由于基准油价从数周来的最高水平回落，美国国债价格随之上涨，这促使交易者减少了对美联储明年加息的预期。
Treasuries rose as benchmark oil prices retreated from the highest levels in weeks, prompting traders to trim wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes over the coming year.
此次价格上涨导致各期限国债的收益率下降了3至6个基点，其中长期国债的收益率降幅尤为明显。市场部分挽回了周一的损失——当时美国科技股反弹，从而推高了人们对国债等避险资产的需求。
The rally lowered yields across maturities by three to six basis points, led by longer-term debt. The market recovered some of the losses it sustained Monday, when US technology shares rebounded from a slide that stoked demand for haven assets including Treasuries last week.
随着油价在接近2月份以来的高位后暴跌，收益率的下降幅度进一步加大。虽然今年以来油价一直是影响国债收益率的主要因素，但在上周股市下跌（尤其是受益于人工智能投资的股票表现不佳）的情况下，债券投资者基本忽略了油价的影响。周二，半导体股在早盘下跌后重新企稳。
The drop in yields accelerated as oil prices tumbled after approaching the high end of their ranges since February. While oil prices have been a dominant driver of Treasury yield for much of this year, bond investors largely ignored them last week amid a slump in stocks that have benefited from investment in artificial intelligence. Semiconductor shares stabilized Tuesday after early losses.
“上周因人工智能相关风险而引发的避险交易仍在利率市场中占据主导地位，似乎是推动今日国债价格走势的主要因素；不过油价的下跌也确实对收益率产生了一定的下行压力，”RBC Capital Markets的美国利率策略师Izaac Brook表示。
“The AI risk-off trade that bubbled up last week is still top of mind in rates markets and seems to be driving the price action today, although the move lower in oil also helped put some downward pressure on yields,” said Izaac Brook, US rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
纽约时间上午8点前，10年期国债的收益率约为5.12%，下降了约2个基点；与此同时，美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格首次突破每桶110美元大关（自4月以来首次达到这一水平）。随后油价回落，国债收益率也随之降至5.08%以下。
The 10-year Treasury yield was about two basis points lower near 5.12% shortly before 8 a.m. New York time as US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures topped $110 a barrel for the first time since April. It fell to under 5.08% as oil erased its gain and briefly fell more than 2%.
2月底美国对伊朗的军事打击引发了油价飙升，进而加剧了美国的通胀压力，促使美联储于上月首次加息。交易者普遍预计美联储将在今年年底前再次加息，并在明年年底前总共加息三次，这一预期支撑了短期国债价格的走势。
The surge in oil prices unleashed by the US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February re-ignited US inflation, leading the Fed to raise interest rates last month for the first time since 2023. Traders continue to fully price in another hike by the end of this year and a total of three by the end of next year, underpinning short-term Treasury yields.
美国国债收益率周二反映了油价的日内波动。最初的回落源于一份未经证实的报道，称卡塔尔和巴基斯坦提出新方案，旨在重启谈判以结束伊朗战争，随后跌势停滞。
Treasury yields mirrored intraday volatility in oil prices Tuesday. The initial retreat, sparked by an unconfirmed report that Qatar and Pakistan had issued a fresh proposal to revive negotiations to bring an end to the Iran war, subsequently stalled.
另外周二，美国经济背景出现软化迹象，令国债受益。9月营建开工数下降5.2%，经年化折算为122万户，低于彭博社经济学家调查中的所有预估。待售房屋销售也跌至历史低位，因利率上升推高了抵押贷款成本。
Separately Tuesday, Treasuries benefited from evidence of a softening US economic backdrop. September housing starts fell 5.2% to an annualized rate of 1.22 million, trailing all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Pending home sales also fell to a record low, as rising interest rates drove up the cost of mortgages.
“刚刚发布的美国数据几乎全线呈现利好债市的色彩，”荷兰国民银行（ING Groep NV）美洲区研究主管帕德雷克·加维（Padhraic Garvey）表示。
“There is a bond bullish tint to the US data just released, pretty much across the board,” said Padhraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING Groep NV.