随着共和党被认为不太可能在众议院保持多数，该党正将更多注意力转向参议院的争夺战，在那里，他们在广告上的支出远远超过民主党。
With Republicans seen as less likely to hold their majority in the House, the party is focusing more on the battle for the Senate, where it is vastly outspending Democrats on ads.
共和党在今年中期选举中拥有巨大的财务优势。但距离选举仅剩两周，现在显然他们的支出优势几乎完全体现在参议院的广告竞争中——而非众议院。
Republicans have an enormous financial edge in this year’s midterms. But with two weeks until the election, it is now clear that their spending advantage is overwhelmingly playing out only in the advertising battle for the Senate — not the House.
在《Cook Political Report》评为摇摆不定的七场参议院竞选中，共和党在广告上的支出达到9.47亿美元，而民主党为6.25亿美元。根据AdImpact对已播出广告和未来预订的统计，这在可能决定参议院控制权归属的关键竞选中形成了超过3.2亿美元的惊人优势。
In the seven Senate races that the Cook Political Report rated as tossups, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising by $947 million to $625 million. That is a breathtaking advantage of more than $320 million in the key races that could determine which party wins control of the Senate, according to a tally by AdImpact of ads that have been already been shown and future reservations.
然而，众议院的情况却截然不同。尽管共和党在最接近的众议院竞选中仍保有广告支出优势，但这一优势相对较小——在21场被评为摇摆不定的众议院竞选中，仅领先1400万美元。这种差异有多种解释。参议院竞选通常比众议院竞选吸引更多资金和关注。
It is a very different story in the House, though. Republicans still have an advertising advantage in the closest House races, but it is relatively narrow — just a $14 million edge across the 21 races rated as tossups. There are a number of explanations for the discrepancy. Senate races generally attract more money and attention than congressional contests.
埃隆·马斯克在德克萨斯州参议院竞选中的巨额支出也是一个因素。他向支持肯·帕克斯顿（该州共和党参议院候选人）的超级政治行动委员会捐赠了近1.7亿美元——这是来自个人的巨额资金注入。
Elon Musk’s enormous spending on the Texas Senate race is also a factor He gave nearly $170 million to super PACs backing Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee there — a huge injection of cash from one person. But it is also appears to be an indication that both parties — and their donors — are viewing it as increasingly unlikely that Republicans will be able to hold onto their House majority.
但这也似乎表明，双方——以及他们的捐助者——正越来越认为共和党难以保住众议院多数。尽管参议院控制权的争夺仍然悬而未决，共和党捐助者正相应地在关键参议院竞选中大笔支出。
The battle to win control of the Senate, though, remains on a knife’s edge. Republican donors are accordingly spending big in key Senate races.
在七场摇摆不定的参议院竞选中，有六场共和党的广告支出远超民主党。最大的差距出现在德克萨斯州（1.41亿美元），但俄亥俄州（近9000万美元）、缅因州（近3200万美元）和密歇根州（3300万美元）也存在巨大差距。
In six of the seven tossup Senate races, Republican ad spending is far outstripping Democrats’. The biggest gap is in Texas ($141 million), but there are chasms also in Ohio (nearly $90 million), Maine (nearly $32 million) and Michigan ($33 million).
只有在堪萨斯州 — — 共和党人正在进行一场晚期的救援任务 — — 支出才接近。在那里，民主党的优势不到200万美元。
Only in Kansas — where Republicans are engaged in a late rescue mission— is the spending even close. There, Democrats had an edge of less than $2 million.
在众议院，共和党人并没有如此明确的优势。在21个摇摆选区，共和党目前计划在10个席位上花费更多，而民主党计划在11个席位上花费更多。
In the House, there is not such a clear-cut edge for Republicans. Across the 21 tossup districts, Republicans are currently set to spend more on 10 seats while Democrats are set to spend more on 11.
值得注意的是，近年来，民主党在众议院支出方面已经超过了共和党。在特朗普总统的第一次中期选举，即2018年，共和党策略师曾谈到他们在“绿色浪潮”中被冲走，就像在蓝色浪潮中一样。“这一次，这些钱不会救他们，”全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉说。“共和党人有钱、有图谋、有信息。”共和党人在目前倾向民主党的十二个席位上确实拥有大约3000万美元的支出优势 — — 但民主党在目前被评为倾向共和党的十三个席位上拥有不到100万美元的微弱优势。
It is worth noting that in recent years, Democrats have lapped Republicans in House spending. In President Trump’s first midterm election, in 2018, G.O.P. strategists spoke about being washed away in a “green wave” as much as a blue one“This cycle, that money won’t save them,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Republicans have the money, the map and the message.”Republicans do have a roughly $30 million spending edge in the dozen seats that are leaning Democratic — but Democrats have a narrow edge of less than $1 million in the 13 seats that are currently rated as leaning Republican. “We came into this cycle preparing for the worst-case scenario in Republican spending, and planned accordingly,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesman for the House Majority PAC, the biggest super PAC for House Democrats.
“我们进入这个周期时，是为共和党支出的最坏情况做准备的，并据此进行了规划，”众议院多数党政治行动委员会（House Majority PAC）发言人CJ·沃恩克说，该委员会是众议院民主党最大的超级政治行动委员会。“虽然我们正深入特朗普领地进行斗争，但共和党的支出优势最终会让一些可赢得的席位被搁置。”这些评级是流动的。库克最近几周已将众多赛事纳入民主党方向。
“While we’re fighting deep into Trump territory, the G.O.P. spending advantage will ultimately leave some winnable seats on the table.”These ratings are fluid. Cook has moved numerous races into the Democratic direction in recent weeks.
支出的美元并不直接等于播出的广告。根据联邦法律，候选人有权获得比超级政治行动委员会更便宜的电视费率。由于民主党众议院和参议院候选人筹集的资金远多于共和党候选人，民主党通常在这些更便宜的费率上花费更多用于广告。然而，共和党团体相较于民主党团体拥有巨大优势，这主要得益于特朗普盟友的超级政治行动委员会和马斯克的财力。
Dollars spent do not directly equal ads aired. Candidates are entitled to cheaper TV rates than super PACs are under federal law. Democrats are generally spending more on ads at that cheaper rate because Democratic candidates for both the House and the Senate are raising far more than Republican candidates. Republican groups, though, have a big advantage over Democratic ones, led by Mr. Trump’s allied super PACs and Mr. Musk’s wallet.
每位主要的民主党参议院候选人在筹款方面都碾压他们的共和党对手。
Every major Senate Democratic candidate is crushing their Republican counterparts in fund-raising.
根据《纽约时报》对联邦选举委员会最近一季度申报文件的分析，在42场竞争最激烈的众议院选举中，民主党籍众议员和挑战者在38场中筹得的资金超过了共和党对手——其中许多超出数百万美元。
And Democratic House members and challengers out-raised their Republican opponents in 38 of the 42 most competitive contests, according to a New York Times analysis of Federal Election Commission filings in the most recent quarter— many by millions of dollars.
民主党国会竞选委员会执行主任朱莉·梅兹预测，民主党将赢得多数席位，她在一份声明中表示，他们正致力于“最大限度地利用每一美元，与共和党及其暗金支持者竞争”。
Julie Merz, the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, predicted that Democrats would win the majority, saying in a statement that they were working to “maximize every dollar and compete with Republicans and their dark-money backers.”