加拿大央行的调查显示，通胀预期正在上升，且有更多证据表明企业计划将更高的输入成本转嫁给客户。
Bank of Canada surveys showed inflation expectations moving higher, and more evidence that firms plan to pass on higher input costs to customers.
尽管该调查的大部分结果是在美加贸易谈判于8月底破裂之前收集的，但央行表示“整体商业情绪有所改善”，且第三季度的销售前景也有所提升。央行的展望指标小幅上升至-0.33。
Though most of the survey results were taken before trade talks between the US and Canada fell apart at the end of August, the bank said “overall business sentiment improved” and sales outlooks had improved in the third quarter. The bank's outlook indicator rose slightly to minus 0.33.
与此同时，央行表示，自贸易紧张局势重新升级以来收集的结果表明，新关税正“影响企业的前景”。“通胀预期随着新关税的实施和能源价格的近期反弹而上升，”央行周一表示。“这些关税也在削弱商业情绪，削弱出口和投资前景，并对成本和价格造成上行压力。”所谓的商业脉冲调查显示，企业对一年后和两年后通胀的预期出现激增。该调查于9月进行。企业对通胀何时能够回归央行2%目标的时间也更不确定了，近四分之一的企业——比上一季度更高的比例——表示很难说清这一点。
At the same time, the bank said results gathered since the reescalation in trade tensions suggest the new tariffs are “weighing on firms' outlooks.”“Inflation expectations have risen alongside the new tariffs and the recent rebound in energy prices,” the bank said Monday. “The tariffs are also dampening business sentiment, weakening outlooks for exports and investment, and putting upward pressure on costs and prices.”The so-called business pulse survey, which was conducted into September, showed a spike in firms’ expectations of inflation a year and two years from now. Firms were also less certain about the timing of when inflation would return to the bank's 2% target, and almost a quarter of firms -- a larger share than in the previous quarter -- said it was too hard to say.
更多企业也报告称，由于贸易紧张局势，其成本和售价出现了“轻微或显著”增加。超过40%面临高于正常水平成本增加的企业表示，他们计划在未来十二个月内将这些成本转嫁给客户。约四分之一的企业表示他们已经这样做了。
More firms were also reporting a “slight or significant” increase in their costs and selling prices due to the trade tensions. More than 40% of firms facing larger than normal cost increases said they plan to pass those costs on to customers over the next twelve months. About a quarter say they've already done so.
“对于一些企业而言，进一步转嫁成本的计划反映出需求条件有所改善，以及他们试图弥补过去利润率被压缩的情况，”央行表示。
“For several firms, plans to further pass through costs reflect somewhat improved demand conditions and efforts to make up for past margin compression,” the bank said.
在更广泛的商业调查中，投资意愿有所放缓，但仍然保持“强劲”，央行表示。
In the broader business survey, investment intentions eased but remain “robust,” the bank said.
央行对消费者的调查也显示，加拿大人预期长期通胀将更高，这对政策制定者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。
The bank's survey of consumers also showed Canadians anticipated higher longer-term inflation expectations, a worrying sign for policymakers.
消费者对未来五年通货膨胀的预期上升至3.91%，达到了自2022年第二季度以来的最高水平；当时消费者价格指数的年涨幅创下了数十年来的新高。
Consumers’ expectations of inflation five years from now spiked to 3.91%, marking the highest level since the second quarter of 2022, when the yearly change in the consumer price index hit the highest level in decades.
“在加拿大与美国之间的贸易谈判破裂后，消费者对未来通胀的预期普遍上升，”加拿大央行表示。
“Expectations at all horizons moved higher after trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down,” the bank said.
与上一季度相比，消费者对自己的财务状况感到更加乐观，这主要得益于金融资产价值的增加以及劳动力市场信心的提升。
Consumers also felt better about their financial health than they did in the previous quarter, citing gains in the value of financial assets and greater labor market confidence.
虽然劳动者对就业市场的看法有所改善，但整体仍低于调查的平均水平；那些依赖与美国贸易的行业中的劳动者就业市场前景也有所好转，不过央行指出，大部分调查数据是在贸易谈判破裂之前收集的。
While workers’ perceptions of the job market improved slightly, they remained below the survey average. Workers in sectors more reliant on trade with the US also had improved job market perceptions, though the central bank notes most responses were collected before trade talks fell apart.
“这种改善可能反映了自然资源行业的情况：由于商品价格上涨以及生产和运输能力的提升，这些行业的出口销售额得到了支持（尤其是石油和天然气行业），”央行解释道。
“Part of the improvement may reflect conditions among natural resource firms, where elevated commodity prices and expansion in production and transportation capacity are supporting export sales, particularly in oil and gas,” the central bank said.
与此同时，在那些人工智能可能取代人类工作的行业中，劳动者的就业前景预期反而恶化了。
Meanwhile, expectations deteriorated among workers in sectors where artificial intelligence poses a higher risk of task replacement.
尽管消费者报告称自己的财务状况和就业市场前景有所改善，但由于高物价和经济不确定性持续存在，他们的消费计划仍在进一步恶化。
Although consumers reported improvements in their financial health and job market perceptions, their spending plans deteriorated further as high prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on them.
关于企业前景和消费者情绪的调查数据大多是在贸易紧张局势再次升级之前收集的，不过后来央行还补充了相关的企业调查结果。
Most of the results received for both the business outlook and consumer surveys were received before the reescalation of trade tensions, but were supplemented with the bank's business pulse survey.
周一早些时候，加拿大统计局公布的数据显示，整体通胀率上升至3.1%（年化水平），但核心通胀指标则有所回落。
Earlier on Monday, Statistics Canada reported that headline inflation rose to a 3.1% yearly pace, but yearly core measures eased.
加拿大央行将于10月28日决定利率走势；夜盘掉期交易市场的参与者预计央行在会议上加息的概率约为三分之二。
The Bank of Canada sets interest rates Oct. 28. Traders in overnight swaps were pricing about a two-thirds chance of hike at that meeting.