南非财政部长埃诺赫·戈东瓦纳即将推出一项财政锚定机制，以巩固修复国家公共财政所取得的进展，因为伊朗战争正在考验这些成果。
African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is poised to unveil a fiscal anchor to entrench progress made in repairing the nation’s public finances as the Iran war puts those gains to the test.
在开普敦当地时间下午2点向议员提交的中期预算更新中，戈东瓦纳普遍预计将概述一套框架，以使政府债务保持在可持续轨道上。该计划将寻求将好于预期的收入、受控的支出以及不断增长的初级盈余转化为持久的财政收益。
In his medium-term budget update to lawmakers in Cape Town at 2 p.m., Godongwana is widely expected to outline a framework to keep government debt on a sustainable path. The plan would seek to turn stronger-than-expected revenue, contained spending and growing primary surpluses into lasting fiscal gains.
“虽然有理由对财政数据持乐观态度，但我认为真正的考验将在于国家财政部能否证明这种改善是可持续的，并以可信、可执行的财政纪律为基础，”Old Mutual Ltd.经济研究主管Keabetswe Mojapelo表示。“除非得到具有约束力的法律框架支持，最好是宪法层面的保护，否则它有沦为未来政府可随意修改的单纯政策承诺的风险。”
“While there is reason to be optimistic about the fiscal numbers, I think the real test will be whether National Treasury can demonstrate that the improvement is sustainable and underpinned by credible, enforceable fiscal discipline,” said Keabetswe Mojapelo, head of economic research at Old Mutual Ltd. “Unless it is supported by a binding legal framework, ideally with constitutional protection, it risks becoming little more than a policy commitment that future administrations can amend at their discretion.”
彭博社调查的10位经济学家中，有4位预计政府将推出以债务占国内生产总值比重为目标的财政规则，3位预期将采用一组指标组合，其余3位则预计将正式采用主预算初级收支平衡。
Four of 10 economists polled by Bloomberg see the government introducing a fiscal rule targeting debt as a share of gross domestic product, three expect a combination of indicators and the remainder anticipate the main-budget primary balance being formally adopted.
自2021年以来，国家财政部一直将初级盈余（即收入超过非利息支出）作为非正式的财政指引。在2月份的预算中，财政部预测2026-27财年将实现连续第四个初级盈余，占GDP的1.6%。
The National Treasury has used the primary surplus, where revenue exceeds non-interest spending, as an informal fiscal guide since 2021. In its February budget, Treasury forecast a fourth consecutive surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2026-27.
财政部也已发出信号，不愿将自己束缚在僵化的数值目标上，正在起草立法以将审慎财政原则写入法律，在不强制大幅削减开支或增税的情况下巩固整顿成果。
It has also signaled reluctance to tie itself to a rigid numerical target and is working on legislation to enshrine sound fiscal principles in law and preserve the gains from consolidation without forcing sharp spending cuts or tax increases.
彭博社调查的大多数经济学家预计，该锚定机制将在2028年底前具有法律约束力，从而约束财政政策并提高透明度和议会问责制。
Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the anchor to become legally binding by the end of 2028, constraining fiscal policy and increasing transparency and parliamentary accountability.
这一框架将标志着南非公共财政的一个转折点。在经历了多年疲弱的经济增长、持续的赤字和不断上升的借贷推高债务之后，国库预计将显示债务终于见顶。
The framework would arrive at a turning point for South Africa’s public finances. After years in which weak economic growth, persistent deficits and rising borrowing pushed debt higher, Treasury is expected to show it has finally peaked.
经济学家预计，本财年债务占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重将从2025-26财年的78.9%下降至77.5%。他们还预测，政府将在2026-27财年跑赢其2月份的预测，当时预计合并预算赤字为GDP的4%，而现在预计赤字将为3.8%。
Economists see gross debt declining to 77.5% of GDP this fiscal year from 78.9% in 2025-26. They also predict the government will beat its February forecast for a consolidated budget deficit of 4% of GDP in 2026-27, projecting a shortfall of 3.8%.
他们预计，国库将把2026-27财年的税收总收入预测上调200亿兰特（约合12亿美元），这得益于更强劲的矿业收入。分析师还认为，这笔意外之财可用于偿还债务、增加基础设施支出，或提供进一步的燃油价格减免，因为乌克兰和伊朗的战争给全球能源供应带来压力，推高当地成本至创纪录高位。
They expect the Treasury will raise its 2026-27 gross tax-revenue forecast by 20 billion rand ($1.2 billion), helped by stronger mining receipts. The analysts also see scope for the windfall to be used to reduce debt, boost infrastructure spending or provide further fuel-price relief as the wars in Ukraine and Iran strain global energy supplies and drive up local costs to record highs.
他们预计，财政前景的改善将在明年前获得信用评级上调的回报，使南非距离投资级仅差一级。这也可能提振投资情绪。
They anticipate the improving fiscal picture will be rewarded with credit-rating upgrades by next year, leaving South Africa one notch below investment grade. It could also lift investment sentiment.
自10月1日以来，兰特兑美元已升值近2%，跻身表现最好的新兴市场货币之列。南非10年期国债收益率稳定在9%左右。即便如此，国库仍清楚全球动荡给经济带来的压力。
The rand has gained almost 2% against the dollar since Oct. 1, among the best-performing currencies in emerging markets. South Africa’s 10-year government yield has been steady around 9%. Even so, the Treasury is mindful of the pressure global turmoil is putting on the economy.
能源价格飙升加剧了通胀压力，并威胁经济增长。这一冲击可能迫使国库下调GDP预测并重新评估收入预期，而此时大宗商品高价带来的提振也在消退。
Surging energy prices have added to inflationary pressures and threaten economic growth. The shock may force Treasury to lower its GDP projections and reassess revenue forecasts, at a time when the boost from elevated commodity prices is also fading.
毕马威（KPMG）经济学家弗兰克·布莱克莫尔（Frank Blackmore）表示：“矿业的生产端已从高位回落。”他指出，由大宗商品高价带来的较高税收收入“不会在今年剩余时间里持续。”国库此前预测2026年经济增长1.6%。Citadel首席经济学家马尔滕·阿克曼（Maarten Ackerman）估计增幅仅为0.8%。
“The production side of mining has come off its highs,” said Frank Blackmore, an economist at KPMG, noting that higher tax revenue from elevated commodity prices won’t “be around for the rest of this year.”Treasury had forecast economic growth of 1.6% in 2026. Maarten Ackerman, chief economist at Citadel, estimates it will expand just 0.8%.
尽管如此，财政起点可能比财政部在2月份预期的更为强劲，这为戈东瓦纳在恶化的全球背景下提供了一定缓冲。
Still, the fiscal starting point may prove stronger than Treasury anticipated in February, providing Godongwana with some cushion against the deteriorating global backdrop.
“幸运的是，尽管有所有这些因素，情况可能比他们在2月份预期的要强劲得多，”阿克曼说。“他们已经开始做出调整，表示不能指望特别是来自大宗商品、矿业公司和大宗商品周期的强劲税收征管会持续下去。”
“Fortunately, despite all of that, it is potentially going to be much stronger than what they expected in February,” Ackerman said. “They already started making adjustments to say you can’t expect the strong tax collection from specifically the commodities, the mining companies and the commodity cycle to continue.”