伊朗战争和俄乌冲突正在造成“世界农业的多向挤压”，可能演变成危机，一份新报告发现。
The Iran war and the Ukraine- Russia conflict are creating a "multidirectional squeeze on world agriculture" that could spiral into a crisis, a new report finds.
为何重要：战争与极端天气交织，威胁全球粮食供应并推高价格，尤其是在脆弱经济体中。
Why it matters: Wars and extreme weather are colliding to threaten global food supplies and drive up prices, especially in vulnerable economies.
- 报告探讨了厄尔尼诺现象如何加剧关键化肥原料供应受限、农场燃料成本上升等问题。
• The report explores how the El Niño phenomenon could compound the problems of restricted supplies of key fertilizer ingredients, higher fuel costs on the farm and more.
- 标普全球研究院的这份报告是对该主题罕见的全方位审视。
• The S&P Global Institute report is an unusually holistic look at the topic. Driving the news:
新闻背景：该分析伴随国际货币基金组织关于粮食的新警告一同发布。
The analysis comes alongside new warnings about food from the International Monetary Fund.
- 国际货币基金组织上周发布的《世界经济展望》预计，今年化肥价格总体将上涨10%，粮食成本将在2026年上涨5%、2027年上涨2.4%，尽管这取决于地区。
• Its World Economic Outlook last week sees an overall 10% increase in fertilizer prices this year and food costs rising by 5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, though it depends on the region.
- “更高的能源和粮食价格可能对贫困和粮食安全产生严重影响”，并威胁脆弱经济体的政治稳定，国际货币基金组织警告说。
• "Higher energy and food prices could have severe effects on poverty and food security" and threaten political stability in vulnerable economies, the IMF warned.
现状：标普指出，粮食生产者需要天然气和硫磺的稳定供应用于化肥生产，需要柴油用于农业机械和粮食运输，并需要畅通的海上航道进行贸易。
State of play: Food producers need steady supplies of natural gas and sulfur for fertilizer, diesel for farm machinery and food transport, and open sea lanes for trade, S&P notes.
- “冲突现在正同时考验所有这些要素，正如厄尔尼诺现象正在考验收成，”这家研究和咨询公司的报告指出。
• "Conflict is now testing all of them at once, just as El Niño tests the harvest," states the report from the research and consulting firm.
- “风险正在增加，特别是对低收入国家而言，那里的粮食成本约占家庭支出的一半，”报告指出。
• "The risk is increasing, especially for low-income countries, where food costs amount to about half of household spending," it states. Zoom out:
放眼全球：标普发现，这些中断可能影响全球农业生产，从巴西的大豆和玉米到澳大利亚的小麦。
The disruptions could affect agricultural production worldwide, from soybeans and corn in Brazil to wheat in Australia, S&P finds. The intrigue:
深层看点：标普报告还警告了一个受关注相对较少的问题。
The S&P report also warns of something that has received somewhat less attention.
- 柴油供应紧张不仅提高了农民的成本。它还与支持生物燃料的政策相互作用，使生物柴油生产更具吸引力。连锁效应在于，在某些地区，燃料作物的价值超过了粮食作物。标普全球提供的几组数据展示了重叠的威胁。
• The diesel supply crunch doesn't just raise costs for farmers. It also works alongside pro-biofuels policies to make biodiesel production more attractive. • "The knock-on effect is that, in some regions, crops for fuel become more valuable than crops for food." A few stats via S&P illustrate the overlapping threats.
- 中东出口硫磺（一种化肥原料）的价格在7月达到每公吨1000美元的纪录高位，而年初价格为历史高位的每公吨500美元。
• Middle Eastern prices for exported sulfur, a fertilizer ingredient, reached a record $1,000 per metric ton in July, after starting the year at a historically high $500 per metric ton.
- 全球硫磺贸易通常有47%通过霍尔木兹海峡。
• 47% of the global sulfur trade normally goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
- 在印度尼西亚，棕榈油的工业用途（主要用于生物柴油）预计将达到2015-16年水平的约五倍。
• In Indonesia, industrial use of palm oil, largely for biodiesel, is expected to be roughly five times its 2015-16 level.
核心结论：全球粮食危机绝非必然发生。
The bottom line: A global food crisis is by no means certain.
- 但标普全球警告称，如果战争持续扰乱能源和化肥供应，且极端天气减损关键地区的收成，“此类危机的要素将逐渐就位”。
• But if wars keep disrupting energy and fertilizer supplies, and weather cuts harvests in key regions, "the elements of such a crisis will be falling into place," S&P warns.