欧洲天然气价格升破每兆瓦时90欧元，为近四年来首次，随着欧洲步入冬季供暖旺季，再次引发能源紧缺的担忧。
European natural gas climbed above €90 for the first time in almost four years, raising the threat of a renewed energy crunch as Europe heads into the peak winter heating season.
基准荷兰期货上涨高达2.4%，报每兆瓦时90.16欧元，为2022年12月以来最高，较伊朗战争爆发前水平大约翻了三倍。电价也大幅上涨，德国明年合约升至2023年7月以来最高水平。
Benchmark Dutch futures rose as much as 2.4% to €90.16 a megawatt-hour, the highest since December 2022 and roughly triple their level before the Iran war. Power also jumped, with Germany’s year-ahead contract reaching its highest level since July 2023.
价格仍远低于上一轮能源危机的峰值，但最新涨势正给消费者和工业界带来更大压力。各国政府迄今抵制恢复代价高昂的限价和减税措施，财政紧张和高借贷成本令其对再推出一轮能源补贴缺乏意愿。
Prices remain well below the peaks of the last energy crisis, but the latest surge is piling pressure on consumers and industry. Governments have so far resisted a return to costly price caps and tax cuts, with stretched budgets and high borrowing costs leaving little appetite for another round of energy support.
欧洲今冬可能不得不出高价争夺足够货源，亚洲液化天然气需求为天气转冷时出现更激烈的竞价战埋下伏笔。眼下欧洲天然气储存设施库存约为75%，为有记录以来（2009年起）同期最低。作为该地区最大经济体，德国形势更为严峻，库存仅略高于61%。
Europe may have to pay up to attract enough cargoes this winter, with liquefied natural gas demand from Asia setting the stage for more intense bidding wars when colder weather sets in. It comes as the region’s gas-storage sites are now about 75% full, the lowest for the season in records going back to 2009. The situation is even more acute in Germany, the region’s biggest economy, where levels are just over 61%.
本月天气温和，让欧洲能源公司获得喘息空间，得以以快于10月正常水平的速度向储存设施注入更多燃料。然而，交易员仍保持高度警惕。波斯湾天然气出口去年约占全球液化天然气五分之一，因战争仍受阻，短期内看不到恢复迹象。亚洲液化天然气价格也升至2022年以来最高。
Mild weather this month has given European energy companies some breathing room to add more fuel into storage at a faster-than-normal pace for October. Yet, traders remain on high alert. Gas exports from the Persian Gulf, which accounted for about a fifth of global LNG last year, remain disrupted by the war, with no recovery in sight. Asian LNG prices also jumped to highest since 2022.
本周早些时候，伊朗称“别无选择”，只能主张对霍尔木兹海峡实施控制，但可为友好国家确保安全通行。针对油气船只的袭击升级，加剧了对货运恢复速度的担忧。
Earlier this week, Iran said it has “no choice” but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, although it could ensure safe passage for friendly nations. Attacks on oil and gas vessels have intensified, adding to concern over how quickly shipments could recover.
“地缘政治局势的恶化可能会在短期内推高能源价格，”拉博银行（Rabobank）的资深能源分析师弗洛伦斯·施密特（Florence Schmit）和乔·德劳拉（Joe DeLaura）在一份报告中指出。“能源价格进一步飙升的风险依然很高。”作为欧洲天然气价格基准的荷兰当月期货价格在阿姆斯特丹时间下午1点59分时上涨了2.2%，达到每兆瓦时89.96欧元。
“Geopolitical deterioration could push prices higher in the near term,” Rabobank Senior Energy Strategists Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura said in a note. “The risks of further energy price spikes remain high.”Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded up 2.2% at €89.96 a megawatt-hour by 1:59 p.m. in Amsterdam.