非党派选举分析机构《库克政治报告》周三发布的民调数据显示，民主党在11月重夺参议院多数席位所需的三个关键席位上均处于领先地位。该民调由民主党公司新河战略和共和党公司GS战略集团联合实施，结果显示民主党候选人在得克萨斯州、爱荷华州和俄亥俄州的参议院竞选中领先。库克调查的三场州长竞选中，民主党候选人也在其中两场领先。
Polling numbers from nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report released Wednesday found Democrats leading in three seats critical to retaking the Senate majority in November. The survey, conducted in concert with Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, placed Democrats ahead in the Texas, Iowa and Ohio Senate races. The party's candidates also lead in two out of the three gubernatorial contests Cook surveyed In Texas, Cook found state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.
在得克萨斯州，库克发现州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）以5个百分点领先州检察长肯·帕克斯顿（共和党），支持率为49%对44%。这名民主党人的领先优势处于民调误差范围内。
The Democrat's lead was within the poll's margin of error. he Texas Senate election has been pushed into the national spotlight, as Democrats see the race as their best chance of winning a U.S. Senate seat in the Lone Star State, something the party has not done in over 30 years.
得克萨斯州参议院选举已成为全国关注焦点，民主党视该竞选为该党在“孤星州”赢得联邦参议员席位的最佳机会，这是该党30多年来未曾实现的壮举。自该州共和党初选以来，塔拉里科一直保持着对其共和党挑战者的微弱领先优势，当时特朗普总统在初选中支持帕克斯顿而非现任参议员约翰·科宁（共和党）。库克主编艾米·沃尔特在其分析中指出，在得克萨斯州人中，帕克斯顿“不受欢迎的程度几乎是总统的两倍”。
Talarico has maintained a narrow lead over his GOP challenger since the state's GOP primary, when President Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R). Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter noted in her analysis that Paxton is “almost twice as unpopular” as the president among Texans.
但尽管帕克斯顿在参议院竞选中落后，库克报告显示得州州长格雷格·阿博特以微弱的2个百分点领先州众议员吉娜·伊诺霍萨（民主党），这一优势同样处于误差范围内。这位现任州长在大多数民调中仍保持领先，但其竞争形势比几个月前预期的要胶着得多。
But while Paxton trails in the Senate race, the Cook report showed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) by a narrow two points, also within the error margin. The incumbent governor still leads in most polls but finds himself in a much closer race than it appeared just a few months ago.
《国会山报》的合作伙伴决策台总部（DDHQ）给出塔拉里科在参议院竞选中获胜的概率为55%，阿博特连任第四届州长的可能性为70%。
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, gives Talarico a 55 percent chance to win the Senate race and Abbott a 70 percent likelihood of winning a fourth term in office.
在爱荷华州，州众议员乔什·图雷克（民主党）以2个百分点领先联邦众议员阿什利·辛森（共和党），支持率为46%对44%。沃尔特在对该竞选的分析中写道，图雷克的好感度比华盛顿的其他民主党人高出28个百分点，这或许能解释为何他在特朗普以两位数优势赢下的州份中能够领先。
In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek (D) led Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent. In her analysis of the race, Walter wrote Turek is viewed more favorably than other Democrats in Washington by 28 points, which may explain how he could be ahead in a state Trump won by double digits.
有趣的是，在爱荷华州，库克发现自由党候选人托马斯·拉恩获得了8%的选票，在一场势均力敌的竞争中可能起到决定性作用。根据库克的民调，该州的州长竞争是竞争程度最低的，州审计长罗布·桑德（民主党）以11个百分点的优势领先扎克·拉恩（共和党）。桑德获胜将标志着民主党实现席位翻转，因为爱荷华州现任州长金·雷诺兹是共和党人。DDHQ给予辛森55%的几率为共和党守住参议院席位，而桑德有72%的几率赢得爱荷华州州长职位。
Interestingly, in Iowa, Cook finds that the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Laehn, takes 8 percent of the vote and could prove decisive in a close race. The Hawkeye State’s gubernatorial contest is the least competitive in Cook’s poll, as state Auditor Rob Sand (D) leads Zach Lahn (R) by 11 points. A Sand win would mark a flip for Democrats, as Iowa's current governor, Kim Reynolds, is a Republican. DDHQ gives Hinson a 55 percent chance to hold the Senate seat for the GOP, while Sand has a 72 percent chance to claim Iowa governor's mansion.
在俄亥俄州，前参议员谢罗德·布朗（民主党）在其复出竞选中以6个百分点的优势领先参议员乔恩·赫斯特德（共和党），得票率为49%对43%。在该州的州长竞选中，民主党以类似的优势领先，艾米·阿克顿（民主党）以5个百分点领先维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（共和党），得票率为49%对44%。这场州长竞选因拉马斯瓦米的竞选团队推出了一则攻击广告，内容涉及阿克顿疏远的母亲，而成为争议焦点。
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leads Sen. Jon Husted (R) by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent, in his comeback bid. Democrats lead by a similar margin in the Buckeye State’s gubernatorial race, with Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The governor’s race has been the source of controversy after Ramaswamy’s campaign launched an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother.
前俄亥俄州参议员、副总统万斯周三在该州为拉马斯瓦米和赫斯特德举行集会助选。DDHQ给予布朗53%的几率赢得参议院席位，给予阿克顿60%的几率赢得州长竞选。
Vice President Vance, a former Ohio senator, rallied for Ramaswamy and Husted in the state Wednesday. DDHQ gives Brown a 53 percent chance to take the Senate seat, and Acton a 60 percent chance to win the governor’s race.
库克的民调发现，民主党在得克萨斯州、爱荷华州和俄亥俄州仍不受欢迎；全国民主党的好感度在这三个州均低于特朗普。即便如此，GS Strategies民调专家格雷格·斯特林普尔表示，选民之所以选择民主党而非共和党，是因为他们对总统感到不满。“选民对缺乏降低生活成本的领导力感到非常愤怒，他们似乎愿意推动民主党在可靠的红州制造冷门胜利，尽管民主党比特朗普总统或共和党更不受欢迎，”斯特林普尔说。
Cook's poll found Democrats are still unpopular in Texas, Iowa and Ohio; the national party's favorability sits below Trump's in all three of these states. Even so, GS Strategies pollster Greg Strimple said voters are choosing them over Republicans because they are dissatisfied with the president. “Voters are so upset with the lack of leadership on reducing their cost of living, they appear willing to propel Democrats to upset victories in reliably Republican states despite the fact that Democrats are less popular than either President Trump or Republicans,” Strimple said.
“选民不满的程度确实前所未有。”沃尔特警告称，虽然民主党领先，但这三场竞选都很胶着，大多数都在误差范围内。
“The level of voter discontent is truly unprecedented.”Walter cautioned that while Democrats lead, all three races are close, and most are within the margin of error.
沃尔特写道：“值得注意的是，虽然这三位民主党人在参议院竞选中均领先其共和党对手，但无人获得过半选票，表明这些竞选的结果尚未尘埃落定。最后两周——以及未决定选民和第三党选民的走向——将最终决定参议院控制权的归属。”
“It’s worth noting that while all three Democrats are leading their Republican opponents in the Senate contests, none have captured a majority of the vote, suggesting that these races are not a done deal,” Walter wrote. “The closing two weeks — and the movement of undecided and third-party voters — will ultimately determine the contest for Senate control.”