
印度卢比料将在周一开盘时因油价高企承受压力,央行的美元抛售预计将支撑货币并使其维持在交易员认为的央行软性防线附近。
The Indian rupee is likely to be under pressure from high oil prices at Monday's open, with the central bank's dollar sales expected to support the currency and keep it near what traders perceive to be the central bank's soft defence line.
交易员称,卢比料将在94.92至94.98区间开盘,此前周五收于每美元94.96。
The rupee is expected to open in a 94.92 to 94.98 range, per traders, having settled at 94.96 to the dollar on Friday.
卢比近期在每美元95点附近波动,曾短暂突破该水平但难以维持。随后跌破该水平后,多次遇到阻力。
The rupee has oscillated around the 95-per-dollar mark in recent sessions, briefly strengthening past the level before struggling to sustain it. Subsequent declines past that level have repeatedly met resistance.
一位银行外汇交易员表示,这一模式表明印度储备银行可能正在抛售美元以限制汇率跌破95点的弱势,使该水平成为货币的重要短期支撑。
The pattern suggests that the Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to limit weakness past the 95 level, making the level an important near-term support for the currency, a currency trader at a bank said.
卢比上周录得近四年来最佳周表现,这得益于印度储备银行支持货币的措施以及现货市场反复的美元抛售。
The rupee last week posted its best weekly performance in nearly four years, buoyed by the RBI’s measures to support the currency and repeated dollar sales in the spot market.
印度储备银行加大了干预力度以托住卢比,而卢比仍受油价和资本外流压力。
The RBI has stepped up its intervention to prop up the rupee, which remains under pressure from oil prices and capital outflows.
央行通过加大卢比防御力度以及买入/卖出掉期操作,这一情况在外汇储备中得到反映。该国储备自9月第一周创下历史高点以来已减少近600亿美元,至10月9日降至7260亿美元。
The central bank's stepped-up defence of the rupee alongside sell/buy swaps is reflected in foreign exchange reserves. The country’s reserves have shed nearly $60 billion since hitting an all-time high in the first week of September, falling to $726 billion through October 9.
油价仍是卢比的关键压力点,布伦特原油周五短暂升至每桶110美元以上,为自5月以来首次。周一油价小幅回落,布伦特原油交易价格约为每桶108美元,原因是美国总统特朗普免除了对俄罗斯的新制裁及对俄罗斯商品的关税,这可能为增加俄罗斯燃料出口铺平道路。
Oil remains a key pressure point for the rupee, with Brent crude briefly climbing above $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May. Prices dipped slightly on Monday, with Brent trading around $108 a barrel after US President Donald Trump waived new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on good from Russia, potentially paving the way for increased Russian fuel exports.
分析师和投资者普遍认为,除非油价回落,否则印度储备银行支持卢比的努力只能起到有限作用。
There is broad consensus among analysts and investors that the RBI's efforts to support the rupee will go only so far unless oil prices retreat.