迪拜，10月21日电 —— 以色列下周的大选可能会更换领导人，但不会改变其战略：伊朗将继续是其主要对手，军事力量仍将是其首选工具，巴勒斯坦建国前景依然渺茫，地区决策者和分析人士表示。
DUBAI, Oct 21 - Israel's election next week may change its leader, but not its strategy: Iran will remain its chief adversary, military force will continue to be its preferred tool and Palestinian statehood a distant prospect, regional policymakers and analysts say.
这是因为支撑以色列政策的战略假设，已因2023年10月7日巴勒斯坦武装组织哈马斯对以色列南部社区的袭击，以及加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的战争而变得更加坚定。
That is because the strategic assumptions underpinning Israeli policy were hardened by the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israeli communities by Palestinian militant group Hamas and by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
分析人士表示，如果有变化，以色列的安全政策可能会更加强硬，因为总理内塔尼亚胡在极右翼联盟伙伴支持下获胜，可能会让他更有胆量升级与伊朗的战争，加强以色列对被占约旦河西岸的控制，并将外交手段进一步推向边缘。以色列的安全教条现在建立在三大支柱之上：击垮伊朗、在边境之外维持缓冲区、以及使用武力威慑敌人。
If anything, Israel could toughen its security policy, the analysts said, as victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of far-right coalition partners could embolden him to step up the war with Iran, tighten Israel's grip on the occupied West Bank and push diplomacy further to the margins. Israel's security doctrine now rests on three pillars: breaking Iran, holding buffer zones beyond its borders and using force to deter enemies.
分析人士表示，真正的分歧在于程度而非方向——即以色列以多大力度作战、在约旦河西岸将犹太人定居点扩张到何种地步，以及是否有任何领导人选择外交途径。
The real divide is one of degree rather than direction — how aggressively Israel fights its wars, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether any leader opts for diplomacy, the analysts said.
从德黑兰到利雅得，周二的大选不被视为潜在的转折点，而被视为对中东是否正陷入长期对抗的一种检验，在这种对抗中，战争此起彼伏，而深层冲突却始终未获解决。
From Tehran to Riyadh, Tuesday's election is not seen as a potential turning point but as a test of whether the Middle East is settling into a long confrontation, where wars ebb and flow while the underlying conflicts are unresolved.
“如果内塔尼亚胡当选，他会做任何他认为想做的事，”内塔尼亚胡的前顾问阿维夫·布欣斯基说。“定居点扩张将继续。针对伊朗、哈马斯和真主党的战争将继续。”
"If Netanyahu is elected, he'll do whatever he thinks he wants to do," said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu. "Expansion of the settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue."
“你现在看到的就是选举后将看到的，甚至可能更具侵略性，”他说。“只要伊朗处于这种境地，谈论巴勒斯坦就是在浪费时间。”内塔尼亚胡周日表示，以色列必须优先考虑“预防和进攻，而非遏制和防御”，包括发动先发制人的打击以挫败新出现的威胁，同时确立以色列作为地区强国的地位，并最大限度地提高其在武器装备方面的独立性。
"What you see now is what you'll see after the election, maybe even more aggressively," he said. "As long as Iran is in such a situation, it's a waste of time talking about Palestine.”Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritise “prevention and offence over containment and defence”, including pre-emptive strikes to thwart emerging threats, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximising its independence in armaments.
为何路线不太可能改变这场选举将内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼利库德集团及其极端民族主义盟友，与由前军方首长加迪·艾森科特领导的“雅沙尔”党领衔的反对派阵营对立起来。巴勒斯坦分析师加桑·哈提布认为，以色列对巴政策不存在根本性转变的前景，以色列政党竞相展示更强硬的立场，因为民意进一步向右转移。
WHY THE COURSE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE The election pits Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib sees no prospect of a fundamental shift in policy towards the Palestinians, with Israeli political parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion moves further to the right.
“政策的实质保持不变：反对巴勒斯坦建国，支持进一步扩张定居点。在这方面，他们全都一致，”他说。
“The substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement,” he said.
由内塔尼亚胡对手领导的政府可能会寻求通过遏制部分定居者暴力行径，或以较低调的方式推进定居点扩张，来修复以色列的国际地位。但哈提布表示，此类变化将是风格上的转变，而非实质上的转变。
A government led by Netanyahu's opponents might seek to repair Israel's international standing by curbing some settler violence or pursuing settlement expansion with less fanfare. But such changes would be a shift in style rather than substance, al-Khatib said.
卡内基中东中心的迈克尔·扬表示，以色列的安全机构和其大部分政治阶层拥有共同的战略观，核心在于对抗伊朗、维持“前沿防御”以及保持军事威慑，这减少了大规模政策转变的空间。曾在约旦河西岸开展研究的国际危机组织约斯特·希尔特曼表示，不断升级的定居者暴力、日益加剧的巴勒斯坦人挫败感以及“政治前景”的缺失，已造成极易引爆的局势，哪怕是一个微小的诱因也可能引发更大规模的起义。
Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel's security establishment and much of its political class share a common strategic outlook, centred on confronting Iran, maintaining "forward defence" and preserving military deterrence, reducing the scope for big policy shifts. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has conducted research in the West Bank, said growing settler violence, mounting Palestinian frustration and the absence of a "political horizon" had created combustible conditions, where even a minor trigger could spark a wider uprising. 'VENOMOUS OCTOPUS'
“毒章鱼”一些地区决策者质疑，以色列与伊朗的对抗是否已成为中东安全的组织原则，而不论谁赢得大选。
Some regional policymakers ask whether Israel's confrontation with Iran has become the organising principle of Middle East security, regardless of who wins the election.
美国总统特朗普赞扬内塔尼亚胡是“伟大的战士总理”，这强化了外界的预期：如果内塔尼亚胡继续掌权，他将试图完成针对德黑兰的行动。
US President Donald Trump's praise of Netanyahu as a "great warrior prime minister" has reinforced expectations that the Israeli leader will try to finish the campaign against Tehran if he retains power.
内塔尼亚胡已明确表示，他的雄心不止于遏制伊朗，而是要推翻其神职统治者。
Netanyahu has made clear his ambitions extend beyond containing Iran to toppling its clerical rulers.
“完成任务意味着推翻伊朗的恐怖政权，那个毒章鱼的头颅，”他在本周的一次演讲中说。
“Completing the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus,” he said in a speech this week.
但军事和政治分析人士质疑：除非美国和以色列发动地面入侵，否则是否真的能迫使德黑兰放弃其在这场被视作“生存之战”中的核心安全利益。经过数月的战争，伊朗或许认为自己有能力坚持下去，并继续通过地区盟友施加压力。杨（Young）表示：“这确实是一个僵局；伊朗人完全有可能比特朗普更持久地执政。”分析人士指出，黎巴嫩的真主党（Hezbollah）和加沙地带的哈马斯（Hamas）虽然受到了削弱，但伊朗支持的各类组织网络依然存在，这场冲突反而可能增强德黑兰发展核威慑力量的决心。
But military and political analysts question whether anything short of a US-Israeli ground invasion would force Tehran to abandon what it views as its core security interests in what it sees as an existential fight. After surviving months of war, Iran may be betting it can outlast its opponents while continuing to exert pressure through regional allies. "This is a quagmire," Young said. "The Iranians can outlast Trump." Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been weakened, but the broader network of Iran-aligned groups has survived and the conflict could strengthen Tehran's determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent, the analysts said.
尽管内塔尼亚胡在阿拉伯世界引发了诸多担忧，一些海湾国家领导人仍认为他是最有可能让伊朗保持受压状态的政治人物。
For all the alarm Netanyahu causes in the Arab world, some Gulf leaders still see him as the Israeli politician most likely to keep Iran under pressure.
这让他们陷入了困境：他们反对内塔尼亚胡的扩张主义政策，但又希望遏制伊朗的影响力。
This creates a dilemma for them. They oppose what they view as his expansionist policies but want Iranian influence curbed.
“内塔尼亚胡在加沙、约旦河西岸、叙利亚和黎巴嫩的政策极具破坏性，”海湾研究中心（Gulf Research Center）主席阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·萨格尔（Abdulaziz Sager）说，“对于伊朗而言，必须在冲突进一步升级之前达成某种和解。如果不对伊朗的行为加以限制，该地区可能会陷入伊朗的霸权统治之下，持续长达50年。”（路透社）
"Netanyahu's policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon are damaging," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center. "As for Iran, a settlement is needed before the conflict escalates further. If Iran's role is not curbed, the region could be heading toward 50 years of Iranian hegemony." REUTERS