新兴市场公司不断飙升的盈利预期正将股票估值推至相比美国同行二十年来的最低点。
Soaring earnings estimates for emerging-market companies are pushing stock valuations to a two-decade low versus US peers.
MSCI新兴市场指数上周的12个月预期市盈率为8.96倍，该指标相对于标普500指数的估值降至47%这一最低水平，创下彭博社自2006年开始汇编该数据以来的最大折价记录。
The MSCI EM index was trading at 8.96 times 12-month projected earnings last week, sending the gauge’s valuation relative to S&P 500 to as low as 47%, the biggest discount on record since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2006.
新兴市场指数今年仍上涨了15%，领先标普500指数约3个百分点。今年利润预测的攀升速度要快得多，从而拉低了估值。
The EM index is still up 15% for the year, leading the S&P 500 by about 3 percentage points. Profit forecasts have climbed at a much faster rate during the year, pushing the valuation lower.
人工智能公司正在推动绝大多数新兴市场盈利的上调。虽然美国的超大规模数据中心运营商正向人工智能开发投入巨资，但发展中国家的科技公司在很大程度上是这一开支的受益者，为基建供应芯片、零部件和硬件。
Artificial intelligence companies are fueling most of the EM earnings upgrades. While US hyperscalers are pumping vast amounts into AI development, developing-nation technology companies are largely on the receiving end of that spending, supplying the chips, components and hardware for the buildout.
这促使分析师纷纷上调新兴市场科技股的盈利预期，尽管对人工智能估值的担忧正促使投资者普遍逃离该行业。
That’s prompting analysts to raise EM tech earnings estimates even as concerns about AI valuations drive investors out of the sector more broadly.
“亚洲科技公司制造的产品（即半导体及相关硬件）价格并未出现回落，”新加坡宝盛银行亚洲研究主管马克·马修斯表示。“美国科技公司普遍上调了给分析师的盈利指引。它们是亚洲半导体及相关硬件公司最大的客户。”MSCI该指数成分股公司平均利润的12个月综合预期今年单单飙升了70%，连续创下历史新高。亚洲在这些上调中占据主导地位，每股收益预测增长了87%。拉丁美洲贡献了28%，而处于多重冲突和债务困境中心的地区——新兴欧洲、中东和非洲——则以8.6%的增长率落后。
“There is no pullback in the prices of the things the Asian tech companies make, namely semiconductors and associated hardware,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer in Singapore. “US technology companies have generally been raising their earnings guidance to analysts. They are the biggest customers of the Asian semiconductor and associated hardware companies.”The blended forward 12-month estimate for average profits of the MSCI gauge’s companies has surged 70% this year alone, reaching successive record highs. Asia dominates in the upgrades with an 87% increase in EPS projections. Latin America chips in with 28%, while emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa — a region at the epicenter of multiple conflicts and debt distress - is lagging with 8.6% growth.
新兴市场信息技术分指数今年已上涨63%，相比之下标普500信息技术指数上涨了23%。新兴市场指标的利润预测也大幅增长了128%。
The subindex for emerging-market information-technology has rallied 63% this year, compared with 23% for the S&P 500 Info-Tech Index. The EM gauge has also seen a 128% increase in profit forecasts.
尽管资金流向和市场主导地位正在从人工智能股票中转移，但这些科技公司继续展现出强劲的盈利势头。台积电发布了好于预期的盈利前景，鼓励分析师进一步上调预测。但由于投资者逃离过度拥挤的人工智能板块，该股票在发布更新后反而下跌了。
While flows and market leadership are shifting away from AI stocks, the tech companies continue to show robust earnings momentum. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a better-than-expected earnings outlook, encouraging analysts to raise their forecasts further. But the stock has fallen since the update as investors flee the overcrowded AI sector.
“对于人工智能投资的可持续性，显然存在着越来越多的担忧，”北欧联合资产管理公司投资经理罗伯特·内斯表示。“然而，我发现特别有趣的是，盈利预测依然极其强劲，而股价却已经崩盘了。”
“There are clearly growing concerns about the sustainability of AI investments,” said Robert Naess, a portfolio manager at Nordea Investment Management. “However, what I find particularly interesting is that earnings estimates remain extremely strong, while share prices have collapsed.”