展望2026年，众多投资者对一系列新的首次公开募股充满期待，其中包括SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI等市值极高的私营企业计划进行的IPO。
Heading into 2026, investors were excited at the prospect of a host of new initial public offerings, including ones from megacap private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI.
然而如今，投资者们只能接受低于年初预期的成果：OpenAI已宣布不会在2026年上市，其他多个原定今年进行的IPO计划也纷纷推迟。
But now investors will have to settle for less than they expected at the start of the year, with OpenAI ruling out its debut on the public markets in 2026 and several other planned offerings postponed this year.
在预测市场平台Kalshi上，投机者们认为今年唯一有可能正式宣布IPO的大型企业就是Anthropic。这家公司已于6月初向美国证券交易委员会秘密提交了招股说明书。
On prediction market platform Kalshi, speculators think the only major company left that may officially announce an IPO this year is Anthropic, which confidentially filed a prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in early June.
Kalshi平台上的相关市场机制要求交易者预测是否有多家企业会在2026年正式宣布IPO。所谓“正式公告”的判定标准由美国证券交易委员会确认企业的S-1招股书生效、IPO定价完成或证券交易所为相关股票分配交易代码来决定；合约的最终结果则参考各类新闻媒体的报道。
The market on Kalshi asks traders if they think a series of companies will officially announce an IPO in 2026. The question of what constitutes an official announcement is resolved by the SEC declaring a company's S-1 effective, an IPO pricing or an exchange assigning a ticker to the stock. Contracts are resolved using various news outlets as sources.
在Kalshi平台上目前仍可交易的23家企业中，只有Anthropic的IPO成功概率超过50%——截至周一上午，这一概率更是达到了75%。
Of the 23 companies that Kalshi lists on its market that remain open to trade, only Anthropic offers greater than 50% odds — in fact, 75% as of Monday morning — to officially announce an IPO this year.
今年1月时，交易者们曾预计金融科技公司Plaid今年上市的概率达50%；如今这一预期值已降至10%。据悉，Plaid在私募市场的估值高达80亿美元。
Traders in January gave financial technology company Plaid 50% odds to debut on the public markets this year. They now place just a 10% chance the company, reportedly valued at $8 billion in the private market, goes public.
人力资源与薪酬管理平台Deel在2月份时上市概率还为50%，如今投机者们认为其2026年上市的可能性仅剩3%。云服务和人工智能平台Databricks的情况也类似：今年1月时其上市概率还超过50%，如今则降至仅1%。
Human Resources and payroll platform Deel had 50-50 odds as recently as February, but now speculators see only a 3% chance the company goes public in 2026. Cloud and artificial intelligence platform Databricks' odds are just 1%, after seeing more than 50% odds in January.
作为Anthropic的主要竞争对手，OpenAI的上市概率同样仅为3%。此前OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼曾表示，鉴于当前人工智能安全方面的诸多顾虑，此时上市并不合适。在Kalshi平台上，交易者们认为OpenAI能在2027年6月前正式宣布IPO的概率也仅为50%。
Similarly, OpenAI — Anthropic's chief rival — has just a 3% chance of going public after CEO Sam Altman said last month it didn't make sense to go public amid concerns over AI safety. Traders on Kalshi carry just 50-50 odds OpenAI makes an official IPO announcement by June 2027.
IPO推迟现象在近几周内跨行业增长。虽然今年IPO所得大幅增加，主要受巨型公司首次公开发行推动，尤其是6月份的SpaceX，但根据Renaissance Capital的数据，今年美国定价的IPO数量实际上比2025年下降了33%。
IPO postponements, from across sectors, have grown in recent weeks. And while IPO proceeds this year are up sharply, driven by megacap debuts, notably SpaceX in June, the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is actually down 33% compared to 2025, according to Renaissance Capital.
投资者正在押注主要的人工智能公司，以及那些产品正在推动人工智能建设的公司，希望它们从私募市场转向公开市场，以获取更大的资本池来融资发展。许多公司增长速度极快，公开市场被视为支持这种增长的下一步。
Investors are betting on major AI companies, as well as those whose products are contributing to the AI buildout, to move from private to public markets as they seek greater capital pools of capital to finance development. Many have grown at a blistering pace, and public markets are seen as the next step to support that growth.
然而，乐观的增长假设上周受到质疑，因为Anthropic透露其第三季度收入总计为168亿美元，环比增长弱于过去的时期。
Optiimistic growth assumptions were called into question last week, however, when Anthropic revealed its revenue totaled $16.8 billion in the third quarter, weaker quarter-over-quarter growth than in past periods.
“关于收入增长在9月放缓的原因以及Anthropic是否能够以市场预期的速度增长收入，出现了更多问题而非答案，诸如[大型语言模型]定价压力等动态因素也在起作用，”22V Research分析师Dauvin Peterson在周日写道。“归根结底，从1.5万亿美元起步的修订后IPO估值区间，相较于之前至少2万亿美元的预期，被视为令人失望，并为已经承受压力的AI相关股票火上浇油。”
"More questions than answers emerged around the reasons for revenue growth deceleration in September and whether Anthropic can grow revenue at the rate the market is expecting given dynamics such as [large language model] pricing pressure," wrote 22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson on Sunday. "At the end of the day, the revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5T vs the prior expectation of at least $2T was viewed as disappointing and added fuel to the fire for the AI-related equities that were already under pressure."