在最激烈的众议院和参议院选举中,共和党人已在选举日前敲定了他们的收官论点:民主党过于极端,不应被赋予对国会的控制权。他们正通过大量电视广告和特朗普总统的竞选演讲,敦促对油价和更广泛的经济状况感到愤怒的选民将不满情绪从执政党转移开。为论证这一点,共和党人正重新将注意力聚焦在一系列文化议题上,这些议题在2024年损害了民主党,其中包括女性体育中的跨性别运动员、边境安全以及民主党想要实行社会主义的说法。
Republicans across the most competitive House and Senate races have settled on a closing pitch ahead of Election Day: Democrats are too extreme to be given control of Congress. It is an effort, pressed in a flood of TV ads and in President Trump’s rally speeches, to urge voters who are angry about gas prices and broader economic conditions to redirect their frustration away from the party in power. To make their case, Republicans are calling renewed attention to a set of cultural issues that hurt the Democratic Party in 2024, among them transgender athletes in women’s sports, border security and the claim that Democrats want socialism.
民主党人则试图通过在这些议题上站在特朗普及其党派一边,而非最初推动这些理念的进步派人士一边,来削弱这一攻击。 — SLF PAC针对民主党参议员候选人谢罗德·布朗的广告。“毫无疑问,非法越境人数大幅下降,毫无疑问,这是因为特朗普总统,”得克萨斯州民主党州长候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨在一次电视采访中谈到非法移民时说道。
Democrats are trying to blunt the attack by siding with Trump and his party on some of these issues over progressives who first propelled the ideas. An SLF PAC ad against Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown. — SLF PAC“There is no question that crossings are way down, and there is no question it is because of President Trump,” Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor in Texas, said of illegal immigration in a TV interview.“I don’t support biological men playing women’s sports,” says Annie Andrews, the Democratic Senate candidate in South Carolina, in a direct-to-camera TV ad.“No way do we defund the police,” says Roy Cooper, the Democrats’ Senate nominee in North Carolina, in an ad.
“我不支持生物学上的男性参加女子体育比赛,”南卡罗来纳州民主党参议员候选人安妮·安德鲁斯在一则直接面对镜头的电视广告中说。“我们绝不会削减警察经费,”北卡罗来纳州民主党参议员候选人罗伊·库珀在一则广告中说。“你值得感到安全,这与政治无关。”共和党人试图通过将民主党描绘为脱离主流,来吸引选民的党派冲动,因为民调显示许多选民缺乏投票动力。
“You deserve to feel safe, and there’s nothing political about that.”In casting Democrats as out of the mainstream, Republicans are trying to appeal to their voters’ partisan impulses as polls find that many are unmotivated to vote.
他们还担心,得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿和堪萨斯州的罗杰·马歇尔等共和党参议员候选人所获得的支持度,低于该党的州长候选人。这表明一些共和党人可能在这些参议院选举中支持民主党候选人,可能会放弃投票选参议员,或者完全不参与投票。
They also worry that GOP Senate candidates, such as Ken Paxton in Texas and Roger Marshall in Kansas, are drawing lower levels of support than are the party’s gubernatorial candidates. That suggests that some Republicans are backing the Democrat in those Senate races, might skip voting for senator or sit out the election altogether.
在密歇根等州,民主党人的参议院候选人也面临着类似的问题。特朗普在本周俄亥俄州的一场集会上说:“你可以投票给那些极左翼的民主党人,让他们掠夺你的财富、将你的税收提高5万亿美元、破坏你的国家边境。”这种言论已成为他近期竞选演讲中的常见内容。相比之下,他强调:“如果你希望自己的口袋里能有更多的钱,就必须投票给共和党人。”
Democrats have similar problems with their Senate candidates in states such as Michigan.“You can vote for the radical left Dumocrat communists to loot your wealth, raise your taxes by $5 trillion, annihilate your borders,” Trump said at a rally this week in Ohio, in what has become a familiar element of his recent campaign speeches. By contrast, he said, “You can defeat the Dumocrat communists and vote for more money in your pockets…If you want that, you must vote Republican.”‘God is nonbinary’Republicans in some states have leaned heavily on claims that their opponents are out of step with voters by favoring transgender rights.
在某些州,共和党人极力利用这样的论点来攻击他们的对手——他们认为对手支持跨性别者权利的做法与选民的意愿相悖。在俄亥俄州,特朗普批评了民主党的参议院候选人谢罗德·布朗,称:“他支持男性参加女子体育比赛,还支持对未成年人进行跨性别手术。”布朗则表示自己反对让跨性别女性参加女子体育比赛,并认为关于未成年人跨性别医疗护理的问题早已有明确的法律规定。“在俄亥俄州,对儿童进行跨性别手术是违法的,”他的电视广告中这样写道。
In Ohio, Trump criticized the Democrats’ Senate nominee, Sherrod Brown, saying: “He wants to see men playing in women’s sports. He wants to see transgender mutilation of your children.”Brown has said he opposes transgender women in girls’ sports, and that the question of transgender care for minors is settled law. “In Ohio, it’s against the law to perform transgender surgeries on kids,” one of his TV ads says.
“我确实发现,关于我对手谈论跨性别议题的报道比我在选区听到的关于其他问题的报道要多得多,”佛罗里达州民主党众议院候选人贝尔·道尔顿说。他表示,选民们最关心的问题包括生活成本、医疗费用以及伊朗战争。
“That’s right, it’s illegal.”An from Friends of Sherrod Brown. — Friends of Sherrod Brown“I do see far more headlines of my opponent talking about trans issues than the things I hear about across the district,” said Bale Dalton, the Democratic House nominee in a Florida district.
一家共和党超级政治行动委员会已斥资5900万美元投放三则广告,攻击德克萨斯州民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。这些广告指控他支持为未成年人提供性别转换治疗服务。就投入的广告费用而言,这三则广告在所有众议院及参议院竞选活动中均位列前五。过去六周内,该委员会又投入逾1000万美元制作第四则广告,其中再次引用了塔拉里科的言论:“生物学上的性别远不止两种”,“上帝是非二元性别的存在”。
He ticked off the cost of living, healthcare costs and the war in Iran as issues he hears most from voters. Just since Sept. 1, a Republican super PAC has spent $59 million on three ads attacking James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, for allegedly backing gender transition care for minors, ranking those ads in the top five across all House and Senate races for the amount of money spent airing them.A fourth ad, backed by more than $10 million in spending in the past six weeks, reprises Talarico’s statements that “there are many more than two biological sexes” and that “God is nonbinary.”
广告结尾则打出标语:“詹姆斯·塔拉里科:为‘他们’代言,而非为你服务”——这一措辞正是特朗普在2024年大选中用来攻击其民主党对手的经典话术。
It ends with the statement, “James Talarico: For they/them, not for you”—reprising a line that Trump used effectively against his Democratic opponent in 2024.
塔拉里科本人表示,他支持在全国范围内禁止为未成年人实施性别确认手术,但认为其他相关治疗应由父母与医生共同决定。本周他在接受CNN采访时称,由于上帝无法用人类的分类标准来界定,因此他关于“非二元性别之神”的言论在神学层面并无争议。
另一则由MAGA Inc.制作的攻击德克萨斯州民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的广告。
Talarico says he supports a national ban on gender-affirming surgeries for minors but believes parents and doctors should determine other care. Appearing on CNN this week, he said that God can’t be defined using human categories, so that his comment about a nonbinary deity was theologically uncontroversial.A MAGA Inc. ad against Democrat James Talarico, a Senate nominee in Texas. — MAGA Inc.A Talarico for Texas Senate . — Talarico for Texas SenateMany other Democrats in competitive races have sought to distance themselves from the debates over trans rights that were prominent several years ago.
此外,众多身处激烈选情中的民主党人正试图与几年前引发广泛讨论的跨性别权益议题保持距离。正在竞选爱荷华州州长的罗布·桑德、俄亥俄州州长候选人艾米·阿克顿以及北卡罗来纳州众议员唐·戴维斯均声称,各自所在州早已对跨性别者参与体育运动及未成年人接受性别确认治疗作出了法律规制,因此该议题早已有了定论。
Rob Sand, running for governor in Iowa, as well as gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton in Ohio and Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina, have all said that their states have regulated transgender participation in sports or gender-affirming care for minors, and so the matter is settled law.
这些举措旨在削弱民主党支持者的热情。除特朗普外,其他共和党领袖也试图将民主党描绘成脱离主流的群体,有时甚至借助民主社会主义者的言论来达到这一目的。
Blunting Democratic enthusiasmIn addition to Trump, other GOP leaders are trying to portray Democrats as outside the mainstream, sometimes drawing on statements from Democratic socialists.
“民主党推出的候选人声称我们要摧毁美国的生活方式,还要破坏核心家庭结构,”副总统J.D.万斯上个月在爱荷华州说道,并补充道:“今年秋天参选的一些民主党人简直就是疯子。”在佛罗里达州,共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔在最近一则抨击其民主党对手埃利奥特·罗德里格斯的广告中,展示了纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼、参议员伯尼·桑德斯以及其他民主社会主义者的照片。该广告称,罗德里格斯支持那些企图“用社会主义经济取代自由市场经济”的民主党人。
“The Democrats are running candidates who say we need to destroy the American way of life and want to destroy the nuclear family,” Vice President JD Vance said last month in Iowa, adding: “Some of the Democrats running this fall, they are out-and-out lunatics.”In Florida, GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar shows images of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) and other Democratic socialists in a recent ad attacking Eliott Rodriguez, her Democratic challenger. The ad says Rodriguez supports Democrats who are bent on “replacing our free market with a socialist economy.”
罗德里格斯在接受采访时称自己就是自由企业制度的受益者,并提到他的父亲作为古巴移民,曾在布朗克斯区经营一家杂货店。“我坚决反对社会主义,”罗德里格斯说道。他还指出,萨拉萨尔及其他共和党人试图将民主党人描绘成极端分子,“这是因为他们无法回答选民最关心的问题:‘你们打算如何解决经济问题和生活成本上涨的问题?’”
Rodriguez, in an interview, called himself a product of the free enterprise system and said his father, a Cuban immigrant, was a businessman who ran a bodega in the Bronx. “I denounce socialism,” Rodriguez said. He added that Salazar and other Republicans were trying to portray Democrats as extreme “because they have no answers to the questions voters are asking, which are, ‘What are you going to do about this economy and the cost of living?’ ”One factor helping the GOP effort: Voters in battleground districts have a worse opinion of the Democratic Party than the GOP, some polling shows, suggesting that voters in the most competitive races might be receptive to the Republican claims.
一些民意调查显示,在关键选区,选民对民主党的甚至超过共和党,这意味着这些地区的选民或许更容易接受共和党的宣传主张。共和党民调专家韦斯·安德森表示:“正因如此,打出‘千万别把国会的控制权交给对方’这样的口号对我们最为有利。不过这是否足以削弱民主党人的热情,目前还不得而知。”2010年时,美国刚刚经历金融危机的重创,时任总统巴拉克·奥巴马曾呼吁选民在中期选举中继续支持民主党,称共和党人把国家经济搞得一团糟。然而最终,民主党在众议院失去了63个席位。
“For that reason, finishing with an argument that says ‘Don’t give the other side the keys to Congress’ is our best option,” said GOP pollster Wes Anderson. “Whether that’s going to be enough to blunt Democratic enthusiasm remains to be seen.”In 2010, with the nation still smarting from a financial crisis, then-President Barack Obama urged voters to stick with his party in midterm elections, rather than return the keys to a Republican Party that he said had driven the national car into a ditch. His party wound up losing 63 House seats that year.
一些分析人士指出,这反映出在选民做出投票决定时,很难让他们回顾过去的情况,而他们往往只会对当下的状况作出反应。民主党战略顾问查克·罗查说道:“我负责协助22场众议院选举以及多场参议院选举的竞选工作。在每一场竞争激烈的选举中,民主党都主打物价上涨与腐败问题;而共和党则把重点放在跨性别群体及社会主义议题上。”
Some analysts say that shows it’s hard to persuade voters to look back in time when they make their voting choices rather than react to current conditions.“I’m in 22 congressional races and several Senate races, and in every competitive race the Democratic message is about costs and corruption, and the Republican message is about trans and socialism,” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist.
他认为,今年共和党的宣传策略不太可能奏效,不过也不能完全排除这种可能性。“只有当民众衣食无忧、汽油价格维持在每加仑2美元左右时,社会与文化类议题才能发挥作用,”他说道,“这类策略偶尔能奏效,但今年显然不是这样的时机。不过凡事皆有可能——我曾断言唐纳德·特朗普绝无可能当选,可他最终还是连任两次。”
He said he thinks it is unlikely the GOP pitch works this year, though he can’t rule it out.“The social and cultural stuff only works when everyone’s belly is full and gas is $2 a gallon,” he said. “It works at times, and this ain’t one of them. But there’s always a chance. I said Donald Trump would never be elected, and he won two times.”
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