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共和党延续数十年的连胜纪录突然面临风险Decades-old GOP winning streaks are suddenly at risk

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10月4日,民主党参议员候选人亚当·汉密尔顿在堪萨斯州莱内克萨进行竞选活动。照片:Arin Yoon/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesDemocratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton campaigns in Lenexa, Kan., on Oct. 4. Photo: Arin Yoon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

民主党人在美国传统共和党腹地的选举中表现出人意外的竞争力,这正在威胁共和党自上世纪30年代以来的连胜纪录。

Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s. Why it matters:

为何重要:民主党人希望通过在堪萨斯州、得克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等地结束政治荒漠,从而在长期被视为禁区的地区取得突破。堪萨斯州 - 1932年

Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory. Kansas - 1932

  • 堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall,R-堪萨斯州)正面临来自民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿(Adam Hamilton)的出人意料的激烈挑战,汉密尔顿是一名卫理公会牧师,其筹款额显著高于现任共和党参议员。

• Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who has significantly outraised the incumbent GOP senator.

  • 两人在民意调查中势均力敌,Cook Political Report将此次竞选评为势均力敌。

• The two are neck-and-neck in the polls, and Cook Political Report rates the race a tossup.

  • 自乔治·麦克吉尔(George McGill)在1932年连任以来,民主党人尚未在堪萨斯州赢得过美国参议院席位。得克萨斯州 - 1988年

• A Democrat hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since George McGill was reelected in 1932. Texas - 1988

  • 德克萨斯州民主党众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)正在参议院选举中对共和党籍得州司法部长肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton,R)构成真正的威胁。塔拉里科在民意调查中通常以个位数低分领先。Cook将此次竞选评为势均力敌。

• Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is giving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) a real run for his money in the Senate race. Talarico generally leads in polls by low single digits. Cook rates it a tossup.

  • 在最近的选举周期中,得克萨斯州一直是民主党人的心碎之地。他们上次在该州赢得参议院席位是在1988年,当时是洛伊德·本森(Lloyd Bentsen)。南卡罗来纳州 - 1998年

• Texas has been a consistent heartbreaker for Democrats in recent cycles. They last won a Senate seat in the state with Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. South Carolina - 1998

  • 民意调查一再显示,共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆(Darline Graham)在领先民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯(Annie Andrews)仅几个百分点。格雷厄姆是在其哥哥林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)于7月去世后被任命接替其参议员席位的。

• Polls have routinely shown Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham following his death in July, leading Democrat Annie Andrews by just a few percentage points.

  • 安德鲁斯与其他民主党参议院候选人一样,筹集了巨额资金,而格雷厄姆作为政治新手则举步维艰。尽管如此,Cook仍将此次竞选评为“可能共和党获胜”。

• Andrews, like other Democratic Senate candidates, has raised colossal sums, while Graham has struggled as a political neophyte. Still, Cook rates the race as "likely Republican."

  • 自长期民主党人弗里茨·霍林斯(Fritz Hollings)在1998年最后一次连任以来,南卡罗来纳州在每次美国参议院选举中都投票给共和党。

• The state has gone Republican in every U.S. Senate election since longtime Democrat Fritz Hollings was last reelected in 1998. Between the lines:

背后原因:如果民主党人特罗伊·杰克逊(Troy Jackson)在下个月击败缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins),他将成为自1988年以来首位在缅因州赢得美国参议院席位的民主党人。

Democrat Troy Jackson if he defeats Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine next month, would be the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Maine since 1988.

  • 这是一个技术性的问题:独立参议员安格斯·金自2012年首次当选以来一直与民主党人结盟。州长选举

• That's a bit of a technicality: Independent Sen. Angus King has caucused with Democrats since he was first elected in 2012. Gubernatorial races

  • 自1990年安·理查兹以来,德克萨斯州尚未选出民主党州长,但民主党人吉娜·希诺霍萨正与共和党现任州长格雷格·阿博特展开激烈竞争,库克将其评为“倾向共和党”。

• Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990, but Democrat Gina Hinojosa is in a tight race with Republican incumbent Greg Abbott that Cook rates as "leans Republican."

  • 同样,民主党人大卫·乔利也希望在与共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳斯的选举中实现逆转,库克也将该竞选评为“倾向共和党”。民主党人在1994年曾赢得佛罗里达州州长选举,此后一直未能再胜。

• Democrat David Jolly is also hoping for an upset against GOP Rep. Byron Donalds in a race Cook also rates as "leans Republican." Democrats narrowly won the Florida governorship in 1994 and have lost ever since.

  • 乔治亚州的凯西娅·兰斯·博托姆斯和阿拉斯加州的乔纳森·克赖斯-汤普金斯都在争取成为各自州自1998年以来首位当选的民主党州长。库克将乔治亚州的竞选评为势均力敌,将阿拉斯加州的竞选评为“倾向民主党”。众议院选举

• Georgia's Keisha Lance Bottoms and Alaska's Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins are both vying to be the first Democrats elected governor in their states since 1998. Cook rates Georgia as a tossup and Alaska as "leans Democratic." House races

  • 民主党从未赢得内华达州第2选区,该选区成立于1983年。虽然其形状随时间变化,但一直位于该州北部农村地区。

• Democrats have never won Nevada's 2nd District, which was created in 1983. It has changed shape over time but has always been anchored in the rural north half of the state.

  • 民主党认为他们在前州议会多数党领袖特蕾莎·贝尼特兹-汤普森身上有一位强有力的候选人,而在前空军中校戴夫·弗利波身上有一位较弱的对手。

• Democrats feel they have a strong candidate in former state Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson and a weak opponent in former Air Force lieutenant colonel Dave Flippo.

  • 该党还对蒙大拿州第1选区持乐观态度,他们希望前烟跳队员萨姆·福斯特的民粹主义吸引力能帮助他在对阵共和党提名者、退伍军人兼广播主持人亚伦·弗林特的竞选中获胜。民主党自1994年以来尚未在蒙大拿州赢得过众议院席位。

• The party is also bullish about Montana's 1st District, where they hope the populist appeal of former smokejumper Sam Forstag will help him prevail over the GOP nominee Aaron Flint, a veteran and radio host. Democrats haven't won a U.S. House seat in Montana since 1994.

库克评级内华达州第2选区被评为“可能共和党”,蒙大拿州第1选区被评为势均力敌。

Cook rates Nevada's 2nd Distric as "likely Republican" and Montana's 1st District as a tossup.

另一方:共和党也在一些他们已有一段时间未赢得的选举中具有竞争力。

The other side: Republicans are also competitive in a handful of races where they haven't won in quite a while.

  • 共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯正在密歇根州与民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德展开激烈的美国参议院竞争。如果当选,他将成为自1994年共和党浪潮以来首位从该州当选的共和党参议员。

• Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers is locked in a tight U.S. Senate race in Michigan with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. He would be the first Republican elected to the Senate from the state since the 1994 GOP wave.

  • 俄勒冈州民主党州长蒂娜·科特克面临与共和党候选人克里斯蒂娜·德拉赞的激烈竞争,后者若当选将成为自1982年以来首位当选该州州长的共和党人。

• Democratic Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek faces a close race with Republican Christine Drazan, who would be the first Republican elected governor of the state since 1982.

  • 俄勒冈州基本上是共和党版的得克萨斯州:自2002年以来,共和党在州长选举中一直以个位数差距落败。

• Oregon is essentially the GOP's version of Texas: Republicans have lost by single digits in gubernatorial elections since 2002.

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