and in two companies, one of them – Equinor – an overseas investor.
能源部长米亚塔·法恩布勒（Miatta Fahnbulleh）周三表示，是否批准北海鹰鸦气田（Jackdaw）的决定“即将到来”，而对玫瑰银行油田的决定则需要稍长时间。
A decision on whether to give the green light to the Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea was "imminent", the energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, said on Wednesday. A decision on Rosebank would take a little longer, she said.
工党在其2024年大选宣言中承诺，将停止新的石油和天然气许可证发放，但鹰鸦和玫瑰银行可能成为例外，因为它们已进入许可流程。
Labour promised in its 2024 election manifesto to halt new licensing for oil and gas, but Jackdaw and Rosebank could be exceptions because they were already in the licensing system.
埃克沃能源此前估计，鹰鸦和玫瑰银行两个项目合并将在峰值时期创造3500个岗位。
Equinor previously estimated 3,500 jobs would be created at peak for Jackdaw and Rosebank combined.
专家们多次指出，新的北海石油和天然气无法降低燃料价格或缓解英国因伊朗战争而产生的任何供应限制，因为石油和天然气是在国际市场上交易的。
Experts have repeatedly pointed out that new North Sea oil and gas would not bring down fuel prices or ease any supply constraints on the UK arising from the Iran war, because oil and gas are sold on international markets.
一些钻探的支持者认为，钻探将为英国带来经济提振，并为政府带来税收收入，这是发放许可证的理由。但世界自然基金会（WWF）和倡导组织Uplift的相关研究表明，鉴于钻探公司可预期的让步，税收收入可能会有限。虽然Rosebank油田对其支持者——埃克沃尼尔（Equinor）、壳牌（Shell）和伊萨卡能源（Ithaca Energy）——在其25年寿命期内的总利润可能达到15亿英镑，但英国政府可能因税收减免和激励措施而面临2.58亿英镑的潜在损失。
Some proponents of drilling argue that the economic boost to the UK and tax revenues for the government are reasons to grant licences. But related research by WWF and the campaigning group Uplift shows that tax revenues are likely to be limited, given the concessions that drillers can expect While the total profits from Rosebank for its backers, Equinor, Shell and Ithaca Energy, could be £1.5bn over its 25-year lifespan, the UK government faces a potential loss of £258m through tax breaks and incentives.
北海的税收收入在2025-26财年约为40亿英镑，但上游税收减免和支持措施总额估计达到32.6亿英镑。
Tax revenues from the North Sea were about £4bn in 2025-26, but upstream tax relief and support measures amounted to an estimated £3.26bn.
由于北海是一个衰退速度较快的盆地，钻探带来的税收收入预计将在2030年降至约1亿英镑。钻井平台的退役成本也是一个重要因素：随着北海基础设施的拆除，纳税人可能需要承担120亿英镑的费用。
As the North Sea is a basin in steep decline, tax revenues from drilling are projected to fall to about £100m by 2030. Decommissioning costs for drilling platforms are also a major factor: taxpayers are likely to be asked for £12bn as the North Sea's infrastructure is dismantled.
根据E3G的估计，“温暖家园”计划将使多达500万户住房得到保温隔热，并将进一步吸引150亿英镑的私人投资。这些投资将遍布全国，而非集中在某一地区，这符合安迪·伯纳姆（Andy Burnham）关于“每个邮政编码都实现经济增长”的承诺。
warm homes plan under which up to 5m homes would be insulated, would draw in a further £15bn in private investment, according to E3G, which would be spread across the country rather than concentrated in one area, in line with Andy Burnham's pledge for economic growth "in every postcode".
E3G还估计，全面实施“温暖家园”计划将使GDP提升0.08%，而AI模型显示，Rosebank油田在其整个生命周期内平均将使GDP增加约0.025%，这一估计基于油价从近期高点回归至每桶70美元的假设。如果英国纳税人承担退役费用，这将抵消任何正面影响。
E3G also estimates that delivering the warm homes plan in full would boost GDP by 0.08%, while AI modelling suggests Rosebank would add about 0.025% on average through its lifetime, assuming the average oil price returning to $70 a barrel from recent highs. If the UK taxpayer paid for decommissioning, this would outweigh any positive impact.
E3G的高级研究员詹姆斯·休·戴森（James Huw Dyson）表示：“当第一波寒潮来袭时，公众肯定不会感谢政府削减住宅的保温措施，反而会指责政府给予大型石油企业税收优惠，鼓励它们开采那些会加剧能源污染、从而导致居民账单上涨的能源。如果政府真的想解决民众的生活成本问题，并在全国范围内进行投资，就应该把重点放在提高住宅的保温性能以及推广清洁能源上。这样做既能降低居民的能源费用，同时还能为英国创造更多的就业机会。”周四，十个主要的工会联合致信政府，反对批准Rosebank油田的开采许可。
James Huw Dyson, a senior researcher at E3G, said: "When the first cold snap rolls in, the public aren't going to thank the government for cutting home insulation while giving big oil tax breaks to drill for polluting energy that keeps our bills high. If the government is serious about tackling the cost of living, and investing across the country, it should focus its attention on insulating homes and rolling out clean energy, which will cut bills and create good jobs across Britain at the same time." Ten major unions wrote to the government on Thursday to oppose granting a licence to the Rosebank oilfield.
许多工党议员也反对这一决定；此外，还有600位科学家在夏季致信政府部长，敦促政府重新考虑这一决策。
Scores of Labour MPs also oppose the move and 600 scientists wrote to ministers over the summer urging a rethink.
代表英国能源行业的Energy UK公司的首席执行官达拉·维亚斯（Dhara Vyas）指出：“我们需要政府坚持其推动电气化发展的目标。如果政府削弱‘温暖住宅计划’（即提高住宅保温性能的计划），或者进一步修改‘零排放汽车’的相关政策，那么这会给长期处于动荡中的能源市场带来混乱的信号。这些能源企业很难再次扩大生产规模；遗憾的是，已经有太多企业被迫关闭了。”
Dhara Vyas, the chief executive of Energy UK, which represents the energy industry, said: "We need government to stick to its ambitions on electrification. Watering down the warm homes plan or making further changes to the zero emissions vehicle mandate sends mixed signals to a market that has been in a state of flux for far too long – these businesses cannot easily ramp up production again, and sadly for too many have already had to close."
英国能源安全与净零排放部（Department for Energy Security and Net Zero）拒绝就E3G的研究结果或‘温暖住宅计划’的未来发表任何评论。
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero declined to comment on E3G's findings or the future of the warm homes plan.
Equinor与壳牌合资成立的Adura公司发言人表示：“分析显示，批准Rosebank项目及其他北海石油开发计划，将在2026年至2035年间为英国经济创造353亿英镑的价值。仅Rosebank项目就涉及87亿英镑的私营部门投资，其中四分之三将在英国境内支出；与Jackdaw项目合计，未来十年将带来41亿英镑的额外税收。”这些数字不仅涵盖了公司除Rosebank和Jackdaw之外的更广泛业务，还基于对更广泛供应链以及员工消费作为经济收益的假设，而这些假设存在不确定性。
A spokesperson for Adura, the joint venture between Equinor and Shell that owns Jackdaw and Rosebank, said: "Analysis has shown that approving Rosebank and other planned North Sea oil developments would support £35.3bn in UK economic value between 2026 and 2035. Rosebank alone represents private sector investment of £8.7bn, three quarters of which will be spent in the UK, and together with Jackdaw will contribute £4.1bn in additional tax revenue over the next decade." These figures take in the company's wider operations beyond Rosebank and Jackdaw, and also make assumptions about the wider supply chain and the spending of employees as economic benefits, which are uncertain.
在税收方面，这些估算并未考虑可用的大规模税收减免，其金额估计超过24亿英镑。与英国财政部通常的做法相反，Adura的估算似乎并未将未来收入的贴现率纳入考量。
On the tax take, they do not take account of the large tax reliefs available, estimated at more than £2.4bn. Contrary to standard HM Treasury practice, Adura's estimates do not appear to factor in a discount rate for future income.