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美国卫星如何成为乌克兰防御的关键How US Satellites Became Crucial to Ukraine’s Defense

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10月16日,在乌克兰顿涅茨克地区,士兵们携带一套将要在战斗阵地架设的星链卫星通信终端。来源:NurPhotoSoldiers with a Starlink satellite communication terminal to be set up at a combat position in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Oct. 16. Source: NurPhoto

乌克兰对俄罗斯袭击的防御在很大程度上依赖美国卫星,这不仅是为了防范导弹来袭预警,也是为了维持无人机和前线部队运转的通信。

Ukraine’s defense against Russian attacks depends heavily on US satellites, not only for warning of incoming missiles but also for the communications that keep drones and frontline forces operating.

欧洲国家正试图在太空情报和连接能力方面迎头赶上美国,但仍缺乏支撑乌克兰作战行动和导弹防御系统的许多关键能力。

European nations are trying to catch up with the US in space-based intelligence and connectivity, but still lack many crucial capabilities that underpin Ukrainian combat operations and missile-defense systems.

基辅对美国技术和支持的依赖在10月中旬再次显现为一个薄弱环节,当时总统泽连斯基表示,在发生一起造成人员伤亡的袭击事件之前,乌克兰没有收到盟友通常发出的弹道导弹发射预警。大约在同一时期,据报道,乌克兰军队使用的太空探索技术公司星链卫星服务受到了突如其来的限制。

Kyiv’s reliance on American technology and support reemerged as a vulnerability in mid-October, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had not received the usual warning from allies of ballistic missile launches before a deadly attack on the country. Around the same time, sudden restrictions were reported on SpaceX Starlink satellite services used by Ukrainian forces.

星链——由埃隆·马斯克的太空探索技术公司建立的低地轨道商业卫星通信网络——及其军用版本星盾,在战争初期地面通信遭到俄罗斯空袭严重破坏后,已经成为乌克兰武装部队指挥基础设施的支柱。地面终端使乌克兰拦截无人机和中程打击无人机的飞行员能够控制这些机器,同时该网络还允许地面部队协调前线的物资供应和调动。美国军用卫星对于乌克兰防御俄罗斯导弹和无人机也至关重要。

Starlink — the low-earth orbit commercial satellite communication network established by Elon Musk’s SpaceX — and its military version, Starshield, have come to underpin the Ukrainian armed forces’ command infrastructure after terrestrial communications were badly damaged by Russian strikes early in the war. The ground terminals allow pilots of Ukrainian interceptor drones and mid-range strike drones to control the machines, while the network also allows ground forces to coordinate supplies and movements along the front line. US military satellites are also vital for Ukraine’s defense against Russian missiles and drones.

消防员于10月14日在基辅扑灭一起俄罗斯导弹袭击居民楼现场的大火。Firefighters extinguish a blaze at the site of a Russian missile strike at an apartment building in Kyiv on Oct. 14.

除了美国之外,没有任何国家能够为欧洲提供近乎持续的天基欧洲成像服务。其众多且强大的间谍卫星能够提供包括视频在内的高质量图像。通过天基红外系统(简称SBIRS),美国还拥有处于地球同步轨道的卫星,这使其能够保持在地球上某一个特定点的上方。这些卫星是美国针对全球任何地方导弹预警的中坚力量,而欧洲没有同等水平的装备。

No country beside the US can offer near-constant space-based imaging of Europe. Its numerous and powerful spy satellites can provide high-quality images, including video. Via the Space Based Infrared System, or SBIRS, the US also has satellites in geosynchronous orbit, which keeps them over one spot on earth. These are the backbone of US early warning for missiles anywhere on Earth, and there is no equivalent in Europe.

一架“毒刺”拦截无人机在基辅地区进行演习期间飞行。A Sting interceptor drone flies during drills in the Kyiv region.

这些卫星可以对巡航导弹以及其他可能在地面雷达发现之前就已漏网、从而错失拦截时机的低空飞行武器进行实时追踪。这对于依赖无人机、飞机机炮以及其他低技术手段来摧毁成群量产弹丸的军队(例如乌克兰军队)而言尤其有用。

The satellites allow for real-time tracking of cruise missiles and other low-flying weapons that might escape detection by ground radar until it’s too late to stop them. This is especially helpful for a military, such as Ukraine’s, that relies on drones, aircraft cannons and other low-tech methods of destroying swarms of mass-produced projectiles.

SBIRS还能探测到弹道导弹发射时的尾焰。这些导弹的飞行速度和高度比其他机载武器快得多、高得多,这使得它们更难以应对。了解弹道导弹何时发射、其飞行速度和方向,对乌克兰的空袭预警系统至关重要。(哪怕只是在袭击发生前一两分钟发出警报,也能让平民有时间寻找掩护,从而挽救生命。)这种能力还使乌克兰武装部队拥有更大的机会去拦截和摧毁来袭武器。

SBIRS can also detect the launch plumes of ballistic missiles. These missiles travel much faster and higher than other airborne weapons, making them harder to deal with. Knowing when a ballistic missile is fired, its speed and direction is vital for Ukraine’s air-raid warning systems. (An alert — even one that comes a minute or two ahead of the impact — can save lives by giving civilians time to take cover). That capability also gives Ukraine’s armed forces a greater chance of intercepting and destroying the inbound weapons.

在较远距离上击落一枚导弹可能会更难。但在远距离上失手仍然可以争取到再次射击的时间。如果直到最后一分钟才发现来袭导弹,那么在近距离上失手就意味着粉碎了一场可能具有毁灭性袭击的最后机会。

It can be harder to knock out a missile at longer range. But a miss at long range still allows time for another shot. If an incoming missile is only noticed at the last minute, a miss at close range blows the final chance to foil a potentially devastating attack.

乌克兰官员表示,在近期俄罗斯对该国发动的某些弹道导弹袭击之前,美国政府并未发出早期预警警报。

Ukrainian officials said the US government did not send early warning alerts ahead of some recent Russian ballistic missile attacks on the country.

乌克兰还抱怨说,配备星链终端的无人机在乌克兰以每小时161公里(100英里)以上的速度行驶时会失去连接。无人机通常需要以更高的速度行驶,以拦截以每小时400公里速度飞行的来袭俄罗斯无人机,而这些限制已经扰乱了无人机拦截和中程打击。

Ukraine also complained that drones equipped with Starlink terminals were losing connectivity when traveling at speeds above 161 kilometers (100 miles) per hour in Ukraine. The drones often need to travel faster than this to intercept an incoming Russian drone traveling at 400 kilometers per hour, and the restrictions have disrupted drone interceptions and mid-range strikes.

当被问及是谁下达了这一变更时,泽连斯基总统指向了“当局、白宫”,并引用了他未透露身份的“消息来源”。一位美国高级官员表示,特朗普并未下达任何限制。

Asked who ordered the change, President Zelenskyy pointed to “the authorities, the White House,” citing “sources” he didn’t identify. A senior US official has said Trump didn’t order any limitations.

欧洲的军队拥有多种地球观测卫星,这些卫星有助于乌克兰部队定位俄军部队、坦克、炮兵和军事设施,并识别弹药库、机场和导弹发射设施。乌克兰军队可以利用这些信息对这些设施进行打击。

Europe’s militaries have a variety of earth-observation satellites that help Ukrainian forces locate Russian troops, tanks, artillery and military installations and identify ammunition depots, airfields and missile-launch facilities. The Ukrainian military can use that information to strike at those facilities.

芬兰的ICEYE合成孔径雷达卫星可以在夜间运作,能够穿透云层、烟雾和霾。法国卫星传感器能够检测热辐射并识别传统相机容易忽略的人类活动。

Finland’s ICEYE synthetic-aperture radar satellites can operate at night and see through cloud cover, smoke and haze. French satellite sensors detect thermal radiation and identify human activity that conventional cameras can easily miss.

德国已向美国的Planet Labs等商业卫星公司付费,为乌克兰获取高分辨率影像,包括俄罗斯境内的影像。这些数据可用于目标定位和长期监测俄军动向——这可能是关键情报,有望挫败一次企图发动的袭击。

Germany has paid commercial satellite companies such as US-based Planet Labs for high-resolution imagery for Ukraine, including inside Russian territory. This can provide data for targeting and spotting Russian military movement over time — potentially crucial intelligence that could thwart an attempted attack.

欧洲面临巨大压力,需要停止依赖美国进行自身防御,且该地区的军事预算自冷战以来首次再次增长。这部分新增支出正流向“战略推动者”——即通信及其他系统,尽管它们本身不是武器,但对战争具有非同寻常的影响。欧洲各国正在竞相将更多卫星送入轨道,并让更多监控飞机升空。

Europe is under heavy pressure to stop relying on the US for its own defense, and military budgets in the region are growing again for the first time since the Cold War. A chunk of that new spending is going toward “strategic enablers” — communications and other systems that have an outsized impact on warfare despite not being weapons. European nations are racing to put more satellites in orbit and get more surveillance aircraft in the air.

芬兰埃斯波市ICEYE公司总部展出的第四代ICEYE卫星模型。A model of a Gen4 ICEYE satellite at the company’s headquarters in Espoo, Finland.

欧洲联盟已开始发射近350颗Iris2安全通信卫星中的第一颗。ICEYE最近与诺基亚签署协议,为欧洲国防与安全开发安全通信星座。空客SE数十年来一直在制造卫星,德国国防巨头莱茵金属AG也已进入这一领域,包括通过与ICEYE的合作。

The European Union has begun launching the first of nearly 350 Iris2 secure communications satellites. ICEYE recently signed a deal with Nokia to develop a secure communications constellation for European defense and security. Airbus SE has for decades built satellites, and German defense giant Rheinmetall AG has also entered the game, including through a partnership with ICEYE.

然而,发射速度受限,因为该地区缺乏足够能够将重型军事卫星送入轨道的火箭。欧洲唯一的自主重型火箭助推器是阿丽亚娜6号,该火箭每年从南美洲北部法属圭亚那库鲁发射场大约发射10次。欧洲各国政府希望避免使用SpaceX,因为他们更倾向于寻找自身进入轨道的方式。

The pace of the rollout is limited, however, as the region does not have enough rockets with the power to launch heavy military satellites into orbit. Europe’s only sovereign heavy rocket booster is Ariane 6, which launches about 10 times a year from Kourou in French Guyana on the northern coast of South America. And European governments want to avoid using SpaceX as they prefer to find their own way into orbit.

目前没有任何现有或规划中的欧洲服务能够与星链的规模和能力相媲美。最近的欧洲等效系统是OneWeb,由法国的Eutelsat运营,约有600颗卫星。星链卫星轨道高度约为550公里,大约是OneWeb网络高度的一半。这使得信号传输延迟更短——这是对时间敏感型军事系统的关键因素。10000颗卫星的星链网络还提供更大的数据容量和更好的地面覆盖,且其终端更小,因此可以更易安装在无人机上。

No existing or currently planned European service could match the scale and capability of Starlink. The closest existing European equivalent is OneWeb, a system of around 600 satellites operated by France’s Eutelsat. Starlink satellites orbit at an altitude of around 550 km, around half that of OneWeb’s network. This makes for shorter signal transmission delays — a crucial factor with time-critical military systems. The 10,000-satellite Starlink network also offers greater data capacity and better ground coverage, and its terminals are smaller so they can be mounted more easily on drones.

至于军事观测卫星,欧洲目前没有计划来匹配美国SBIRS的能力。美国目前在轨道上有近250颗军事卫星,而中国约有150颗,俄罗斯约有100颗。还有许多被视为双用途卫星。欧洲整体约有50颗卫星。

When it comes to military observation satellites, there’s no European plan to match the capability of US SBIRS. The US has nearly 250 military satellites in orbit, compared with about 150 for China and about 100 for Russia. Many more are considered dual-use. Europe as a whole has about 50.

除了成像能力外,美国卫星还能拦截通信和其他传输——即所谓的“信号情报”,也可用于战场。

Besides imagery, US satellites can intercept communications and other transmissions — so-called “signals intelligence” that can also be used on the battlefield.

美国太空军还在9月宣布,已在轨道上部署了一款实战武器,尽管官员们拒绝透露这是一套什么样的系统。

The US Space Force also announced in September that it had placed an operational weapon in orbit, although officials declined to say what sort of system it was.

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