小麦在周末俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的袭击后上涨，因为这使得重启两大生产国出口的任何协议变得越来越不可能。
Wheat rose after weekend strikes between Russia and Ukraine made any deal to restart exports from the two major producers increasingly unlikely.
芝加哥最活跃的小麦合约在周一上涨了高达0.8%，此前该合约在上周跌至去年8月以来的最低日内价格。这紧随其后的是俄罗斯可能通过波罗的海港口出口部分谷物的迹象，以及主要出口国包括澳大利亚可能在几周内迎来大丰收的报道，这缓解了对供应的担忧。
The most-active wheat contract in Chicago rose by as much as 0.8% on Monday, after falling to its lowest intraday price since August last week. That followed signs that Russia may be exporting some of its crop through Baltic ports and reports that major exporters including Australia may be seeing a large harvest within weeks, easing concerns about supply.
然而，俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的紧张局势升级引发了对黑海地区小麦出口近期可用性的怀疑，表明全球供应可能趋紧，因为买家正在寻求紧急替代品。乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基周日表示，对乌克兰变电站的袭击导致数万人断电，而俄罗斯表示应急服务正在努力扑灭圣彼得堡一个油库的火灾。
However, renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine have raised doubts over any near-term availability of wheat exports through the Black Sea, signaling tighter global supply as buyers seek urgent replacements. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday attacks on Ukraine’s substations had left tens of thousands without power, while Russia said emergency services were working to put out a fire at an oil terminal in St. Petersburg.
在接受彭博社采访时，泽连斯基表示他正在与土耳其、埃及和印度讨论通过黑海建立出口走廊的可能性，但俄罗斯目前反对这一想法。
In an interview with Bloomberg, Zelenskyy said he was talking to Turkey, Egypt and India about the possibility of a corridor for exports through the Black Sea, but Russia opposes the idea at present.
“由于需求强劲以替代黑海供应，澳大利亚的价格正得到支撑，”澳大利亚联邦银行农业经济学家丹尼斯·沃兹涅斯基表示。该国五个最大谷物港口的小麦平均价格在周一短暂触及自2024年6月以来的最高水平，这得益于替代小麦的出口需求增长。“这完全还是关于乌克兰和俄罗斯，”他说。
“Our prices in Australia are being supported because of how strong demand will be, or is, to substitute out the Black Sea,” said Dennis Voznesenski, agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. An average of wheat prices at five of the country’s largest grain ports briefly touched its highest since June 2024 on Monday, off the back of growing export demand for replacement wheat. “It’s all about Ukraine and Russia still,” he said.