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选举舞弊很难,让选民相信它存在却很容易Election Fraud Is Hard. Convincing Voters It Exists Is Easy

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你享有的宪法权利。摄影:蒂姆·埃文斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社Your constitutional right Photographer: Tim Evans/AFP/Getty Images

你可能已经听说过关于11月大选可能受到干扰的各种不祥假设:移民执法人员或联邦军队在投票站游荡,联邦官员没收选票和投票机,以及唐纳德·特朗普总统发布行政令推迟或取消选举。法院和法律专家已给出充分理由,说明上述每一种潜在的选举干扰情形都不太可能发生。但这些威胁已达到其目的:人们心存疑虑。

You’ve likely heard the ominous what-if scenarios about election disruptions in November: immigration agents or federal troops roaming polling places, federal officials seizing ballots and voting machines, and President Donald Trump issuing an executive order postponing or cancelling the election. Courts and legal experts have given solid reasons that each one of those potential election disruptions is unlikely. But the threats have served their purpose: People are harboring doubts.

联邦政府无需干预投票过程的机制就能扰乱选举。目前不法分子干扰中期选举最容易的方式,就是让恐惧和不信任搅乱我们的头脑。通过恐吓民众,让他们以为去投票站会遭遇骚扰,或对投票过程的公正性产生怀疑,政府正在播下选举结果不可信的种子。

The federal government doesn’t have to interfere with the mechanics of the voting process to disrupt the election. The easiest way for bad actors to interfere in the midterm elections right now is to let fear and distrust mess with our minds. By intimidating people into thinking they’ll face harassment at the polls or casting doubt on the integrity of the process, the administration is planting the seeds that the results can’t be trusted.

我最近采访了一位居住在迈阿密、来自委内瑞拉的美国归化公民。她是一位年轻的职场人士,已婚并育有子女,直到最近还是当地政党的活跃成员。她是一位可靠的选民,但她告诉我,今年她不会去现场投票。让她所在社区陷入恐慌的移民与海关执法局(ICE)突击搜捕行动,使她和邻居们变得孤立且恐惧。

I recently spoke with a naturalized US citizen from Venezuela who lives in Miami. She’s a young professional, married with kids, and until recently had been an active member of her local political party. She’s a reliable voter, but she told me she won’t be voting in person this year. The ICE raids that have terrorized her community have left her and her neighbors isolated and afraid.

“我不想去现场投票,因为我非常害怕他们会调动国民警卫队,”她对我说,“你知道,我有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)。”这就是特朗普把我们带到的境地:美国公民因担心人身安全而不敢行使宪法赋予的投票权。

“I don’t want to go and vote in person, because I am terrified that they’re going to bring out the National Guard,” she told me. “You know, I have PTSD.”This is where Trump has brought us: US citizens fear risking their safety to exercise their constitutional right to vote.

过去21个月,联邦政府对州选举主权发动了前所未有的攻击。特朗普签署两项行政令,试图从根本上左右州选举政策。司法部起诉30个州和哥伦比亚特区,以获取敏感选民数据。白宫扣押了佐治亚州2020年大选的选票。特朗普今年早些时候还在黄金时段演讲中重提其选举阴谋论。

For the last 21 months, the federal government has mounted an unprecedented attack on state sovereignty over elections. Trump signed two executive orders that seek to radically dictate state election policy. The Department of Justice sued 30 states and the District of Columbia to gain access to sensitive voter data. The White House seized Georgia’s ballots from the 2020 election. And Trump tried to rehash his election conspiracy theories in a prime-time speech earlier this year.

从县法院到美国最高法院的法官们驳回了其中大部分内容。但这一努力已削弱选民信心。佐治亚大学对超过1.1万名选民的调查发现,只有58%的共和党人、63%的民主党人和49%的无党派人士信任全国选票将被准确计票。美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心最近的一项民调发现,只有34%的美国成年人“非常”或“相当”信任政府对选举结果的认证,而2024年这一比例为40%。

Judges from county courthouses to the US Supreme Court have rebuffed much of it. But the effort has undercut voter confidence. A University of Georgia survey of more than 11,000 voters found only 58% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, and 49% of Independents trusted that votes would be counted accurately nationwide. And a recent poll from AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 34% of US adults trust government certifications of election results “a great deal” or “quite a bit,” down from 40% in 2024.

有时,一则标题就足以播下怀疑的种子。2016年,俄罗斯黑客入侵伊利诺伊州选民登记数据库时,情况正是如此。黑客潜伏数周未被发现,直到他们每秒访问数千条记录,伊利诺伊州选举官员才关闭了系统。

Sometimes all it takes is a headline to sow doubt. That’s what happened in 2016 when Russian hackers got access to the Illinois state voter registration database. The hackers went unnoticed for weeks and only when they started accessing thousands of records per second did Illinois election officials shut the system down.

“俄罗斯想要引起注意,”非党派选举监督网站“选举创新与研究中心”负责人大卫·贝克说,“他们希望美国人认为,我们的外国对手拥有……改变我们选举的能力。”从那以后,美国的对手,特别是俄罗斯、伊朗和中国,一直专注于操纵社交媒体,让选民,尤其是输掉选举的候选人的支持者,相信他们的选举被窃取了。

“Russia wanted to be noticed,” said David Becker, who runs the non-partisan election watchdog site The Center for Election Innovation and Research. “They wanted the American people to think that our foreign adversaries had … the ability to change our elections.”Since then, US adversaries, particularly Russia, Iran and China, have focused on manipulating social media to make voters, particularly supporters of losing candidates, believe that their elections were stolen.

幸运的是,数百万选民并未被这些全球性的或国内的恐吓手段所吓倒。统计数据显示,在提前投票开始两周后,全国范围内已投出的选票数量创下了历史新高;许多州的投票人数甚至超过了2018年、2022年和2024年的纪录。

Fortunately, millions of voters haven’t been intimidated by these global or domestic scare tactics. Records indicate that two weeks into early voting, an unprecedented number of votes have already been cast across the country, in many states exceeding records broken in 2018, 2022 and 2024.

各州的选举官员也以前所未有的方式团结一致,共同抵制政府任何试图干预选举的行为。

And in unprecedented fashion, state elections officials have locked arms in a bipartisan effort to resist any attempt by the administration to interfere.

“他们采取了传统的‘全面应对各种风险’的策略,”领导全国州务卿协会的明尼苏达州州务卿史蒂夫·西蒙表示。这些官员已经做好了应对各种选举干扰的准备,包括自然灾害、炸弹威胁以及电力中断等各种情况。贝克尔补充说,今年他们还特别防范了“联邦政府的干预”。各州都组建了法律团队,以便在极少数联邦军队介入选举现场的情况下能够迅速采取行动。

State officials are taking a traditional “all hazards approach,” said Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon, who leads the National Association of Secretaries of State. They’re prepared to handle election disruptions involving everything from natural disasters and bomb threats to power outages. This year, he told me, they’ve added “federal interference.”States have amassed teams of lawyers who are prepared to act quickly in the unlikely event that federal troops do show up, said Becker.

他还解释说:“如果联邦官员试图没收选举设备,这些团队也会立即向法院提起诉讼,以确保选举程序的公正性——因为在选举设备被非法扣押之前,必须阻止这一行为的发生。”

They are also prepared to get before a judge if federal officials attempt to seize election equipment and get a ruling “before the chain of custody is irrevocably damaged,” he explained.

需要提醒的是:任何人下令联邦军队进入投票站都属于违法行为,最高可被判处五年监禁、罚款,并被取消公职资格。联邦法律明确禁止移民和海关执法官员进入投票站。此外,从实际操作角度来看,特朗普根本不可能取消选举——因为全国的选举工作是由成千上万的官员负责的,而非白宫能够单独决定。

But as a reminder, it’s a crime for anyone to order federal troops to a polling place — a violation punishable by up to five years in prison, a fine and disqualification from public office. Federal laws bar Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents from the polls. And it’s logistically impossible for Trump to cancel an election because thousands of officials across the country control elections, not the White House.

在接下来的几周里,互联网可能会成为继续制造混乱的温床。让我们保持警惕,感谢那些为维护选举公正而辛勤工作的官员们,不要上当受骗。

The internet is an inviting host for allowing the mischief to continue in the weeks ahead. Let’s keep our wits about us. Thank the hard-working elections officials who keep the system sound, and don’t be duped.

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