美国选民将于11月3日举行中期选举，这些选举将决定在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期的最后两年里，谁将掌控国会。
Americans vote on November 3 in midterm elections that will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term.
民主党需要在众议院和参议院中各自净赢得4个席位，才能扭转共和党目前218对214以及53对47的微弱多数优势。
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the US House of Representatives and US Senate to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities.
外界普遍预计民主党将赢得众议院的控制权，但参议院的胜负仍难以预料。
Democrats are widely expected to win control of the House but the Senate is too close to call.
由于特朗普的支持率处于其总统任期内的最低水平，且民调显示民主党占据优势，这次选举可能会改变华盛顿的权力格局。不过，即使民主党赢得其中一个或两个议院的控制权，特朗普仍保留着否决权以及广泛的行政权力，这限制了民主党通过重大立法的能力。
With Trump's approval rating at the lowest of his presidency and polls favoring Democrats, the election could shift power in Washington. Yet even if Democrats win one or both chambers, Trump would retain veto power and broad executive authority, limiting Democrats' ability to enact major legislation.
路透社采访的分析师、战略专家和经济学家表示，无论选举结果如何，2027年关于提高债务上限和政府资金问题的争论很可能会再次爆发。两位经济学家预测，2027年市场及投资者将面临动荡。选举官员还警告称，特朗普政府可能会试图干预选举进程。
Analysts, strategists and economists interviewed by Reuters said fights over raising the debt ceiling and government funding are likely in 2027 regardless of the election outcome. Two economists predicted a turbulent year for markets and investors. Election officials have also warned of the ways the Trump administration could interfere with the elections.
以下是几种主要的可能结果，以及它们对特朗普的总统任期、国会和经济可能产生的影响：
Below are the main scenarios and what they could mean for Trump's presidency, Congress and the economy.
民主党掌控众议院：
Democratic House majority: 5 to 20 seats Democrats gain control of House committees, subpoena power and the ability to investigate Trump and his administration.
民主党将赢得5至20个席位，从而控制众议院各委员会，并拥有传唤特朗普及其政府官员的权力。
Trump administration officials targeted by subpoenas could defy them because a Trump-loyal Justice Department is unlikely to enforce them.
受到传票传唤的特朗普政府官员可能会拒绝配合调查，因为忠于特朗普的司法部不太可能执行这些传票。
Trump retains veto power and broad authority over tariffs, immigration and foreign policy.
特朗普仍保留否决权，以及在关税、移民和外交政策方面的广泛行政权力。
Senate Republicans block most Democratic priorities.
共和党掌控参议院：
Democrats can pass symbolic "messaging" bills on healthcare, abortion rights, housing and AI data centers, but few if any are likely to become law.
共和党将在参议院占据多数席位，从而阻挠大多数民主党的立法提案。
Debt ceiling fights, budget battles and government shutdown threats loom in 2027.
民主党虽然可以通过一些关于医疗保健、堕胎权利、住房以及人工智能数据中心的象征性法案，但这些法案几乎不可能真正成为法律。
Impact: Democrats can investigate Trump and his administration through hearings and subpoenas, but not substantially reshape policy.
其他可能的结果：
Analysts expect a debt limit showdown by summer that could rattle markets and unsettle investors.
债务上限问题、预算争端以及政府停摆的威胁仍将在2027年持续存在。
Trump, who has largely bypassed Congress over the past two years, is likely to continue advancing his agenda through executive orders.
影响：民主党可以通过听证会和传票调查特朗普及其政府，但无法实质性地重塑政策。分析人士预计，夏季将出现债务上限对峙，这可能动摇市场并令投资者不安。特朗普在过去两年里基本上绕过了国会，他很可能继续通过行政命令推进其议程。领导层在吸收党内分歧和推进民主党优先事项方面有更大空间。
Leadership has more room to absorb defections and advance Democratic priorities. A larger freshman class, including more progressive members, could increase calls for Trump's impeachment. Some Republicans may be more willing to break with Trump on unpopular issues such as tariffs and the Iran war. A larger Democratic majority could strengthen Democrats' hand in budget and debt ceiling negotiations, making it easier to win concessions from Republicans.
一个更大的新人议员班子，其中包括更多进步派成员，可能会增加对特朗普弹劾的呼声。
Democrats have more votes and an easier path to pass bills on healthcare, abortion rights and living costs, forcing difficult votes for Senate Republicans.
一些共和党人可能更愿意在关税和伊朗战争等不受欢迎的问题上与特朗普决裂。
Impact: Democrats will likely pass bills to signal they want to tackle inflation, curb Trump's war powers and oppose data centers.
更大的民主党多数席位可能会增强民主党在预算和债务上限谈判中的筹码，使其更容易从共和党那里获得让步。
But major legislative breakthroughs remain unlikely because Senate Republicans can block them and Trump also has veto power.
民主党拥有更多票数，并且在通过医疗保健、堕胎权和生活成本相关法案方面道路更为顺畅，这将迫使参议院共和党人进行艰难的投票。
Trump can continue to govern through executive actions, and a debt ceiling fight remains likely.
影响：民主党很可能通过法案来表明他们想要应对通胀、限制特朗普的战争权力并反对数据中心。但重大立法突破仍然不太可能，因为参议院共和党人可以阻止这些法案，而特朗普也拥有否决权。特朗普可以继续通过行政行动进行治理，债务上限斗争仍然可能发生。
Republicans keep control of the Senate because Vice President JD Vance can break tied votes. A handful of senators willing to break with their party, including Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman and some moderate Republicans, could become kingmakers on key votes. Debt ceiling and budget battles become more unpredictable because neither party can afford defections, giving a handful of senators the power to shape or delay a deal.
由于副总统JD·万斯可以打破平票，共和党人保持了对参议院的控制。
Impact: Washington might be gridlocked with a handful of swing senators determining the outcome of fiscal, judicial and political battles.
少数愿意与本党决裂的参议员，包括宾夕法尼亚州民主党人约翰·费特曼和一些温和派共和党人，可能在关键投票中成为 kingmakers（关键人物）。
Trump should be able to win Senate confirmation of nominees with Vance's tie-breaking vote, while his tariff, immigration and foreign policies remain largely unchecked.
债务上限和预算斗争变得更加不可预测，因为两党都无法承受分裂，这使得少数参议员获得了塑造或延迟协议的权力。
Senate control may carry greater consequences than House control alone because the chamber determines judicial confirmations, cabinet appointments and ambassadorial nominations.
影响： 华盛顿可能会陷入僵局——因为少数几位关键参议员将决定财政、司法及政治斗争的最终结果。凭借万斯的决定性投票，特朗普应该能够成功推动其提名的候选人获得参议院的批准；不过他的关税政策、移民政策以及外交政策在很大程度上仍会不受约束。
Senate Democratic majority: 2 seats Democrats take control of Senate committees and the chamber's agenda. They will likely block many of Trump's judicial nominees and could seek to delay filling any US Supreme Court vacancy until after the 2028 presidential election.
参议院的控制权可能带来更严重的后果， 因为参议院负责审批司法官员的任命、内阁成员的提名以及大使的任命。
Republicans will likely rush through confirmations before the new Congress is seated in January.
参议院民主党占多数席位： 民主党人控制了参议院的各个委员会及整个参议院的议程安排。他们很可能会阻止特朗普提名的许多司法官员，并可能试图将最高法院的空缺职位的填补工作推迟到2028年总统选举之后。
Trump retains veto power and executive authority. Major legislation remains difficult because most bills require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, a Senate rule that allows the minority party to block or delay legislation.
共和党人则可能在新国会于1月就职之前尽快完成这些任命程序。
Control of both chambers gives Democrats more bargaining power in debt ceiling and budget negotiations, although the risk of fiscal standoffs remains significant.
特朗普仍拥有否决权及行政权力。 但由于大多数法案需要60票才能突破参议院的“阻挠议事规则”（即少数党可以阻止或拖延立法进程），因此重大立法的通过仍然困难重重。
Impact: Democrats gain a significant check on Trump's appointments, but narrow margins, the filibuster and Trump's veto limit major legislative gains.
尽管民主党控制了参众两院， 他们在债务上限和预算谈判中拥有更大的议价能力，但财政僵局的风险依然存在。
Leadership is less hostage to individual senators and can afford some defections.
影响： 民主党在特朗普的人事任命问题上获得了更大的制约力，但由于优势微弱，阻挠议事规则以及特朗普的否决权限制了他们的立法进展。民主党更有可能通过有关关税、数据中心建设、医疗保健以及限制总统战争权力的法案，并迫使特朗普对这些法案行使否决权。这些关于否决权的斗争将为民主党2028年的竞选活动提供重要素材。
Democrats are more likely to pass bills on tariffs, data centers, healthcare, living costs and limits on presidential war powers and force Trump to veto them. Those veto fights help Democrats frame the 2028 campaign. Judicial confirmations largely grind to a halt.
司法官员的任命工作几乎陷入停滞。
Impact: Democrats have a better chance to pass bills that address voter concerns over high prices, healthcare costs and data centers, and increase pressure on Republicans.
影响： 民主党有更大的机会通过那些能够解决选民关心的问题（如高物价、医疗费用以及数据中心建设）的法案，从而加大对共和党的压力；不过特朗普仍拥有阻止大多数重大立法通过的权力。
But Trump still retains the power to block most major legislation.
拥有更大多数席位后，选民可能会期望民主党解决他们的经济问题，而不仅仅是反对特朗普。
With a bigger majority, voters likely will look to Democrats to address their economic concerns, not just oppose Trump.
特朗普获得了一个政治对手，这使他能够分担华盛顿失职的责任，并可能将经济问题和高物价归咎于民主党，他可以说民主党现在对经济负有共同责任。
Trump gains a political foil, allowing him to share blame for Washington's shortcomings and potentially pin economic problems and high prices on Democrats, who he can say are now co-responsible for the economy.
民主党可能会声称拥有明确的选举授权，并认为选民对特朗普处理其第二任期前半段的方式表示了谴责。
Democrats could claim a clear electoral mandate and argue that voters rebuked Trump's handling of the first half of his second term.
民主党在与共和党和白宫就政府资金和债务上限进行财政谈判时，处于最强有力的地位，因为他们拥有更多票数来通过相关法案。
Democrats enter fiscal negotiations with Republicans and the White House over government funding and the debt ceiling from their strongest position, because they have more votes to pass the relevant bills.
民主党仍然缺乏足够的票数来克服阻挠议事、推翻否决权，或在任何弹劾审判中定罪特朗普，如果众议院民主党决定弹劾他的话。
Democrats still lack the votes to overcome filibusters, override vetoes or convict Trump in any impeachment trial if House Democrats decide to impeach him.
影响：民主党获得了更大的议价能力，但治理仍受到特朗普否决权、阻挠议事以及对经济的共同政治责任的制约。
Impact: Democrats gain greater leverage but governing remains constrained by Trump's veto, the filibuster and shared political responsibility for the economy.
虽然不太可能，考虑到众议院中有许多处于危险中的共和党议员正在捍卫自己的席位，但这仍然是可能的。
While unlikely, given the number of vulnerable House Republicans defending seats, this remains possible.
影响：特朗普和共和党将声称对其最后两年任期拥有新的授权。在对华盛顿实现统一控制后，大胆的特朗普将面临很少的国会限制，并将继续推进司法提名和其他任命。重大预算、政府停摆和债务上限对抗的风险将降低。
Impact: Trump and Republicans would claim a fresh mandate for his final two years in office. With unified control of Washington, an emboldened Trump would face few congressional constraints and continue advancing judicial nominees and other appointments. The risk of major budget, government shutdown and debt ceiling confrontations would be reduced.