SpaceX (SPCX.O) 和特斯拉 (TSLA.O) 将在本周连续两天发布第三季度业绩，为投资者提供了罕见的并排视角，以审视埃隆·马斯克的两家最有价值的公司，因为合并猜测正在升温。
SpaceX (SPCX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) will report third-quarter results on consecutive days this week, giving investors a rare side-by-side look at Elon Musk's two most valuable companies as merger speculation gathers momentum.
这些业绩将检验星链的稳健增长和特斯拉的汽车利润是否能够为推动合并辩论的人工智能支出提供资金。
The results will test whether Starlink's steady growth and Tesla's car profits can fund the AI spending powering the merger debate.
“就指标而言，必须是星链收入增长超过发射次数，以及特斯拉汽车利润率的改善，” Camelthorn Investments 的顾问 Shawn Campbell 表示，他持有两家公司的股份，并描述了投资者对业绩的关注点。
"In terms of metrics, it would have to be Starlink revenue growth more than launch counts and improvement in auto margins for Tesla," said Shawn Campbell, an adviser at Camelthorn Investments who owns shares in both companies, describing investors' focus for results.
巴克莱上周曾表示，交易可能在特斯拉年度股东大会之前宣布，而 SpaceX 更有可能成为收购方，尽管两家公司或马斯克均未正式承诺倾向于达成交易。特斯拉周一表示，其年度股东大会将于 12 月 3 日举行。
Barclays suggested last week a deal could be announced before Tesla's annual meeting, with SpaceX the likelier acquirer, though neither company nor Musk has officially committed to favoring a deal. Tesla on Monday said its annual meeting would be held on December 3.
在全股票交易中，巴克莱估计马斯克将持有约 37% 的股权和 56% 的表决权。
In an all-stock deal, Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the equity and 56% of the votes.
“SpaceX 收购特斯拉会更清晰，因为这将使处理中国业务作为单独处理的资产变得更容易，” Campbell 表示。
"A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla would be cleaner as it would make it easier to deal with the China business as an asset that is dealt with separately," Campbell said.
特斯拉周四通过推出一款新款 Roadster 跑车为猜测提供了亮点，该车计划于 2028 年投产，可在得克萨斯州的 SpaceX 测试场利用火箭技术在空中跳跃和翻转。
Tesla gave the speculation a showpiece on Thursday, unveiling a new Roadster sports car, slated for production in 2028, that can jump and turn over mid-air using rocket technology at a SpaceX test site in Texas.
“马斯克正通过融合汽车和火箭技术来整合未来的出行方式；至少这是在投资者心中种下的一颗微妙的种子，为合并提供了工程效率的论据，” REX Financial 的研究主管 Bill Birmingham 表示。
"Musk is blending the future of mobility together by integrating auto and rocket technology; at the very least it's a subtle plant in investors' minds making an engineering efficiency argument for a merger," said Bill Birmingham, head of research at REX Financial.
他表示，这一时间点——在特斯拉年度股东大会之前——绝非巧合。
He said the timing, ahead of Tesla's annual shareholders meeting, was no coincidence.
SpaceX 在二月吸收了马斯克的 xAI，早在其六月 IPO 前几个月，而特斯拉和 SpaceX 的支出如今指向同一地点：人工智能。
SpaceX absorbed Musk's xAI in February, months before its June IPO, and spending by Tesla and SpaceX now points to the same place: AI.
这些业务仍有所不同，SpaceX 的收入来源于发射、星链和人工智能计算，而特斯拉则来自汽车和储能。
The businesses still differ, with SpaceX earning from launches, Starlink and AI compute, and Tesla from cars and energy storage.
根据LSEG编译的数据，该公司预计将报告第三季度收入约为127.4亿美元，每股收益14美分，这仅在其上市四个月后。这与第二季度收入78亿美元、净亏损5.41亿美元以及人工智能资本支出158亿美元形成对比。
The company is expected to report third-quarter revenue of about $12.74 billion and earnings of 14 cents a share, just four months after going public, according to data compiled by LSEG. That compares with second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, a net loss of $541 million, and AI capital spending of $15.8 billion.
Evercore ISI预计，SpaceX将在2026年底以约1040亿美元的年化收入运行率收官，这一增长主要由人工智能业务带动，该业务将承担“大部分繁重工作”，并预计其2027年的资本支出将达到约1510亿美元。
Evercore ISI expects SpaceX to exit 2026 at an annualized revenue run-rate of about $104 billion, driven by the AI segment doing "most of the heavy lifting," and estimates capital spending reaching about $151 billion in 2027.
连通性收入（包括Starlink）在第二季度增长66%，达到43亿美元。
Connectivity revenue, which includes Starlink, rose 66% to $4.3 billion in the second quarter.
SpaceX还于10月8日同意以约80亿美元从Grain Management购买800兆赫兹频谱，该交易需要获得美国联邦通信委员会的批准，并为其Starlink Mobile业务奠定基础。
SpaceX also agreed on October 8 to buy 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for about $8 billion, a deal that needs Federal Communications Commission approval and underpins its Starlink Mobile push.
周五，股价收于146.03美元，高于其IPO价135美元，但远低于首次亮相后的峰值。
Shares closed at $146.03 on Friday, above the $135 IPO price but well below their post-debut peak.
特斯拉预计将在2023年以来首次实现全年交付增长，但投资者更关注其利润以及对Robotaxi的押注。
Tesla is on track to grow deliveries this year for the first time since 2023, but investors are more focused on profits and its robotaxi bets.
分析师预计，特斯拉将在收入约278.8亿美元的基础上报告调整后每股收益约43美分，而去年同期为每股50美分。
Analysts expect Tesla to report adjusted earnings of roughly 43 cents a share on revenue of about $27.88 billion, compared with 50 cents a year earlier.
第二季度利润远低于预期，自由现金流为负11亿美元 — — 这是超过两年来首次出现负值。
Second-quarter profit fell well short of estimates, with negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion — slipping into the red for the first time in over two years.
尽管如此，特斯拉在第三季度交付了486,532辆汽车，超过了分析师的预期。
Still, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating analysts' estimates.
特斯拉表示，其今年的资本支出将超过250亿美元，且其股价在2026年已下跌约17%，因为分析师预计该公司将在第三季度出现49.2亿美元的负自由现金流。
Tesla has said capital spending will exceed $25 billion this year, and its shares are down about 17% in 2026 as analysts expect the company to post negative free cash flow of $4.92 billion for the third quarter.
然而，华尔街主要将Robotaxi和Optimus人形机器人作为评估特斯拉增长的关键，认为它们是高利润产品线，最终可能掩盖其传统汽车销售业务。
Still, Wall Street has largely focused on robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot to assess the company's growth, citing them as high-margin product lines that could overshadow its traditional car sales business eventually.
与Waymo相比，特斯拉的机器人出租车业务和车队规模较小，但该公司预计将在未来几年广泛推出其自动驾驶出租车。
While Tesla's robotaxi business and fleet are small compared to Waymo, the company expects to roll out its self-driving taxis widely in the coming years.
其估值在很大程度上依赖于此类长期雄心壮志，而非汽车业务——汽车业务贡献了公司收入的主要部分。
Its valuation has largely hinged on such long-term ambitions instead of the car business, which contributes the lion's share of the company's revenue.