法国正陷入水深火热之中，它面临着一场政治和经济上的清算，这让美国人感到一种危险的熟悉感。
France is on fire, and it faces a political and an economic reckoning that feels dangerously familiar to Americans.
该国正接近一场财政危机，因为它的开支已经超过了偿还能力。在能源成本上升的推动下，近几个月来债券利率飙升，导致账单到期的速度远超预期。加税和削减政府开支是潜在解决方案的一部分，但这些将在政治上不受欢迎，并可能进一步激怒本已暴怒的公众。在一个严重分裂的政府中，任何可行的解决方案在充满不确定性的预算博弈中都面临着巨大的阻力。这听起来耳熟吗？
The country is nearing a fiscal crisis, because it spent more than it can afford to pay back. The bill is coming due much faster than expected after bond rates surged in recent months, boosted by rising energy costs. Raising taxes and reducing government spending are part of a potential solution, but those would be politically unpopular decisions that could risk further angering an already livid public. Any workable solution faces a steep climb in an uncertain budget battle in a sharply divided government. Does that ring a bell?
越来越多的国家正面临着类似于法国的困境——特别是英国——那里的债务迅速增长、为这些借款融资的成本飙升，以及缺乏做出艰难决定以解决问题的政治意愿，正是当前西方经济学的写照。这也包括美国。但相似之处可能只是表面的。
A growing number of countries are facing struggles similar to France’s — in particular, the United Kingdom — where rapidly growing debt, surging costs to finance that borrowing and insufficient political will to make the uncomfortable decisions to solve the problem are story of Western economics right now. That includes the United States. But similarities can be superficial.
法国的财务压力尤为严重。整个欧洲受波及的风险很低。法国庞大的公共安全网占政府开支的比例远高于美国。美国经济独特的动态意味着美国面临着不会很快成为下一个法国的迫切危险。
France’s financial stress is particularly acute. The risk of contagion throughout Europe is low. France’s enormous public safety net represents a much larger share of government spending than that in the United States. And the unique dynamics of the American economy means the United States faces no imminent danger of becoming the next France.
这些并非新问题：几十年来，欧洲的社会安全网一直走在一条不可持续的道路上，经济学家和一些政客多年来一直警告称，账单终究会到期。但情况正在恶化。伊朗战争加剧了西方的财政问题。
These are not new problems: Europe’s social safety net has been on an unsustainable path for decades, and economists and some politicians have warned for years that the bill would eventually come due. But they’re getting worse. The Iran war exacerbated the West’s fiscal problems.
国际货币基金组织上周报告称，自2月以来，七国集团经济体的10年期政府债券平均收益率增长了1个百分点以上，达到了近20年来的最高水平。
Since February, the G7 economies’ average 10-year government bond yield grew more than 1 percentage point, reaching the highest level in nearly 20 years, the International Monetary Fund reported last week.
国际货币基金组织预测，到本十年末，这七大经济体的公共债务负担预计将集体超过其经济产出。这将是自第二次世界大战以来的首次。
By the end of the decade, those seven economies’ public debt loads are expected to collectively exceed their economic production, the IMF predicts. That would be the first time since World War II.
法国的公共债务约为其国内生产总值的119%，是欧盟目标的两倍，其年度财政预算赤字占国内生产总值的5.4%。
France’s public debt is around 119% of its GDP, double the European Union’s target, and its annual budget deficit is 5.4% of its gross domestic product.
肯特大学社会政策教授彼得·泰勒-古比说：“在欧洲，人们越来越害怕债券市场以及政府借款所需支付的利率。已经到了无法再忽视的地步。如果我们忽视它，就会迎来一场严重的危机。”从纸面上看，美国的情况看起来并没有什么不同：其32万亿美元的公共债务大致相当于美国每年的国内生产总值，而其刚刚结账的2万亿美元预算赤字超过国内生产总值的6%。
“In Europe, people are increasingly scared of the bond market and the interest rates that governments need to pay to borrow,” said Peter Taylor-Gooby, a social policy professor at the University of Kent. “It’s come to a point where you can’t ignore it anymore. If we do, we’ll reach a serious crisis.”On paper, America doesn’t look dissimilar: Its $32 trillion public debt is roughly equal to annual US GDP, and the $2 trillion budget deficit that it just closed the books on is more than 6% of GDP.
资助美国公共债务的成本刚刚突破每年1万亿美元，占联邦预算总额的惊人14%。换句话说，每七个税元中就有一个被用来支付美国借款的利息。
The cost to finance America’s public debt just crossed $1 trillion a year, an astounding 14% of the total federal budget. In other words, one in every seven tax dollars is used just to pay interest on the amount of money the United States is borrowing.
但是，欧洲正在进行的关于削减开支和增税的严肃讨论，在美国则远没有那么严肃。那么，为什么美国没有面临与法国相同的问题呢？
But the serious conversations about cutting back on spending and raising taxes taking place in Europe are considerably less serious in the United States. So why isn’t the United States facing the same problems as France?
美国最大的优势在于它印制了世界储备货币。全球大多数交易都是以美元进行的，包括石油和黄金等关键大宗商品。
The United States’ biggest advantage is that it prints the world’s reserve currency. The majority of global transactions are conducted in US dollars, including key commodities like oil and gold.
对美元的需求依然强劲，很大程度上是因为美元被认为是安全的：美国的透明度和对法治的承诺使美元成为全球金融体系的基石——尽管过去十年中美元的光芒有些黯淡。
Demand for dollars remains robust in large part because they’re considered safe: The United States’ transparency and commitment to the rule of law make the dollar the cornerstone of the global financial system — even if some of the shine has worn off over the past decade.
这也助推了对美国国债的需求，后者被广泛视为最安全的避险资产。即使在全球政府债券抛售之际，美国债券收益率仍低于其他西方经济体。而当股市上周出现下跌时，投资者毫不犹豫地转向其传统避风港，致使国债收益率大幅走低。
That also fuels demand for US Treasuries, widely considered the safest of safe-haven assets. Even in the midst of a global government bond sell-off, US bond rates remain lower than those of other Western economies. And when stocks went on a skid last week, investors were unafraid to turn to their traditional place of refuge, sending Treasury yields sharply lower in the process.
但法国与美国的差异归根结底只有一点。正如詹姆斯·卡维尔所言：“关键是经济，笨蛋。”
But the difference between France and the United States really comes down to one thing. As James Carville said: It’s the economy, stupid.
美国还拥有独特的庞大且多元化经济，其抗冲击能力远强于许多较小的同类经济体。特别是人工智能，正在美国引发一场投资热潮，在其他几个行业似乎停滞或衰退之际托举起经济。
The United States also has a uniquely large and diverse economy that is far less susceptible to shocks than many of its smaller peers. AI in particular is producing an investment boom in the United States that is lifting the economy when several other sectors appear to be stagnating or in decline.
让赤字变得不那么重要的一个关键途径，是保持经济强劲增长。这会让债务在对比下显得微不足道。
One key way to make deficits less relevant is to keep the economy growing strong. That makes the debt look puny by comparison.
因此，各国需要问自己：我们支付的利率是多少——基于我们预期的经济增长，持续支付这一利率对我们而言是否可持续？”
So countries need to ask: What is the rate we’re paying — and is it sustainable for us to keep paying it based on our expected economic growth?”
“法国和英国相当接近，”穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出。“但在美国，人工智能对增长的贡献使我们更有可能妥善管理债务，并更优雅地渡过难关。”经济学家警告：不要将美国不存在迫在眉睫的债务危机与财政负责混为一谈。只是美国比法国或英国更有能力应对这一问题。
“France and the UK are pretty close,” noted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But in the US, AI’s contributions to growth make it more likely we’ll manage our debts and navigate it much more gracefully.”Economists warn: Don’t confuse the lack of a looming debt crisis in the United States with fiscal responsibility. It’s just that it can handle the problem better than France or the UK.
“这并不意味着我们可以因此感到欣慰，”赞迪补充道。“我们只是处于不同的境地。”欧洲任何国家一旦面临财政问题，都会引发对蔓延至全欧洲的传染效应的担忧。但经济学家普遍认为，法国的问题局限于该国境内。
“That doesn’t mean we should take any solace in that,” added Zandi. “We’re just in a different place.”Any time a European country faces a fiscal problem, it raises concerns about a contagion that could spread across the continent. But economists widely view France’s problems as contained within the country.
欧洲央行已暗示，它不需要干预法国的财政状况。但凯投国际宏观经济咨询公司（Capital Economics）欧洲首席经济学家安德鲁·肯宁汉（Andrew Kenningham）指出，如果必须的话，它也可以这样做，并且它处于有利地位，可以大举购买其成员国的债券，以限制任何潜在的传染效应。
The European Central Bank has signaled it would not need to intervene in France’s fiscal situation. But it could if it had to, and it is well-positioned to buy up a bunch of bonds of its member countries to limit any potential contagion effects, noted Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.
相比之下，其他欧洲经济体的赤字也要小得多。预计一些国家今年将实现财政盈余。
Other European economies’ deficits are also much smaller by comparison. Some are expected to run surpluses this year.
法国左翼和右翼的各政党都表示希望留在欧盟——其中包括法国总统热门候选人玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen），这位极右翼候选人曾一度支持“法欧退”（Frexit），但此后已收回了这一承诺。肯宁汉指出，尽管德国的选择党（AfD）主张离开欧盟，但它距离组建政府尚远。
And French political parties across the left and right have said they want to remain with the European Union — including French presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate who once championed “Frexit” but has since backed off that pledge. Although Germany’s AfD party has advocated leaving the EU, it isn’t close to forming a government yet, Kenningham noted.
但一个未知因素可能会引发法国之外的债务危机：美国“X日”。明年某个时候，美国将再次触及债务上限，新一届国会需要与总统唐纳德·特朗普就提高上限进行谈判——这可能会成为一个政治皮球，尤其会受到跛脚鸭总统和可能由民主党控制、更不愿妥协的国会的严峻挑战。
But an X factor could lead to a debt crisis outside France: the US “X date.”At some point next year, the United States will hit its debt ceiling again, and the new Congress will need to negotiate with President Donald Trump to raise it — a political football that could be particularly challenged by a lame duck president and a potentially Democratic-controlled Congress less willing to give in.
未能提高债务上限可能会迫使美国人为造成债务违约，即便它在其他情况下本有能力偿还。
A failure to raise the debt ceiling threatens to force the United States to manufacture a default on its debt, even if it otherwise would be able to pay.
赞迪（Zandi）表示：“你可以构建这样一种情景：我们在明年万圣节前突破债务上限。然后你就会遇到其他问题。”
“You could construct a scenario in which we breach the debt limit by Halloween next year,” said Zandi. “And then you’ve got other issues.”