翻译：凤凰城——在特朗普总统竞选之旅中做出的众多竞选承诺中，很少有像他关于移民的承诺那样深得支持者认同。但说到总统针对无证移民的行动，帮助这位总统赢得2024年大选的拉丁裔选民已经注意到了：美国国土安全部不仅针对“最恶劣的那一群人”。
PHOENIX — Of the litany of campaign promises President Donald Trump made on the trail, few caught on with his supporters the way his promises about immigration did. But when it comes to the president’s targeting of undocumented immigrants, the Latino voters who helped catapult the president to victory in 2024 have noticed that the Department of Homeland Security is not only targeting “the worst of the worst.”
来自亚利桑德罗州苏锐的耶稣·卡迪埃尔（Jesus Cardiel），73岁，表示他通常投共和党，因为该党最符合他在堕胎问题上的信念。卡迪埃尔认为特朗普的移民打击行动将在此次中期选举中给他带来麻烦。
Jesús Cardiel, 73, from Surprise, Arizona, said he typically votes Republican because the party most aligns with his beliefs on abortion. Cardiel believes Trump’s immigration crackdown will cost him with Latino voters in these midterm elections.
“他没有兑现承诺，只驱逐那些对人民构成威胁的人，而是连完全无辜的人都驱逐了，这肯定会影响我们在投票站的表现，”他补充道。
“Instead of the promise he made to deport only those who were a threat to the people, he’s even deporting people who are completely innocent, and that’s going to affect us at the polls,” he added.
卡迪埃尔直觉认为，总统的移民打击行动远非聚焦于“最恶劣的那一群人”——正如政府喜欢描述的那些被逮捕的对象一样。这一判断得到了数据的印证。
Cardiel’s instinct that the president’s immigration crackdown is far from focused on the “worst of the worst,” as the administration likes to describe those it’s rounding up, is borne out by the numbers.
由加州大学洛杉矶分校和加州大学伯克利分校联合成立的“驱逐数据项目”发现，截至2026年7月，被移民与海关执法局（ICE）逮捕并羁押的人中，73.5%没有犯罪定罪记录。其余人中，24.8%犯有非暴力罪行，而仅1.6%的逮捕涉及被定有暴力罪行的无证移民，据分析报告称。
The Deportation Data Project, a joint research venture from UCLA and UC Berkeley, found that as of July 2026, 73.5% of those arrested and booked by Immigration and Customs Enforcement had no criminal convictions. Of the others, 24.8% had been convicted of a nonviolent crime, while only 1.6% of those arrests involved undocumented immigrants convicted of a violent crime, according to the analysis.
但去听听特朗普的“MAGA”基本支持者怎么说——比如上周三在亚利桑德罗州巴特海德城等待数小时只为听他演讲的那些人——许多人依然对ICE突袭行动的效果赞不绝口。
But talk to Trump’s MAGA base — like those who waited hours for him to speak at a rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, last Wednesday — and many of them remain smitten with the way ICE raids have been going.
“他们在做他们需要做的事情，”来自哈瓦苏湖城、三次投票支持特朗普的64岁迪安·麦卡特说，她上周参加了特朗普在亚利桑那州的集会。当被问及她是否认为ICE在最近几个月在奥斯汀、德克萨斯州和纽约市射杀无证移民后行动过于激进时，麦卡特坚信他们并没有。
“They’re doing what they need to do,” said Deanne McCarter, 64, a three-time Trump voter from Lake Havasu City, who attended Trump’s rally in Arizona last week. Asked whether she believes ICE has been too aggressive after shooting undocumented immigrants in Austin, Texas, and New York City in recent months, McCarter was convinced they weren’t.
“FAFO，”这位特朗普超级粉丝说，使用了一个带有脏话的缩写，意思是“乱搞，自找麻烦”。“我的意思是，我很抱歉，但事实就是这样。”来自牛头城、退休护士、三次投票支持特朗普的佩吉·米勒也对ICE在街头射击人们表示没有任何顾虑。“人们身处不该待的地方很不幸，”67岁的米勒说。“他们不应该做他们当时在做的事情，”她补充道。米勒和麦卡特对特朗普移民政策的认同反映了更广泛的趋势。
“FAFO,” said the Trump superfan, using an abbreviation with an expletive that means “[mess] around, find out.”“I mean, I’m sorry, but that’s the way that it is.”Peggy Miller, a retired nurse and three-time Trump voter from Bullhead City, also expressed no qualms about ICE shooting people in the streets. “It is unfortunate that people are in the wrong place where they should not be,” said Miller, 67. “They should not have been doing what they were doing,” she added. Miller and McCarter’s approval of Trump’s approach to immigration reflects broader trends.
根据8月份的美联社/NORC民调，十分之八的共和党人赞同总统处理移民问题的方式。
According to an August AP/NORC poll, 8 in 10 Republicans approve of how the president is handling immigration.
但这种热情在总统在拉美裔社区中的支持度上已经消失，而拉美裔社区在2024年曾以历史性数字支持总统。
But that enthusiasm has disappeared when it comes to the president’s support among the Latino community, which went for the president in historic numbers in 2024.
根据本月早些时候的NBC新闻/Telemundo民调，特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率为27%。而69%的受访者对其处理移民问题的方式表示不赞同。
According to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll from earlier this month, Trump has a 27% approval rate among Latino voters. And 69% of those surveyed disapprove of his handling of immigration.
乌奈·库蒂诺是一名45岁的供暖、通风和空调员工，他在最近三次总统选举中都投票支持特朗普。如今，他感到购买后悔。
Unai Cutino is a 45-year-old HVAC employee who voted for Trump in each of the last three presidential elections. Now, he’s got buyer’s remorse.
“我后悔了。我曾对他寄予厚望，他承诺了许多事情，但如今一无所获，”来自凤凰城的库蒂诺说。他表示，最近几个月在亚利桑那州首府掀起的移民打击行动一直“非常激进”。“这个政府总是让权贵受益，而穷人被抛在后边，”库蒂诺说。
“I regret it. I had so much hope that he promised so many things, and there’s nothing to show for it,” said Cutino, who is from Phoenix. He said the immigration crackdown, which has swept through Arizona’s capital in recent months, has been “very aggressive.”“This presidency always benefits the powerful, and the poor are left behind,” Cutino said.
“如今选举临近，许多拉美裔不再倾向于投票给他，”卡迪埃尔警告道。
“Many Latinos aren’t inclined to vote for him now that the elections are coming up,” Cardiel warned.
然而，当询问特朗普的“MAGA”是否认为总统兑现了驱逐“最恶劣的恶劣分子”的承诺时，MAGA信徒坚信总统正在兑现这一承诺。
And yet, when asking Trump’s MAGA whether the president is making good on his promise to deport the “worst of the worst,” the MAGA faithful are convinced.
“我们看到他们是罪犯。我没有看到任何无辜的人被驱逐，这与媒体、主流媒体试图营造的假象不符，”麦卡瑟说。“左派在尖叫和踢踹，所以总统一定在做正确的事，”她补充道。
“We see that they’re criminals. I don’t see any other innocent people getting [deported] contrary to what the media, the mainstream media, is trying to make it look like,” McCarter said. “The left are screaming and kicking, so he must be doing something right,” she added.