乌克兰本周对俄罗斯发动大规模无人机袭击，打击关键石油基础设施，表明基辅意图阻止克里姆林宫违抗美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的意愿，增加柴油出口。
Ukraine launched massive drone assaults against Russia this week, hitting key oil infrastructure and signaling Kyiv intends to block the Kremlin from increasing diesel exports in defiance of President Donald Trump.
据国有媒体报道，仅周日一天，乌克兰就有超过1000架无人机袭击俄罗斯，这是今年最大规模的袭击之一。袭击点燃了俄罗斯第二大城市、普京总统故乡圣彼得堡的一个石油出口终端。
More than 1,000 Ukrainian drones targeted Russia on Sunday alone in one of the largest attacks this year, according to state media reports. The strikes set ablaze an oil export terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city and President Vladimir Putin's hometown.
基辅已结束其对特朗普10月11日宣布的乌俄之间能源停火的短暂遵守。莫斯科从一开始就无视该停火，基辅誓言进行报复。
Kyiv has ended its brief adherence to an energy ceasefire that Trump declared between Ukraine and Russia on Oct. 11. Moscow ignored that truce from the start and Kyiv vowed to retaliate.
哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心俄罗斯石油行业专家塔季亚娜·米特罗娃表示，乌克兰的无人机袭击在规模、射程和效果上已达到能够瘫痪俄罗斯柴油出口的程度。袭击发生前，俄罗斯是仅次于美国的世界第二大柴油供应国。
Ukraine's drone strikes have achieved a scale, range and effectiveness that they have crippled Russia's diesel exports, said Tatiana Mitrova, an expert on the Russian oil industry at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. Before the attacks, Russia was the second-largest diesel supplier in the world after the U.S.
因此，特朗普与普京达成的增加俄罗斯柴油出口的协议很可能胎死腹中，Kpler大宗商品研究主管马特·史密斯表示。“如果没有能源停火，似乎不太可能将他们谈论的柴油量重新带回市场，”史密斯说。
As a result, Trump's deal with Putin to boost Russian diesel exports is likely dead in the water, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. "It seems unlikely that they'll be able to bring the volume of diesel back to the market that they are talking about without an energy ceasefire," Smith said.
据华沙开源情报公司罗坎咨询的数据，基辅对俄罗斯炼油厂及相关石油基础设施的袭击从1月的11次几乎翻三倍，达到7月的31次。
Kyiv's strikes on Russian refineries and related oil infrastructure almost tripled to 31 in July compared to 11 in January, according to data from open-source intelligence firm Rochan Consulting in Warsaw, Poland.
根据Kpler的数据，袭击使俄罗斯柴油出口锐减超过75%，降至每天14.1万桶，而去年同期为每天60.8万桶。
The attacks slashed Russia's diesel exports by more than 75%, to 141,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, compared to 608,000 bpd in the same period last year, according to Kpler data.
作为回应，莫斯科7月禁止出口以保障国内供应。克里姆林宫本月恢复运输，以履行特朗普-普京协议。
In response, Moscow banned exports in July to preserve domestic supplies. The Kremlin resumed shipments this month to fulfill the Trump-Putin deal.
根据特朗普为缓解飙升燃油价格压力而达成的柴油协议，克里姆林宫同意在10月向全球市场供应约7.5万桶/日，11月供应约12.4万桶/日。但米特罗娃表示，与总需求相比，这些出口量只是九牛一毛。
Under Trump's diesel deal to relieve pressure on surging fuel prices, the Kremlin agreed to supply the global market with about 75,000 bpd in October and 124,000 bpd in November. But those export volumes are a rounding error compared to total demand, Mitrova said.
米特罗娃说，乌克兰现在定期发射成百上千架无人机组成的蜂群，而战争早期只有几十架。她表示，乌克兰打击的纵深也更深。7月，基辅袭击了位于西伯利亚、靠近哈萨克斯坦边境的俄罗斯最大炼油厂——鄂木斯克炼油厂，距离乌克兰超过1000英里（约1600公里）。
The Ukrainians are regularly launching swarms of drones now that number in the hundreds, compared to dozens earlier in the war, Mitrova said. They are also striking deeper into Russian territory, she said. In July, Kyiv hit Russia's largest refinery at Omsk, deep in Siberia near the Kazakhstan border, more than 1,000 miles from Ukraine.
米特罗娃说，乌克兰还学会了瞄准更难修复的复杂炼厂设备。她表示，被毁的储油罐只需几周即可修复。但分析师称，更换二次加工装置等设备需要俄罗斯境外的供应链。
And they have learned to target more complex refinery equipment that is harder to repair, Mitrova said. A destroyed fuel tank takes just a couple weeks to fix, she said. But replacing a secondary refining unit, for example, requires supply chains outside Russia, the analyst said.
“你不能直接在阿里巴巴上下单，”米特罗娃说。“你需要提前下单，因此无法快速获得这些设备。你必须补偿所有相关方的风险，因为[交易对手]在违反制裁。”她说：“如果关键设备被毁，你至少要等几个月。”
"You cannot just order it on Alibaba," Mitrova said. "You need to make your order in advance and therefore securing this equipment quickly is not possible. You need to compensate for the risks of all the parties involved because [counterparties] are violating sanctions." "You have to wait at least for several months if the right equipment is destroyed," she said.
随着中期选举不足两周，特朗普指责乌克兰导致柴油价格飙升，危及共和党的选情。
With midterm elections less than two weeks away, Trump has blamed Ukraine for surging diesel prices that are jeopardizing Republicans' election chances.
据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据，周二全国柴油平均价格为每加仑6.32美元，比去年同期上涨近75%。
Nationally, diesel cost $6.32 per gallon on average Tuesday, nearly 75% above the same period last year, according to AAA.
但柴油市场早已因特朗普2月下旬决定与伊朗开战而承压。德黑兰对霍尔木兹海峡油轮的袭击，以及其胡塞武装盟友对美国海湾阿拉伯盟友石油基础设施的打击，扰乱了中东燃油出口。
But the diesel market was already under pressure due to Trump's decision to go to war with Iran in late February. Tehran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes by its Houthi militant allies on oil infrastructure of U.S. Gulf Arab allies has disrupted fuel exports from the Middle East.
据Kpler的史密斯称，例如，经霍尔木兹海峡出口的柴油较去年减少约54万桶/日。他表示，由于俄罗斯和中东供应减少，全球柴油出口已下降约100万桶/日。
Diesel exports through Hormuz, for example, are down about 540,000 bpd compared to last year, Kpler's Smith said. Global diesel exports have fallen about 1 million bpd due to lost supplies from Russia and the Middle East, he said.
特朗普降低燃油价格的选择有限。根本问题是炼油能力短缺，这是由两场短期内似乎都不会结束的战争造成的破坏所致。美国炼油厂已在全负荷运转，以尽可能填补缺口。
Trump's options to reduce fuel prices are limited. The underlying problem is the shortfall of refining capacity due to damage from two wars that don't appear close to ending soon. U.S. refiners are already working at maximum capacity to fill the gap as much as possible.
国际能源署本月警告称，柴油供应可能将在2027年之前持续紧张。“柴油紧张局面在未来几个月可能将持续，价格将维持高位，”史密斯表示。
The International Energy Agency warned this month that diesel supplies will likely remain constrained well into 2027. "The diesel tightness is likely going to persist in the coming months and prices are going to remain elevated," Smith said.